The hot-stove has been on hiatus since Major League Baseball locked out players on Dec. 1.
It’s the first work stoppage in 27 years, when the 1994 World Series was wiped out due to a strike.
That unfortunate outcome is a long way away.
If the current dispute is resolved after the Christmas holidays, it will go down as a mere footnote on the 2022 season. Some casual fans might not even notice.
And, let’s be honest, a little bit of a break is not the worst thing in the world after a wild November that saw teams spend more than $2 billion in a frenzy of deals before the deadline.
The break also gives us a chance to open up this edition of the beat writer mailbag.
Q: I like the signing of Javier Baez. It’s a manageable contract and if Baez opts out in 2023, that’s OK. Ten years for Carlos Correa made me nervous. -- RY
Ten years for Correa may in fact be too long. But over the next six years, I think it’s a good bet that Correa will be better (and maybe significantly better) than Baez.
There’s certainly a case to be made that the Tigers should have said, “Who cares what happens in 2028-2031?” -- which is when Correa’s hypothetical 10-year deal is likely to be least advantageous.
As for the opt-out clause, it’s there for the player, not for the team. After the 2023 season, Baez will get to decide whether he can do better than four years and $96 million on the open market.
If the answer is yes, it will mean he had a monster 2023 campaign and his departure would leave the Tigers with a 5 or 6 WAR void in the middle of the lineup.
On the other hand, if Baez doesn’t meet expectations, he’s not going anywhere, and the Tigers will be saddled with those final four costly seasons.
All this is not to say I’m down on the Baez signing. I just don’t share the optimism that he’s magically going to become a different hitter after 3,000 plate appearances. He will strike out a ton and chase a lot of pitches. The Tigers hope he will play good enough defense and hit enough home runs to make up for it.
I think he will in 2022 and 2023. My confidence drops as he -- and his contract -- get older.
Q: Is Tucker Barnhart just a one-year guy or will we try to extend him, giving up on Jake Rogers? -- TB
Although this winter has proven once again that good catching -- or even average catching -- is very costly, I’m not sure there should be any rush to extend Barnhart before he’s played a game at Comerica Park.
I don’t think the Tigers have given up on Jake Rogers, but he’ll be 27 in 2022 and coming off a major surgery. Many catchers have successfully returned from Tommy John. Others have not.
If the Tigers do end up offering an extension to Barnhart, it shouldn’t be seen as a slight of Rogers, just a team wisely trying to hedge its bets.
Q: How are minor league teams and players affected by the lockout. Is their 2022 season in jeopardy? -- BJ
For the most part, no. In the (hopefully) unlikely event that the 2022 MLB season is delayed or canceled due to the lockout, the minor league seasons should go on.
The only players who would be off-limits are those currently on the 40-man roster of an MLB team, or players who ended the 2021 season on a 40-man roster.
So not-yet-union members like Riley Greene or Spencer Torkelson could play for the Mud Hens without a problem. But someone like infielder Kody Clemens, added to the 40-man roster just before the lockout, could not.
Q: Can teams still talk to potential players during the lockout? -- KB
Generally, no. Nor can they talk about them. Nor can MLB.com even use their images (at least according to the league’s prevailing legal advice).
The only transactions you’ll see during the current freeze will be minor-league deals for players not on a 40-man roster and not in the union.
Q: Do you see the Tigers trading for a starting pitcher? -- SW
Do you think the Tigers will target another free-agent pitcher or go with a young arm in Joey Wentz or Alex Faedo? -- KC
Yes, I think another starting pitcher is definitely on the agenda. Although there are some interesting ones available on the trade market (including three on the Oakland Athletics alone), the asking price might be too high.
The Tigers will be shopping primarily but not exclusively on the one-year free-agent market. A handful of intriguing arms are already off the board, including Corey Kluber, Michael Wacha and Dylan Bundy.
As of today, lefty Tyler Alexander would be the No. 5 starter. But the Tigers would probably prefer that he function as a sort of “sixth starter,” bouncing between roles as necessary.
Wentz and Faedo will be in Triple-A Toledo for depth and are very likely to see time in Detroit in 2022, but probably not from Day 1.
What is your sense of Ryan Kreidler’s future with the Tigers now that they have Javier Baez likely long-term at shortstop? -- HC
The Tigers only have two prospects who are good enough to affect the club’s long-term planning: Tork and Greene. Kreidler has shot up the charts over the last year, but he’s not yet in that territory.
If the year were 2019, Kreidler might go into the season with a chance to be the everyday shortstop. But in 2022, he’s going to have to fight and claw for every scrap of opportunity like anybody else.
Certainly, a position change is a possibility at some point. But much of Kreidler’s value is in his defense, and his bat would have to carry more of the freight at second or third.
I think it’s best to let things play out. Maybe Kreidler becomes a utility option. Maybe he becomes a midseason trade chip. Maybe he takes a step back in 2022 and the Tigers are really glad that they signed Baez.
Would Matt Boyd come back if we match another team’s offer? An incentive-laden minimum deal would make sense. -- LF
I don’t think the Tigers or Boyd have burned any bridges, so a reunion someday is always possible, even if it is unlikely to happen this winter.
If Boyd were interested in a low-cost, incentive-laden deal, I think it would have already happened.
Boyd is about to turn 31, so it was important for him to reach free agency for the first time in his career and see where it takes him.
The Tigers’ decision not to tender was understandable; so was Boyd’s decision to accept nothing less.
What are the odds we have an Albert Pujols scenario with Miguel Cabrera this year or next? -- TA
I wrote about that possibility in the spring when Cabrera was struggling at the plate. To a certain extent, that will be Cabrera’s decision. Pujols forced the issue with the Angels by struggling to accept a less-than-full-time role.
The Tigers aren’t at that point yet, and maybe they never will be.
But the first test will be in spring training. Will the Tigers nudge Cabrera a couple spots lower in the batting order? Will he mind?
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