Cincinnati football has made Group of Five history in College Football Playoff

For decades, Group of Five schools have dreamed of playing for a national title. History was made in 2021 as Cincinnati football earned a semifinal berth.

Over the past three decades, national championship systems restricted who might be deemed worthy of a shot at the ultimate prize. Since 1992, when the Bowl Coalition closed the loophole that allowed BYU to claim the 1984 national championship, only members of affiliated power conferences made the final cut to play for the crown. This season Cincinnati finally unlocked the gate and became the first Group of Five contender to finally get a chance in one of these systems.

Cincinnati accomplished the feat by following a blueprint I laid out three years ago after UCF was unceremoniously left out of the field for a second straight season. Let’s walk through each of those six prongs and see how well Cincinnati stuck to the script.

1. Finish undefeated and win conference title (then do it again… and again)
   A year after beating Memphis to claim the AAC crown with a perfect 13-0 record, Cincinnati successfully defended their conference title and secured a second straight undefeated regular season. By going undefeated for a second straight year, Cincinnati followed in UCF’s footsteps—but also had a 13th game both times, which hurricanes prevented the Knights from achieving in both the 2017 and 2018 regular seasons.
2. Finish regular season among the top 15 in both offense and defense
   The Bearcats ranked ninth in points scored and fourth in points allowed at the end of championship weekend. In Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for ESPN, Cincinnati’s offense ranked 11th  and the defense ranked ninth. Other metrics have Cincinnati falling squarely within this threshold of dominance.
3. Knock off at least two ranked Power Five opponents
   Here Cincinnati didn’t quite meet all the criteria. Indiana, though ranked in the preseason, was already out of the polls by the time Cincinnati toppled the Hoosiers by two touchdowns in Bloomington. The road win over Notre Dame was far more valuable, as the Fighting Irish won every other game in the 2021 regular season. While they only knocked off one ranked Power Five opponent, the Bearcats came close enough given how well Notre Dame finished.
4. Play a ranked opponent in conference championship game
   Houston entered the AAC championship game ranked at No. 21 in the College Football Playoff committee’s Top 25. That provided a final data point against a ranked opponent, bolstering the Bearcats’ schedule strength in the process.
5. There must be no other undefeated teams in the FBS
   Alabama’s victory over Georgia in the SEC championship game eliminated the only other undefeated team still standing in the FBS, making Cincinnati the last team with an unblemished record.
6. Upsets must take place in several Power Five championship games
   Utah’s takedown of Oregon gave the Pac-12 a three-loss champion. Baylor’s goal-line stand to win the Big 12 championship over Oklahoma State prevented a committee debate between the Bearcats and the Cowboys. The ACC, with two finalists ranked in the mid-teens and sporting two losses apiece, had already played its way out of the conversation. Cincinnati got all the help they needed, just as Northern Illinois did back in 2012.

Other than seeing Indiana completely flame out in 2021 after a breakthrough 2020 campaign, Cincinnati had everything else fall into place to allow for this historic moment. A blueprint that felt like an impossibility when I first wrote it out came to fruition just three years later.

Nothing will ever be the same after this season for Group of Five teams.

The 35-20 win over Houston validated the decision of Cincinnati’s veteran-packed roster to come back for another run at the College Football Playoff after COVID-19 played a major impact on the shape of the 2020 campaign. Luke Fickell, courted for Power Five jobs over the past few years, was rewarded for sticking around and continuing to build this program in the Queen City. After playing Georgia close in last year’s Peach Bowl, the Bearcats get another shot at an SEC powerhouse on an even bigger stage at the Cotton Bowl.

This is also the culmination of dreams Bearcats fans have harbored for decades. From Conference USA to the Big East, Cincinnati made one leap to major-league status in the 2000s only to see their stock diminished and their athletic department left out in the cold after the last big game of musical chairs. Cincinnati would have qualified for a four-team field in 2009, back when the BCS restricted playoff opportunities to two teams. But an undefeated Big East champion was never going to get the nod over undefeated SEC and Big 12 champions, even though the Big East was still an affiliated conference at the time.

But the significance of this historic invitation spans far wider than just validation for the current Cincinnati roster or a longtime dream finally realized for Bearcats fans. Cincinnati’s victory gives new hope to Group of Five programs—even before the College Football Playoff makes its seemingly inevitable expansion to 12 teams.

Making the College Football Playoff this year cannot make up for all the missed opportunities of former BCS Busters like Utah, TCU, and Boise State, or those programs like Tulane in 1998 and Marshall in 1999 that went perfect but unrewarded. What this victory allows, though, is for new Cinderellas to dream about playing their way into a moment in the spotlight and a chance to make history.

The stigma around Group of Five teams will not dissipate entirely with Cincinnati’s inclusion in the 2021-2022 College Football Playoff, even if Luke Fickell’s team goes on to win it all on January 10 in Indianapolis. Until the playoff expands further, teams will still require a perfect storm to fall just right to have any real chance at cracking the final four.

The next Cincinnati will face the same questions about its schedule strength, the conference in which it plays, and what it means to “deserve” a spot in the playoff. What it will no longer face, though, is years of evidence that demonstrated an artificial barrier that gave the benefit of the doubt to blemished Power Five teams and ignored all advanced metrics that said some Group of Five heavyweights warranted a shot.

The gate is now open thanks to Cincinnati, and a new chapter is written in the saga surrounding a still-mythical national championship.