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Feinberg Forecast: Scott Updates His Projections as Race Enters December

The Hollywood Reporter
The Hollywood Reporter
 2021-12-06
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PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter ‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

F rontrunners
West Side Story
(Disney, Dec. 10, trailer )
Belfast
(Focus, Nov. 12, trailer )
King Richard
(Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer )
The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer )
Dune
(Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer )
Tick, Tick… Boom!
(Netflix, Nov. 19, trailer )
C’mon C’mon
(A24, Nov. 19, trailer )
Being the Ricardos
(Amazon, Dec. 10, trailer )
House of Gucci (MGM/UA, Nov. 24, trailer )
A Hero (Amazon, Nov. 12, trailer )

Possibilities
Don’t Look Up
(Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer )
Nightmare Alley
(Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer )
The Hand of God
(Netflix, Dec. 3, trailer )
The Lost Daughter
(Netflix, Dec. 31, trailer )
Licorice Pizza
(MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailer )
Summer of Soul
(Searchlight, July 2, trailer )

Longer Shots
CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailer )
The Harder They Fall (Netflix, Nov. 3, trailer )
Flee (Neon/Participant, Dec. 3, trailer )
Parallel Mothers
(Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer )
Cyrano
(MGM/UA, Dec. 31, trailer )

*BEST DIRECTOR*

F rontrunners
Steven Spielberg ( West Side Story ) — podcast
Kenneth Branagh ( Belfast )
Denis Villeneuve ( Dune )
Jane Campion ( The Power of the Dog )
Asghar Farhadi ( A Hero ) — podcast

Possibilities
Guillermo del Toro ( Nightmare Alley ) — podcast
Reinaldo Marcus Green ( King Richard )
Paolo Sorrentino ( The Hand of God )
Paul Thomas Anderson ( Licorice Pizza )
Mike Mills ( C’mon C’mon )
Aaron Sorkin ( Being the Ricardos ) — podcast

Longer Shots
Adam McKay ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Maggie Gyllenhaal ( The Lost Daughter )
Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Tick, Tick … Boom! ) — podcast
Pedro Almodóvar ( Parallel Mothers ) — podcast
Ridley Scott ( House of Gucci ) — podcast

*BEST ACTOR*

F rontrunners
Will Smith ( King Richard ) — podcast
Andrew Garfield ( Tick, Tick … Boom! ) — podcast
Benedict Cumberbatch ( The Power of the Dog ) — podcast
Joaquin Phoenix ( C’mon C’mon )
Jude Hill ( Belfast )

Possibilities
Bradley Cooper ( Nightmare Alley )
Ansel Elgort ( West Side Story )
Javier Bardem ( Being the Ricardos )
Leonardo DiCaprio ( Don’t Look Up )
Denzel Washington ( The Tragedy of Macbeth ) — podcast
Simon Rex ( Red Rocket ) — podcast

Longer Shots
Peter Dinklage ( Cyrano )
Adam Driver ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Nicolas Cage ( Pig ) — podcast
Filippo Scotti ( The Hand of God )
Oscar Isaac ( The Card Counter ) — podcast
Mahershala Ali ( Swan Song ) — podcast
Cooper Hoffman ( Licorice Pizza )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Clifton Collins Jr. ( Jockey )
Frankie Faison ( The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain )
Tim Blake Nelson ( Old Henry )
Dan Stevens ( I’m Your Man )

*BEST ACTRESS*

F rontrunners
Rachel Zegler ( West Side Story )
Kristen Stewart ( Spencer ) — podcast
Nicole Kidman ( Being the Ricardos ) — podcast
Lady Gaga ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Olivia Colman ( The Lost Daughter ) — podcast

Possibilities
Penélope Cruz ( Parallel Mothers )
Emilia Jones ( CODA )
Jennifer Hudson ( Respect )
Jessica Chastain ( The Eyes of Tammy Faye ) — podcast
Alana Haim ( Licorice Pizza )
Tessa Thompson ( Passing )
Frances McDormand ( The Tragedy of Macbeth )

Longer Shots
Jodie Comer ( The Last Duel )
Halle Berry ( Bruised )
Jennifer Lawrence ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Renate Reinsve ( The Worst Person in the World )
Agathe Rousselle ( Titane )
Haley Bennett ( Cyrano )

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

F rontrunners
Mike Faist ( West Side Story )
Jamie Dornan ( Belfast )
Ciaran Hinds ( Belfast )
Kodi Smit-McPhee ( The Power of the Dog )
Woody Norman ( C’mon C’mon )

Possibilities
Jared Leto ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
J.K. Simmons ( Being the Ricardos )
Jesse Plemons ( The Power of the Dog )
David Alvarez ( West Side Story )
Jon Bernthal ( King Richard )
Troy Kotsur ( CODA )

Longer Shots
Jonah Hill ( Don’t Look Up )
Ben Affleck ( The Tender Bar ) — podcast
Richard Jenkins ( Nightmare Alley )
David Strathairn ( Nightmare Alley )
Bradley Cooper ( Licorice Pizza )

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

F rontrunners
Rita Moreno ( West Side Story ) — podcast
Aunjanue Ellis ( King Richard ) — podcast
Caitriona Balfe ( Belfast )
Kirsten Dunst ( The Power of the Dog )
Ariana DeBose ( West Side Story )

Possibilities
Cate Blanchett ( Nightmare Alley ) — podcast
Judi Dench ( Belfast ) — podcast
Gaby Hoffmann ( C’mon C’mon )
Saniyya Sidney ( King Richard )
Nina Arianda ( Being the Ricardos )
Ruth Negga ( Passing ) — podcast

Longer Shots
Meryl Streep ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Jessie Buckley ( The Lost Daughter )
Dakota Johnson ( The Lost Daughter ) — podcast
Marlee Matlin ( CODA )
Kathryn Hunter ( The Tragedy of Macbeth )

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

F rontrunners
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
West Side Story (Tony Kushner)
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Steven Levenson)

Possibilities
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe)
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro)
Passing (Rebecca Hall)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen)
House of Gucci
(Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)

Longer Shots
CODA (Sian Heder)
Cyrano (Erica Schmidt)
The Tender Bar (William Monahan)
In the Heights (Quiara Alegría Hudes)
T he Many Saints of Newark (David Chase & Lawrence Konner) — podcast (Chase)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

F rontrunners
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
C’mon Cmon
(Mike Mills)
Being the Ricardos
(Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
A Hero
(Asghar Farhadi) — podcast

Possibilities
The Hand of God (Paolo Sorrentino)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay)
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar) — podcast
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Card Counter (Paul Schrader)
Last Night in Soho (Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)

Longer Shots
Spencer (Steven Knight)
The Harder They Fall
(Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)
Red Rocket
(Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)
The French Dispatch
(Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)
Stillwater
(Tom McCarthy) — podcast

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Projected Shortlist
Summer of Soul (Searchlight)
Flee
(Neon/Participant)
The Rescue
(Nat Geo)
Attica
(Showtime)
Ascension (MTV)
The Velvet Underground (Apple) — podcast (Todd Haynes)
Procession (Netflix)
The First Wave
(Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman)
Becoming Cousteau
(Nat Geo)
Val
(Amazon)
The Sparks Brothers (Focus)
Found (Netflix)
Julia (Sony Classics)
Francesco
(Discovery+)
My Name Is Pauli Murray
(Amazon)

Possibilities
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (Focus)
Citizen Ashe
(Magnolia)
Not Going Quietly
(Greenwich)
Introducing, Selma Blair
(Discovery+)
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry (Apple)
Tom Petty: Somewhere You Feel Free
(YouTube)
Rita Moreno: Just a Girl Who Decided to Go for It (Roadside)

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
45 Days: The Fight for a Nation
(self-distributed)
Ailey
(Neon)
All Light, Everywhere
(Super LTD)
A Cop Movie
(Netflix)
Bring Your Own Brigade (CBSN/Paramount)
Fauci (Nat Geo)
Faya Dayi (Janus Films)
Final Account (Focus)
Homeroom (Hulu)
In the Same Breath (HBO)
The Last Forest (Gullane)
LFG (HBO Max)
The Lost Leonardo (Sony Classics)
President (Greenwich)
The Real Charlie Chaplin (Showtime)
Rebel Hearts (Discovery+)
Stray (Magnolia)
Street Gang: How We Got to Sesame Street (HBO)
Who We Are (Sony Classics)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
A Hero (Iran) — podcast (Asghar Farhadi)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Flee (Denmark)
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Possibilities
Titane (France)
Drive My Car (Japan)
Zatopek (Czech Republic)

Still to See
Brighton 4th
(Georgia)
Casablanca Beats
(Morocco)
A Cop Movie (Mexico)
Costa Brava, Lebanon (Lebanon)
Digger (Greece)
Do Not Hesitate (Netherlands)
Drunken Birds (Canada)
Escape from Mogadishu (South Korea)
The Falls (Taiwan)
The Good Boss (Spain)
Great Freedom (Austria)
Hive (Kosovo)
I’m Your Man (Germany)
Lamb (Iceland)
Leave No Traces (Poland)
Let It Be Morning (Israel)
Memoria (Colombia)
Oasis (Serbia)
Olga (Switzerland)
Post Mortem (Hungary)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
Sumergible (Ecuador)
Unclenching the Fist (Russia)
White Building (Cambodia)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Projected Shortlist
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell ( No Time to Die )
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott ( King Richard )
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King ( Respect )
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael ( Annette )
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison ( Belfast )
“Guns Go Bang” — Jay-Z, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Jeymes Samuel ( The Harder They Fall )
“Just Look Up” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Taura Stinson ( Don’t Look Up )
“Fire in the Sky” — Anderson .Paak ( Shang-Chi and the L egend of the Ten Rings )
“Million to One” — Camila Cabello & Scott Harris ( Cinderella )
“My Father’s Daughter” — Glen Hansard, Cat Power & Eddie Vedder ( Flag Day )
“Every Letter” — Matt Berninger, Carin Besser, Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner [“The National”] ( Cyrano )
“We Love Each Other” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael ( Annette )
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries ( CODA )
“Home All Summer” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( In the Heights ) — podcast
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren ( Four Good Days ) — podcast

Possibilities
“Believe” — Aloe Blacc & Daniel Pemberton ( The Rescue )
“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg ( Dear Evan Hansen )

Still to See
“Your Song Saved My Life” — U2 ( Sing 2 )
“Never Gonna Tame You” — TK ( The Mustangs: America’s Wild Horses ) — podcast
“At the Automat” — Mel Brooks ( The Automat )
“Secret Sister” — Rufus Wainwright ( Rebel Hearts )
“Right Where I Belong” — Brian Wilson & Jim James ( Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road )
“Blome Swete Lilie Flour” — Daniel Hart ( The Green Knight )
“Inside Your Heart” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“Keep the Beat” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“My Own Drum” — Missy Elliott & Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Encanto ) — podcast
“Just for Me” — SZA & Saint JHN ( Space Jam: A New Legacy )
“On My Way” — Alexandra Lahey, Sophie Louise Payten & Gabriel Strum ( The Mitchells vs. the Machines )
“We Win” — Kirk Franklin, Dominique “Lil Baby” Jones, Cynthia Nunn & Justin Gregory Smith ( Space Jam: A New Legacy )
“Call Me Cruella” — Florence + The Machine ( Cruella )
“Lead the Way” — Jhene Aiko & James Newton Howard ( Raya and the Last Dragon )
“Hourglass” — Mary J. Blige ( Mary J. Blige’s My Life ) — podcast
“Chasing Dreams” — Goze & Tyler Strickland ( Changing the Game )
“Beginning Middle End” — Leah Nobel & Quinn Redmond ( To All the Boys: Always and Forever )
“Only One Way to Fly” — Jeremiah Fraites & Wesley Schultz [The Lumineers] ( The Starling )
“Tu Draumst [To Dream]” — Tara Nome Doyle & Isobel Waller-Bridge ( Munich: The Edge of War )
“Remain” — Saleka Night Shyamalan ( Old )

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