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With the 9 p.m. hour on CNN newly vacant due to the firing of Chris Cuomo, the 11 p.m. hour on MSNBC coming open with the departure of Brian Williams, and the 7 p.m. slot on Fox News vacant for just about a full year now, it seems a natural storyline to want to examine the major changes on the horizon in cable news. CNN chief media corespondent Brian Stelter did just that in his Reliable Sources newsletter on Sunday night — but also added one other vacancy to the list.

“Early next year MSNBC’s 9pm hour will also need a new host, since Rachel Maddow is stepping back from her daily duties,” Stelter wrote.

Stelter is leaning on his own reporting in making this statement. Back in August, he wrote that two sources told him Maddow will shift her show to more of a weekly format in early 2022. And the Daily Beast had similar reporting, noting that Maddow’s “nightly show will cease to air in its current form around spring of 2022.” But

what exactly does that mean?

Color me skeptical of the notion that MSNBC will soon have a Maddow-sized hole at 9 p.m.

The contract extension that Maddow signed over the summer is reported to pay her $30 million a year through the 2024 election. According to those reports, the working terms of the deal call for Maddow to “end” her nightly show this spring, and transition to a weekly broadcast which will produce roughly 30 episodes per year.

If that is true, it is quite simply — from a network perspective — one of the worst contracts in television history. Yes, CNN wanted to hire her, and yes she had top agents, but it’s still impossible to believe that NBC would have given so much for so little.

A once-a-week show does not stand to have anywhere near the impact for MSNBC as Maddow’s current nightly program. The idea that the network would pay her nine figures for an occasional show and a Peacock documentary or two seems like a massive reach.

One would think if MSNBC had any sense, the deal was a stopgap move. Anything to keep The Rachel Maddow Show on the air, because the network currently has nothing comparable with which to replace it.

And just as they got Maddow to give them a few extra months until next spring, I am betting the current MSNBC plan is to try to get a few months out

of her at a time, right through 2024 — if they have their way.

Now, I believe that Rachel Maddow believes that she is ending her show as it currently exists in the next few months. Reports last year made clear that doing a nightly show has left her drained, and that she’s insisting on stepping back to spend more time with family. I wouldn’t even dismiss the possibility there is contractual language spelling out Maddow’s reduction in duties.

But before the clock actually strikes midnight, I am betting the network will lean on Maddow to stay atop the 9 p.m. show in some way. One scenario I can easily envision calls for the network, at first, asking Maddow to hold the fort for just a few more months to groom a successor. Then, perhaps after a summer hiatus to recharge her batteries (which the network could frame as a long-term audition for a potential replacement), the network would lean on Maddow to hang in through the midterms. Maddow is loyal to the progressive cause and undoubtedly does not want to see Republicans take the majority in Congress. Beyond any sense of duty she might feel to the network, it’s quite likely she’ll want to have as much impact as she can on the 2022 election — which means staying on the air.

That said, do I expect that she will continue taping a show every single night

48 weeks per year? No, I don’t. But what if she taped multiple shows in a day? What if she were to share the workload with a new host, while she remains “executive producer” of a show that bears her name?

Back in August, as rumors flew about contract talks breaking down between MSNBC and their signature star, this reporter published a column titled: You Don’t REALLY Believe Rachel Maddow is Considering Leaving MSNBC, Do You? That came as Stelter and others breathlessly ran with the rumors that Maddow was getting ready to walk.

As I pointed out in that column, a parting of ways never really made sense for either side. Maddow had all sorts of leverage with MSNBC that she wouldn’t have been able to utilize with another outlet or an independent venture. And MSNBC President Rashida Jones, who is still fairly new in her role as chief of the network, could ill-afford to lose her top star. Both sides had strong incentives to make a deal work, and they did.

Nothing has changed on the MSNBC side. They very badly need The Rachel Maddow Show to continue. The guess here is that they will do whatever they have to in order to keep Maddow in the big chair every night at 9 p.m. That might mean a reduction in schedule. That might mean long summer vacations. That might mean yet another pay bump.

Even though it’s

being reported as a given, the end of the nightly Rachel Maddow Show is something I’m going to have to see before I believe it.