Danny Jansen: A Key to Kevin Gausman and the 2022 Blue Jays

Kevin Gausman has a unique distinction: The last pitcher to ever pitch to Buster Posey.

The final delivery of Posey's career was a splitter away, drifting out of the zone as the three-time champion dropped to a single knee in the NLDS. Gausman's toss didn't make it to Posey's glove, dribbling off Matt Beaty's bat for a ground-ball out, but it joined a long list of successful splitters between the Giants' battery.

The Gausman/Posey tandem emerged as one of the best in baseball in 2021. Posey re-emerged as one of the best two-way backstops in the league, Gausman posted a career year, and both pitcher and catcher earned All-Sar nods. But with the Giant catcher retired and Gausman now a Blue Jay, a hole is open behind the plate for Toronto's 110 million-dollar-man. Insert: Danny Jansen.

Replacing Buster Posey is no simple task—he leaves Hall of Fame-sized shoes Toronto's Jansen can't be expected to fully fill. However, in some of the ways that matter most, Jansen could be the perfect new battery-mate for Gausman and prove crucial to the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays.

In Baseball Prospectus' blocking runs added metric (BlkR), Posey led all catchers in baseball in 2021 with +0.8. In 2020, Jansen led American League catchers in the same stat. Though Jansen slipped down the list in 2021, missing time with injuries, he ranked within the top 20 in BlkR again despite having less than half the opportunities of everyday catchers like Salvador Perez and Yadier Molina. A quick glance at Gausman's splitter heat map (below) shows why blocking is a useful talent for Toronto's eldest backstop.

“[Gausman's splitter] has some serious bite," Jansen told Sportsnet's Blair & Barker earlier this winter. "I'll probably be doing some blocking work on the splitter off the machine to kinda get used to that action, just gonna be the reps. He can throw it for strikes but it’s a wipeout pitch too, so gotta be on your toes.”

In 2021, three of the four Blue Jay pitchers who threw splitters (Jeremy Beasley, Joakim Soria, Rafael Dolis, Trent Thornton) posted ERAs lower than their season averages when tossing to Jansen, and Soria's 108 ERA came in just .1 IP. Gausman throws more splits than any of those 2021 Blue Jays, leaning on the diving pitch over 40% of the time, but Jansen seems up to the task. The Jays have four catchers on the 40-man roster but have been open to personal catchers in the past, pairing Jansen with Hyun Jin Ryu and Alejandro Kirk with Robbie Ray.

From 2018 to 2020, Gausman allowed 31 stolen bases (22nd most in baseball) and a success rate of almost 80%. With an elite chase rate, Gausman can throw his split-finger out of the zone over 66% of the time, but working in the dirt has left him exposed to the free base, until 2021. 

Runners attempted a stolen base on Gausman .76 times per start from 2018 to 2020. Last year, runners tried for the SB just .33 times per start and stole under 10 bases for the first time since 2017 (in a full season). Jansen's career CS% is lower than that of Posey or SF's other 2021 catcher, Curt Casali, but his blocking prowess could help Gausman keep runners on first again in 2022.

"I definitely love when guys can block the ball well," Gausman said in his introductory Blue Jays press conference. "I felt like the two catchers that I had last year were really good at that. A big reason why guys didn't take the extra base on me was because they were so good at blocking it."

Before we carry on, let's make one thing clear: Danny Jansen is not Buster Posey, nor can he be expected to be. Posey won an MVP, a Gold Glove, was a four-time Silver Slugger, and posted an .889 OPS in his final season. With other, seemingly more offensive, catching options in Kirk and Gabriel Moreno pushing for playing time, Jansen's below-average offense and top-shelf defense is a tradeoff the Jays have been willing to make. But at the plate, Jansen has shown flashes of more—the potential to blast open his own ceiling before a top prospect steals his job.

You may have missed it in the suspense of a playoff race, but Jansen was the best catcher in baseball in the final month of the 2021 season. His wRC+ (186) was almost thirty points higher than any other backstop and his 17 September RBI were more than every catcher but Salvador Perez.

The keys to Jansen’s offensive success aren’t a mystery—he flourishes when he pulls the ball in the air. On pulled baseballs, he posted a 1.246 OPS in 2021, and on fly balls .964. It's no coincidence his September success came in the month he pulled more pitches and put more balls in the air than any other month in 2021.

Jansen's not simply practicing pulling the ball in the offseason, he said on Blair & Barker, but he understands there’s a “proper way to pull the baseball.” In September and into the winter Jansen has focused on keeping his front shoulder closed and it’s making him a better pull-ball hitter, he said. The September results back up his claim.

Jansen's showed stretches of struggle alongside months like September, where the offensive ceiling matches the defense. After 251 major league games, we still don't really know who he is. For now, Jansen's a seemingly perfect fit behind the plate for Toronto's newest pitcher with a good eye and pop in the bat. He's not Posey, but maybe there's a next level for Jansen that nudges him closer to the San Francisco legend.