Brady has tossed for over two touchdowns five times this season, however none of those have come in his last three games. I think that changes Sunday in Atlanta. Only three teams have allowed more touchdowns through the air than the Falcons, who gave up five to Brady when these teams played in Week 2.

Atlanta also doesn’t defend the run well, which should open up the play-action for Tampa to do even more damage.

Harris’ rushing numbers have fallen off in the last two weeks, but he continues to get looks as a receiver for a Steelers offense that has looked very underwhelming at times. Harris has seen no fewer than three targets as a receiver in any game this season and he’s caught at least four balls in more than half of his games.

Against the Baltimore Ravens, a team that defends the run incredibly well but not the pass, Harris should be heavily involved as a receiver. Baltimore and Pittsburgh always play each other close, so there’s a good chance those opportunities come wire-to-wire too.

Heinicke hasn’t eclipsed this number in the last two weeks and I think he’ll fall under this line a third straight time because of Washington’s commitment to the run. Antonio Gibson is averaging 24 carries a game over Washington’s three-game winning streak and he should have room to run against a below average Raiders run defense.

Besides, the Raiders can score points in a hurry. If Washington wants to win, its best path is controlling the clock and keeping that offense on the sideline, not trying to have Heinicke air it out with Derek Carr. 

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During the Chiefs current four-game win streak, Hill has been targeted at least 10 times in every single game. Patrick Mahomes is getting back to the bread and butter that has worked for this offense the past few seasons, and it’s paying off in helping this team turn its season around.

Travis Kelce should be a primary focus of the Broncos defense in this one, so I expect Hill to benefit from the added attention underneath. And a look at recent Broncos games shows the majority of scores they’ve allowed through the air have gone to wide receivers.

Mixon was incredible in November, rushing for 352 yards and six touchdowns on nearly five yards per carry in three games. He has at least one touchdown in each of his last five games, and two scores in the last four.

He carries that momentum into a big matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers and a defense that has allowed the most rushing yards per game in the NFL and the third-most rushing touchdowns. I expect a huge game from Mixon, one that includes a score of some sort.

D’Andre Swift has been ruled out for the Lions, meaning Jamaal Williams will be their primary back against the Vikings. In split duty with Swift against the Vikings in Week 5, Williams rushed for 57 yards. The two backs had 108 yards against this team combined. So, as long as Detroit keeps the game close, I think Williams goes over this number.

As far as keeping the game close, the Lions might be winless but they don’t typically get blown out. They have a -5 differential in their last three games and lost by just two points the first time they played Minnesota. With a similar game script, they won’t have to abandon the run.