Formula 1: Why the tiebreaker battle is completely meaningless

Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Formula 1 (Photo by CARL DE SOUZA/AFP via Getty Images)
Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Formula 1 (Photo by CARL DE SOUZA/AFP via Getty Images) /
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Max Verstappen hasn’t officially clinched the tiebreaker over Lewis Hamilton in the 2021 Formula 1 season, but the battle for that tiebreaker is completely meaningless.

With two races remaining in the 2021 Formula 1 world championship battle, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen leads Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton by just eight points.

The pair are currently on their second run of four consecutive 1-2 finishes throughout the first 20 races of the year. The run started with consecutive wins by Verstappen, and it has continued with consecutive wins by Hamilton.

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The final two races on the 2021 schedule are the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix at Jeddah Street Circuit (Sunday, December 5) and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina Circuit (Sunday, December 12).

Verstappen is set to enter these two races with nine wins in 2021, while Hamilton is set to enter with seven.

This means that Hamilton still has a chance to secure the tiebreaker over Verstappen.

He would clinch this tiebreaker if he wins both races (tied at nine in wins) with Verstappen finishing outside the top two in both races (tied at seven in second place finishes) — but not in third place more than once (Hamilton currently has a third place finish, a fourth place finish, and a fifth place finish, while Verstappen’s top finish outside of the top two is ninth).

But with all things considered, this might just be the most meaningless thing to note throughout the final two races of the 22-race season.

As noted, the only way this happens is if Hamilton wins both races.

But that alone would clinch Hamilton the title, regardless of the tiebreaker.

Even if Verstappen finishes both races in second place (which would, ironically, clinch him the tiebreaker!) with the point for running the fastest lap, Hamilton would gain six points (25 to 19) both times, thus turning an eight-point deficit into a four-point lead — and a four-point victory.

So in any scenario that actually results in the two drivers tying in points, Verstappen has already locked that up, since he would be guaranteed to own more wins than Hamilton.

All things considered, Hamilton needs to make up nine points, not just eight, on Verstappen to win the title.

And as a result, the battle for the tiebreaker is meaningless. The battles for wins and points matter for only one reason: the world championship.

Hamilton is listed by WynnBET as the favorite to win the title at -165, while Verstappen is listed as the underdog at +120.

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This means that a $165 bet on Hamilton would win $100 ($265 total payout) if he wins while a $100 bet on Verstappen would win $120 ($220 total payout) if he wins.

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