Yankees procrastinating with Aaron Judge could open door for Mets | Analysis

Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge can be a free agent after the 2022 season.
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Aaron Judge was the last Yankees player to enter the makeshift Fenway Park Zoom room and do an interview following their Wild Card Game loss in Boston on Oct. 5. Two hours after the final out, the All-Star right fielder was still miserable from digesting this latest failed postseason opportunity.

This made it five in a row since Judge’s rookie season in 2017, and each one stings more than the next for a slugger who is as hungry and desperate as anyone to end a Yankees’ championship drought that now is up to 12 years.

Judge addressed all of that pain, then did a little campaigning to have a lot more chances at redemption when NJ Advance Media asked him about heading into an offseason that would lead to his walk year before free agency. He was reminded that Mookie Betts was in the same situation two years earlier, and it resulted in the fellow superstar right fielder not getting the new contract that he wanted until the Red Sox traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Judge does not want a repeat of that.

“I want to be a Yankee for life,” Judge said two months ago. “I want to wear these pinstripes the rest of my career and represent this great organization and bring a championship back to the city.”

Five weeks and no reported contract negotiations later, Judge reiterated his stance while being interviewed by Fanatics:

“If it was up to me, I’d be a Yankee for the next 10 years, for sure.”

The Yankees know what they have. They love Judge. They know he’s the best player on a team loaded with high-priced stars, their undisputed clubhouse leader and the biggest fan favorite since Derek Jeter.

The Yankees love what Judge brings offensively, especially his tremendous right-handed power. They love his right field play, both his fielding and his arm. They love his passion, work habits, demeaner and personality.

The Yankees might even be thinking that Judge someday will be worthy of being their first captain since Jeter retired after the 2014 season, if he’s still with them beyond next season, of course.

Judge’s age, history of injuries and asking price will determine whether this love baseball story has a happy or tragic ending.

For the Yankees, the best-case scenario is Judge gets enough years and money in his next contract to satisfy him, then he stays healthy in coming seasons like he did in 2021 and leads his team to multiple championships.

Worst case? Judge tests the free agent market, Steve Cohen swoops in and offers Betts money, then Judge heads to Queens and wins a World Series or two wearing a No. 99 Mets jersey.

Can you imagine?

That Armageddon might not be that farfetched after the events of this offseason … no serious contract talks (if any at all) and now a lockout, which figures to last at least a few months.

The longer the work stoppage, the closer to free agency Judge gets and probably the better the chance he’s with another team in 2023.

A lot of players in Judge’s situation insist on having a contract done before Opening Day of their walk year. That was Francisco Lindor’s stance with the Mets in spring training 2021, and the shortstop got his $341 million just before the regular season. If Judge has the same desire, the pressure will be on the Yankees in spring training, even more so if they don’t spend big for a free agent shortstop and/or first baseman once the lockout ends.

The delay has to be over money. The Yankees surely have a ballpark idea of what Judge wants from preliminary talks with his representation, and the guess is it’s probably far beyond the years and/or dollars that they’re willing to go. Maybe the Yankees are thinking they’ll eventually get Judge signed close at their price because he wants to stay with them as much as they want to keep him, maybe more.

Here’s what Yanks general manager Brian Cashman said about Judge during the GM meetings in Carlsbad, Calif., on Nov. 9:

“Well, he’s a special player. It’s definitely a special case. I can’t predict or tell you how it plays out or what happens next. I just know we’re happy we have him right now, no doubt about it.”

Cashman was more forthcoming a week later before his Nov. 19 sleepout at a Manhattan youth homeless shelter:

“We’re essentially a season away from free agency, so we’ll have to have conversations with Aaron Judge’s representation. Obviously, he’s been a great Yankee. He’s impacted us in such a positive way for quite a long time, so it’d be nice to keep it going. But we’ll see where it takes us. Those conversations haven’t happened, but they will be happening at some point.”

Owner Hal Steinbrenner also chimed in on Nov. 17 when he was in Chicago for the owners meetings:

“Look, he’s a great Yankee. He’s one of the faces of the franchise. He’s a great leader, great in the clubhouse. (A long-term contract) is definitely something I’m willing to talk to Cash about, but nothing formal has happened yet.”

Contract talks could get ugly.

For sure, Judge won’t get the 12 years and $365 million that the Dodgers gave to Betts.

Judge will be 31 when his next contract starts in 2022 and Betts was 27 when his began in 2021. Also, Judge didn’t play in 37% of the Yankees’ games from 2018-21 due to an injuries. His fractured wrist and collapsed lung were fluky, but the oblique and calf strains weren’t. That’s a concern, as is the fact that he’s a 6-foot-7, 270 pounder who often ices his knees after games. The older he gets, the worse his knees presumably will get. And it won’t be easy sticking Judge in at DH often because Giancarlo Stanton still has six years remaining on his $325 million contract.

What may be realistic for Judge is a seven-year contract with a higher average annual value than Betts’ $30.4 million.

Judge surely will be looking to top teammate Gerrit Cole’s $36 million AAV, which was the highest in baseball history until Max Scherzer shattered it at $43.33 in the three-year, $130-million pact that he landed from the Mets last Monday. Maybe $38 million times seven year for $266 million is a number both sides can live with. That would take Judge through his age 37 season.

Both sides could go a lot of ways in a deal, but it’s one that should have been done by now to assure that Judge remains a Yankee for years to come … and end any possibility that he’s hanging out with Lindor, Scherzer and Mr. Met come 2023.

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Randy Miller may be reached at rmiller@njadvancemedia.com.

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