The Panthers should part ways with Christian McCaffrey after next season

The Carolina Panthers have an untenable situation on their hands, a blitzkrieg of misfortune coming at them from two directions.

On one side, owner David Tepper and the front office are paying their star running back Christian McCaffrey big money: a salary cap hit that doubles to $14 million next year. On the other, Tepper’s cash is burning into thin air every time McCaffrey doesn’t step on the field when his team plays. This year marks the second consecutive season in which the 25-year-old will conclude his season on the injured reserve.

McCaffrey is spectacular and highly productive when he plays. He’s beloved among Panthers fans and great off the field. But he’s another example of a marquee second-contract running back who’s overall production/return cannot live up to the amount of capital his team invested in him. It’s not McCaffrey’s fault, but rather a “perfect storm” of casual factors, fueled by the fact that running backs take the highest amount of abuse in the game.

What Carolina is going through is nothing new in today’s NFL. The New York Giants may find themselves in the same situation should they choose to resign Saquon Barkley. Like McCaffrey, injuries have kept Barkley in street clothes for a significant chunk of his NFL career thus far.

As SB Nation’s James Dator writes, “team after team are getting burned by committing to running backs. It would be one thing if there wasn’t talent going around, if these were the only good running backs in the league.” But as we know, this isn’t the case.

The story of Run CMC

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The Panthers drafted McCaffrey with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2017 draft, choosing the Stanford do-it-all back over quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson*, cornerbacks Marshawn Lattimore, Marlon Humphrey and Tre’Davious White, and edge rusher Haason Reddick.

*- To be fair to them, they did have a 28-year-old Cam Newton on their roster at the time.

Jonathan Stewart had over 7,000 rushing yards and nine seasons under his belt and then general manager Dave Gettleman needed to address the position. Gettleman swung for the fences and gave Cam Newton a weapon he’d use to lead the Panthers to a Wild Card birth that year. The soon-to-be-fired general manager also drafted Ohio State gadget player Curtis Samuel with his second-round choice.

McCaffrey chipped in over 1,000 combined rushing and receiving yards that rookie season. Over 2018 and 2019 he would earn over 4,000 yards, making him one of the most dominant overall backs in the game. His breakout MVP-caliber 2019 saw him gain over 2,300 yards from scrimmage along with 21 touchdowns

By April of 2020, franchise quarterback Cam Newton had been released, linebacker Luke Kuechly had retired and one might argue the team had extra incentive to keep McCaffrey in Carolina. The Panthers and general manager Marty Hurney signed McCaffrey to a then-record setting four-year, $64 million contract, including $38.1 million guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $16 million. It edged out Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliot at the time for the highest-paid running back in average annual earnings, a value still unsurpassed today.

But as ESPN’s Bill Barnwell pointed out, Hurney’s reasoning wasn’t necessarily wrong at the time.

There was nothing that would have told the Panthers that McCaffrey would become injury-prone. The Stanford star missed one game in school because of a pulled groin and sat out by choice for a bowl game, but he had otherwise been available for every single contest between getting to college and finishing his third pro season.

What transpired since then can only be described as truly poor luck. By the end of the 2021 regular season, McCaffrey will have missed more than two out of every three Panthers games over the past two years (23 missed games out of 33) due to injury.

The new NFL

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The de facto general manager’s playbook in the new NFL is clear: one does not expend a top-20 pick on a running back. For most teams, that rule extends to the first 30 picks.

In the last three drafts, the highest pick a team gave to a running back was No. 24 (Steelers and Najee Harris in 2021), No. 32 (Chiefs and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020) and No. 24 (Raiders and Josh Jacobs in 2019).

The sweet spot falls on using third round picks on running backs who can ideally give a team four to five serviceable years. Invest your money in a quarterback, big-play wide receivers and a good set of tackles.

Over the past three drafts, teams selected nine running backs in the third round, including Darrell Henderson (Rams), David Montgomery (Bears), Devin Singletary (Bills), Damien Harris (Patriots), Alexander Mattison (Vikings) and Trey Sermon (49ers). A further 12 backs in that time period were taken the fourth round, the highest number of any round. Those picks included Tony Pollard (Cowboys), Benny Snell (Steelers) Justice Hill (Ravens), Michael Carter (Jets) and Chuba Hubbard (Panthers).

Even the sixth round produced dividends in the 2021 draft, with names like Elijah Mitchell (49ers) and Khalil Herbert (Bears).

That means the Bears built their 1-2 punch of Montgomery and Herbert using just third and sixth-round picks over the past three drafts. They cost the Bears an average annual salary of $1.9 million. (Tarik Cohen, who has not played a full game since signing a three-year extension in 2020, earns $5.75 million per year).

The Buffalo Bills use the same playbook, investing their 2019 third round pick on the slasher Singletary and their 2020 third round pick on the more north-south Zach Moss. Singletary and Moss cost the Bills an average annual salary of $2 million.

Or consider this: the 49ers pay an average of $7.07 million to four running backs: Raheem Mostert (undrafted), Jeff Wilson (undrafted), Trey Sermon (third round) and Elijah Mitchell (sixth round).

The second contract conundrum

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This leads us to the second big no-no in the new NFL. Unless under rare circumstances (a Derrick Henry, for example), one does not give out a big second contract to running backs.

It’s not just McCaffrey who’s second contract is giving teams headaches:

Ezekiel Elliott signed a six-year extension with the Cowboys in 2019, and he’ll barely clear 1,000 rushing yards this season if his pace stands. The Broncos invested big money in Melvin Gordon, and he’s failed to rush for 1,000 yards in each of the last two years. Dalvin Cook in Minnesota, another extension, another injured back who won’t reach his 1,553 rushing yards from a year ago. Alvin Kamara, big-money extension from New Orleans — 530 yards injury-affected yards as a result.

In fact, half of the best players at the position this season are bargain bin, rookie-contract deals.

James Dator, SB Nation

The pattern is clear, writes Dator. Team after team are getting burned by committing to running backs.

Dator also points out the production discrepancy between rookie running backs and veterans. How many teams would honestly pass up Antonio Gibson’s or Elijah Mitchell’s contract for Dalvin Cook’s or Ezekiel Elliot’s? We simply aren’t seeing production jumps commensurate with salary at the running back position compared with others, writes Dator.

It’s not like comparing quarterbacks, where the salary paid to a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers compared to Sam Darnold is much more clear cut in return on investment.

The evolving nature of the NFL has also played a role in the diminishing perceived value of running backs. Years ago the league sought to make the games higher-scoring and made it easier for quarterbacks and wide receivers to elicit penalty flags. This had a trickle-down effect. Influenced by college football philosophies, Offensive coordinators in the NFL shifted their focus over the past decade from the 30-carry per game running back to shotgun set, five-wide packages.

Dator calls it “the perfect storm.”

More passing, a shifting league, rookie running backs proving they can be as effective as the best veterans, and more injuries. “It’s exceedingly difficult to justify any team opening up their wallet and parting ways with big money for a running back,” he writes.

Does this mean teams shouldn’t ever give out a second contract?

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No, not quite. Barnwell correctly points out that we’ve seen deals work out, like the four-year, $24.5 million pact Ekeler signed with the Chargers. Ekeler has already topped 1,000 combined yards through 11 games this season and has scored 14 times.

In general, Barnwell says general managers will need to be more patient and creative with running back deals than they are at other positions. And because of the injuries that running backs sustain, it’s going to be more important to structure deals with easier outs earlier in contracts, even if it means more up front.

“I think it’s important to structure these deals with the expectation that you’ll probably want to get out after two seasons,” wrote Barnwell.

We’ll hear arguments for why they’re exceptions to the rules about paying running backs, just as we did about the last group of young stars, predicts the ESPN writer.

However, the enthusiasm for the big second contract has unquestionably dwindled to a pipsqueak.

What to do with McCaffrey?

There is a good argument that the Carolina Panthers need to move on from McCaffrey’s massive contract after next year.

Why not just part ways after this season, following two injury-riddled seasons? Because McCaffrey’s dead cap would be excruciating for the Panthers to pay out next season, at $26.6 million.

Teams use creative accounting to keep cap space every year by restructuring contracts and converting bonus to salary, but they always have to count guaranteed money as cap space, hence why McCaffrey’s dead cap hit this offseason would be so large.

By keeping McCaffrey around for 2022 the Panthers pay his $14.3 million cap hit and ideally get good production out of him and can even trade him at the deadline. Or, after 2022, the team can part ways and pay the $12.8 million dead cap hit, spreading it over two years in a post-June 1 move if they so desire.

The Panthers would almost certainly anticipate such a move by drafting a running back in the third round this offseason or next, providing insurance for McCaffrey’s departure.

It’s likely not the nicest thought for loyal Panthers fans, but a seemingly unavoidable reality in the modern NFL.