We were oh so close to a perfect week across our Matchday 14 selections, but ultimately encountered one loser in our totals column.
Despite combining for 2.7 expected goals, Newcastle and Norwich stayed under 2.5 goals. However, a late goal for Brighton salvaged our parlay consisting of over 1.5 goals in West Ham-Brighton and Chelsea’s team total of over 1.5 goals.
That put us at 1-1 for the midweek, moving us to 16-13 in this column on the season. And now we’re back with a fresh pair of picks for the weekend actions.
As always, odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Brighton/Southampton Under 2.5 Goals (-145)
It’s certainly a high price to lay, but I don’t see how this game isn’t dictated by Brighton’s defensive unit.
I had a little to say about it in my best side bets for the weekend, but my belief is that there are few game-scripts that see either side score more than once.
My underlying assumption for this fixture is that there’s simultaneous regression coming for both sides. Across their last six fixtures, Brighton’s defense has experienced some bad luck, conceding six times on only 4.5 expected goals against.
Additionally, in their last four fixtures, they’ve only conceded two goals once. That came against an Aston Villa side that registered only 0.6 expected goals against the Seagulls.
Given the way Brighton’s defense held up on the road against Liverpool and West Ham - sides that rank 1st and 8th, respectively, in the home xG table - I suspect they’ll have no trouble handling a Southampton side that ranks 12th in home expected goals. Plus, the Saints have posted zero goal-creating actions in four of their opening seven home fixtures.
At the same time, though, this isn’t exactly a Brighton side that can be trusted offensively on the road. Through seven road fixtures, the Seagulls have accumulated only 5.6 expected goals, per fbref.com. That’s good for the fifth-worst xG output on the road in the league and second-worst amongst teams in the top-ten spots.
Moreover, Brighton are 16th in non-penalty expected goals, 13th in goal-creating actions and ninth in shot-creating actions, all per fbref.com. Brighton have also delivered below-average shot-creating action numbers in five of the last seven and below-average goal-creating action numbers in two of the last three.
For those reasons, expect a cagey defensive affair at St. Mary’s Stadium on Saturday.
Best Bet #2 - Watford Team Total Under 0.5 Goal (-129) vs. Manchester City
Call me square if you want, but I don’t see how Watford get on the scoresheet against a potent City defense.
Yes, the Hornets managed a tally against Chelsea in the midweek, but this City backline has displayed much stronger metrics than the Blues. Even though both sides have overperformed their road expected goals against metrics, City’s discrepancy is only -1.3 vs. -4.9 for Chelsea, per fbref.com.
Plus, City are best in the league in terms of non-penalty expected goals against, shots on target against and shot-creating actions against, all per fbref.com. Additionally, City’s historical performances suggest they’re more likely than not to keep Watford off the scoresheet.
Against sides 17th or worse in last season’s final EPL table, the Cityzens kept a clean sheet eight times. Extrapolate that same data out to the last three seasons and bettors will find Pep Guardiola’s side has kept a clean sheet in 20 of their last 30 meetings with sides 17th or worse in the EPL table.
It’s also worth mentioning that City enter this fixture in top defensive form. In their last four fixtures, they’ve allowed no more than 0.9 expected goals and above-average shot- and goal-creating against numbers in two of the last four, though the other two were below-average by one SCA and one GCA.
Plus, even though Watford got on the scoreboard against Chelsea, they turned in below-average goal-creating actions and penalty area touches against Chelsea.
Seeing as Watford were shut out in the last two meetings against City and were held under 1.0 expected goal in all of the last three, expect them to struggle Saturday and for City to keep the ball out of their net.
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