- Max Verstappen can win his first F1 World Championship as early as Sunday at Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
- Verstappen holds an eight-point lead in the championship and can bring home a championship if he leaves Saudi Arabia with a lead of 26 or more points.
- Should the championship end in a points tie, Verstappen currently has the lead in the first tiebreaker category, most wins.
Formula 1’s enthralling title fight is reaching its concluding chapter. We will have a World Champion within the next 10 days.
If Max Verstappen wins the championship, it would seal a first world title, end Mercedes’ streak, and leave him as the first of this young generation of talent to live up to their hype. Should Lewis Hamilton prevail, he would move clear of Michael Schumacher on eight world titles, having already pushed the record for most victories and pole positions into triple figures.
And the battle between champion and challenger could be concluded come Sunday in Saudi.
How Verstappen Can Win It All
The mathematics are relatively simple.
• Verstappen, currently eight points in the lead, must outscore Hamilton by 18 or more points on Sunday to claim the championship in Jeddah rather than face a deciding race at Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina Circuit on December 12.
• That means if Verstappen wins the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and Hamilton finishes seventh or lower, Verstappen wins the championship.
• If Verstappen finishes second and Hamilton finished below 10th, that would also be game over for Hamilton in his quest for an eight title. There are also some fastest lap considerations too (bonus point to the driver with the fastest lap, so long as that driver finishes in the points).
How Points Are Calculated
For those new to the sport or casual F1 fans, here's the points up for grabs this week at Jeddah:
- First place: 25 points
- Second place: 18
- Third place: 15
- Fourth place: 12
- Fifth place: 10
- Sixth place: 8
- Seventh place: 6
- Eighth place: 4
- Ninth place: 2
- Tenth place: 1
And, the fastest lap of the race is worth 1 point.
Or, There's Always Plan B
Even if Verstappen does not seal the deal in Jeddah, a win would represent a giant leap towards the crown. That would put him a minimum 14 points clear of Hamilton and mean that the Mercedes driver would have to rely on misfortune for Verstappen in Abu Dhabi, where surprise results are extremely rare.
But a win for Hamilton, with Verstappen second—depending on fastest lap point—would leave them heading to Abu Dhabi split by just one or two points, or perhaps even level (Verstappen currently owns the tiebreaker of number of wins this season with a 9-7 advantage over Hamilton). That would effectively set up a winner-take-all showdown at Abu Dhabi.
Both title contenders both exuded a relaxed aura on Thursday during press conferences at Jeddah.
“Like I’ve done the whole season, there’s no change,” said a typically low-key Verstappen on his approach. “It’s a new track, first of all we need to learn the track and see how that goes in FP1. For the rest, I just focus on the weekend and try to be as competitive as I can be. To be in this title fight to the end is very impressive from our side. Of course, I’ll try to enjoy the last two races, it doesn’t matter where we end up, we’ve had a really, really good season as a team.”
Hamilton said: “I am more relaxed than I ever been because I think I’ve just been around a long time. I remember how I was with my first championship, even my second and third. The sleepless nights and all those sorts of things. Obviously, I am a lot more sure of myself and applied myself better than ever before. I know I can’t change anything from the past but all I can do is prepare the best I can for what’s ahead of me. I 100 per cent know that I have.”
Verstappen has the points lead, but Hamilton is the driver with momentum, following his breathtaking charge to first from last in Brazil, and dominant win in Qatar. Hamilton will also have the fresher engine equipped to his Mercedes—which he used in Brazil— having used a slightly older spec at the less power sensitive Qatar. That is encouraging news for the reigning World Champion with the Jeddah Corniche Circuit a high-speed circuit.
Despite featuring 27 corners, 79% of Jeddah’s lap is set to be taken at full throttle in qualifying, with three DRS zones available, and an estimated average lap speed of 155 mph. Jeddah has been compared to Montreal or Baku, where chaos has often reigned, while others say it is similar to Silverstone or Suzuka—only with walls.
No one can yet be certain how the freshly-laid tarmac will respond to Pirelli’s notoriously capricious tires and how each car will react in turn. Simulators are one thing but reality is another. Mercedes or Red Bull could unlock the set-up sweet spot that the other misses. Other teams, such as Ferrari or McLaren, could emerge as interlopers.
Such has been the late nature of the build that the circuit resembled a construction site just weeks ago, and behind-the-scenes some non-essential areas remain that way, with the resource having been poured on the vital infrastructure. But the FIA’s final track inspection was completed on Thursday morning and it has the thumbs-up. The Safety Car and Medical Car carried out the first laps in Jeddah’s history on Thursday evening, as is the usual weekend protocol, ahead of Friday’s pair of practice sessions.
But Wait, There's More
• Williams will be without current team boss Jost Capito in Jeddah after a positive COVID-19 test in the U.K. There has been no other impact on trackside personnel at Williams.
• There will also be American interest at Jeddah, with recently signed Williams young driver Logan Sargeant from Florida making his debut in primary support category Formula 2.
