The January Transfer Window's Key Areas of Focus
The impact of arguably the most chaotic summer transfer window ever is still being felt, but it won't be long before the winter window opens, ushering in a new layer of havoc across the European game.
Clubs are a month out from being able to wheel and deal once again, and while the midseason period should not be as nearly as hectic and all-encompassing when it comes to the biggest names in the sport, there's still the potential for some season- and club-altering decisions to be taken beginning on Jan. 1., 2022.
Chief among them is the sweepstakes for Fiorentina forward Dušan Vlahović, the 21-year-old Serbian who has become the hot, young name on the transfer market (his Serie A–leading 12 goals are a good reason why). Questions also surround Man City's unique role as a potential seller, with Ferran Torres and Raheem Sterling linked with moves away, even with the latter's resurgent and recent run of form.
The Africa Cup of Nations is another wrinkle this winter, with players taking part in the competition potentially missing a month with their clubs, which could lead to reinforcements being brought in where applicable. Liverpool, in particular, could be hit hard with Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané due to take part.
Those are just a few of the top areas of focus this winter. Here's a closer look at three of the other major pressing issues as another transfer window nears:
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Mbappé and the out-of-contract all-stars
The biggest impact of this January window may wind up involving the out-of-contract stars who sign precontracts elsewhere to secure their summer moves six months ahead of time. And there's no bigger name in those crosshairs than Kylian Mbappé, who flirted with leaving for Real Madrid this summer even as PSG was loading up with a transfer spree for the ages. He has rebuffed all PSG efforts to sign him to a new contract thus far, and the most recent reports suggest that the two parties are no closer to bridging that gap. He's eligible to sign a precontract elsewhere as soon as the window opens, and Real Madrid, which made it seem like it was pushing to sign him this summer, is at the front of the queue.
Just to be clear, there's no guarantee Mbappé will sign a precontract anywhere this winter. He could simply choose to do what his current teammate Lionel Messi did last winter and run his contract down before assessing options in the summer (Messi's situation, of course, played out differently than he had intended due to Barcelona's financial mismanagement). Mbappé may not want to have a precontract hanging over the rest of his season as a distraction, and if his heart is truly set on Madrid, then waiting a few more months won't change that.
He's not alone in entering the final six months of his current deal, though. Paul Pogba is in a similar situation at Manchester United, though the managerial change could alter the calculus at Old Trafford. The oft-injured Ousmane Dembélé is also nearing free agency, despite Barcelona's best attempts to re-sign him. German center backs Antonio Rüdiger (Chelsea) and Niklas Süle (Bayern Munich) could be had for free in the summer, while Serie A star midfielders Franck Kessié (AC Milan) and Marcelo Brozović (Inter Milan), and forwards Lorenzo Insigne (Napoli) and Andrea Belotti (Torino) are among the top talents soon to be available for hire. The pandemic has resulted in retrenchment at most clubs, with directors seeking bargains, and while free transfers are hardly "free" when considering wages, bonuses and agent fees, not having to dole out a transfer fee on top of all of that makes for an attractive proposition.
Will anyone of consequence sign with Newcastle?
Newcastle faces quite a conundrum. It now has all the money in the world and the highest of aspirations, but it's also staring down the barrel of a relegation fight. Through 14 games in the Premier League, the club is winless (0-7-7), in last place and six points adrift of safety.
It could get a lot worse before it gets better, too. If Newcastle doesn't beat fellow struggler Burnley at home Saturday, then points may be hard to come by until 2022. Newcastle's December slate is truly brutal, with the Magpies playing at Leicester, at Liverpool, vs. Man City, vs. Man United and at Everton between Dec. 12 and the new year. New manager Eddie Howe has his work cut out for him, and then some.
So where does that leave the club that has fresh dreams of joining the likes of PSG and Man City in the top tier of big spenders following its Saudi takeover? Its ability to compete at the top anytime soon is tied directly to its ability to stay in the top flight this season, and achieving that safety could prove challenging, especially with its squad as currently constructed.
Which players of consequence, then, even at an inflated salary figure, are going to sign on with the knowledge that next year could be spent in the Championship? Perhaps there are contract clauses that could allow any new signings to be freed upon relegation, but a six-month stint on Tyneside playing for a last-place team with the hopes of staying up just so it can contemplate competing at a higher level starting in the summer doesn't sound all that appealing and requires some real long-term buy-in. Money talks, but it's going to have to shout convincingly in order for the club to significantly improve on paper in January.
Which U.S. players could head abroad?
Young U.S. internationals and New York Red Bulls products Caden Clark (RB Leipzig) and Kyle Duncan (Oostende) have already secured their January plans, as has Mexican American left back Jonathan Gómez (Real Sociedad, formerly of Louisville City FC). But all eyes are on a pair of MLS-based strikers to see whether they'll follow.
Ricardo Pepi's emergence both in MLS and with the U.S. national team in World Cup qualifying has reportedly drawn the attention of some of the top clubs in Europe. Daryl Dike, meanwhile, closed the season with eight goals in his final 10 games, reminding all of the form that had Orlando demanding $20 million while he was scoring goals regularly on loan at Barnsley in the spring.
Youngsters Justin Che (FC Dallas), Kevin Paredes (D.C. United) and Cole Bassett (Colorado Rapids), all of whom are candidates to take part in the U.S.'s upcoming December camp, also fit the bill as talents drawing overseas interest. Che spent the early part of 2021 on loan with Bayern Munich as part of FCD's partnership with the club, while Bassett was reportedly close to a move to Benfica this summer.
Winter tends to be an active time for North America–based players moving abroad, though, with MLS out of season and players looking to making the leap. Just last January, Brenden Aaronson and Mark McKenzie left Philadelphia for Salzburg and Genk, respectively, while Bryan Reynolds departed Dallas for Roma. The loan market was robust as well, with Che going to Bayern, Jordan Morris and Paul Arriola heading to Swansea and Dike securing his pathway to Barnsley. Not all moves pan out, as Reynolds, who would benefit greatly from a loan or outright sale given his inactivity under José Mourinho, can attest, but for players who want to test themselves in Europe's top leagues, there's only one way to find out.
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