FOCUSED ON CHINA: U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Seoul for annual consultations with South Korea’s military leaders about countering the North, but his gaze is still focused across the Yellow Sea on China, specifically Beijing’s ambitious weapons programs.
“We have concerns about the military capabilities that the PRC continues to pursue, and the pursuit of those capabilities increases tensions in the region,” Austin was quoted as saying by the Associated Press in reference to China’s July hypersonic weapons test. “It just underscores why we consider the PRC to be our pacing challenge,” he said using the abbreviation for the People’s Republic of China, the country’s official name.
Austin met with South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook, and U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley met with his counterpart Gen. Won In-Choul, under the framework of the 53rd Security Consultative Meeting, which resulted in a joint communique outlining adjustments prompted by North Korea’s recent missile tests.
“We also reaffirmed our shared assessment that the DPRK [North Korea] is continuing to advance its missile and weapons programs, which is increasingly destabilizing for regional security,” Austin said.
NEW WAR PLAN: U.S. Korea commander Army Gen. Paul LaCamera, who took over command of the combined U.S. and South Korea forces, presented new strategic planning guidance to update the alliances 10-year-old “OPLAN” for the defense of South Korea, to reflect North Korea’s growing arsenal of weapons which include cruise missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and a purported hypersonic weapon.
“On this basis, the leaders pledge to maintain Fight Tonight readiness, enhance combined defense capabilities, and update relevant operation plans (OPLANs),” the communique said. “They also assessed that there was significant progress in effectively responding to a variety of security challenges following changes to the strategic environment.”
TURNING WARTIME COMMAND OVER TO SOUTH KOREA: After the 1950-53 Korean War, the combined U.S. and South Korean military forces were under the command of an American general, but South Korea assumed peacetime operational control or “OPCON” in 1994.
Over the last several years, the two countries have been working on plans to give wartime operational control to South Korea in the event of war with the North. The joint communique notes that while progress has been made in moving toward that transition, South Korea is not yet ready to assume wartime command.
“Minister Suh emphasized that he will systemically and actively pursue the critical military capabilities necessary for wartime OPCON transition, while continuously expanding defense capabilities of the ROK military that are necessary for leading the future combined defense,” the communique said, noting, “Secretary Austin reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to bridging capabilities — until the ROK acquisition of these capabilities are completed.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate Armed Services Committee holds a 9:30 a.m. hearing on the nomination of Adm. Christopher Grady to be vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The post is currently vacant as former Vice Chairman Air Force Gen. John Hyten retired Nov. 19.
ALL SIGNS POINT TO INVASION: As NATO ministers wrapped up two days of meetings in Riga, Latvia, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia is giving every indication it is preparing to invade neighboring Ukraine.
“We don’t know whether President [Vladimir] Putin has made the decision to invade. We do know that he is putting in place the capacity to do so in short order should he so decide,” Blinken said at a post ministerial news conference. “We’re deeply concerned by evidence that Russia has made plans for significant aggressive moves against Ukraine. The plans include efforts to destabilize Ukraine from within, as well as large-scale military operations.”
“Now, we’ve seen this playbook before, in 2014 when Russia last invaded Ukraine,” Blinken said. “Then, as now, they significantly increased combat forces near the border. Then, as now, they intensified disinformation to paint Ukraine as the aggressor to justify pre-planned military action. We’ve seen that tactic again in just the past 24 hours.”
“Diplomacy is the only responsible way to resolve this potential crisis. The most promising avenue for diplomacy is for Russia and Ukraine to return to dialogue in the context of the Minsk agreements, which aims to end the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine,” Blinken said. “Should Russia follow the path of confrontation when it comes to Ukraine, we’ve made clear that we will respond resolutely, including with a range of high-impact economic measures that we have refrained from pursuing in the past.”
BLINKEN SAYS ‘EVIDENCE’ REVEALS PUTIN’S PLAN TO INVADE UKRAINE
MORE FROM THE REAGAN SURVEY: The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute released its fourth annual Reagan National Defense Survey yesterday, and the headline is that for the first time since the survey began, a minority of Americans — only 45% — say have a great deal of trust and confidence in the U.S. military. That’s a 25-point drop in confidence in just three years.
But here are some other findings:
- Americans are becoming more ambivalent about the U.S. role in the world, as fewer people express support for active global leadership. Less than half of Americans (42%) think it is better for the United States to be more engaged and take the lead when it comes to international events.
- A majority (52%) of those surveyed identified China as the greatest threat facing the United States, while only 14% named Russia. In 2018, 21% said China, while 30% said Russia.
- If China were to invade Taiwan, 71% of the survey sample would favor officially recognizing Taiwan as an independent country, 55% would support moving U.S. military assets, such as aircraft carriers, into the region, Only 40% would support committing U.S. ground troops to the defense of Taiwan.
- Overall, only 47% approved of President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan (67% of Democrats, 44% of Independents, and 30% of Republicans). A plurality (40%, including 64% of Republicans) believe the decision weakens the U.S., and regardless of how they feel about the decision, 62% disapprove of the way the withdrawal was handled.
MAJORITY BELIEVE CHINA IS US’S BIGGEST THREAT, WHILE CONFIDENCE IN MILITARY HAS PLUMMETED: POLL
INDUSTRY WATCH: The University of Maryland and the Pentagon’s Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security will cut the ribbon today on a new research laboratory called ARLIS, the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security.
Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security Ronald Moultrie, and University President Darryll Pines are scheduled to speak.
The laboratory represents a partnership between the university and the Pentagon and their joint efforts in amplifying intelligence, national security innovation, and shaping future workplace development in the intelligence and national security career fields.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Blinken says ‘evidence’ reveals Putin’s plan to invade Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Air Force secretary says US and China are in hypersonic ‘arms race’
Washington Examiner: Youngkin says he wants Virginia to be ‘most military-friendly state in America’
Washington Examiner: Capitol riot panel recommends contempt charge for ex-DOJ official Jeffrey Clark despite scheduled deposition
Washington Examiner: Jan. 6 committee subpoenas phone records of private citizens but not members of Congress
Washington Examiner: Majority believe China is US’s biggest threat, while confidence in military has plummeted: Poll
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Senators should vote for the Risch Nord Stream 2 amendment
Washington Examiner: Opinion: UK foreign affairs chairman: Communist China is its own worst enemy
Defense One: Thousands of Sailors, Marines Remain Unvaccinated After Deadline
Reuters: U.S. Defense Secretary Eyes International Response To Russia On Ukraine
Wall Street Journal: Russia Expels U.S. Diplomats
CNBC: Pentagon Calls For Stop To Anti-Satellite Weapons Testing After Russian Demo Debris Threatened ISS
Stars and Stripes: Five-Nation Pacific Naval Drills Send Message To ‘Aggressive’ Adversaries, Admiral Says
Defense One: Army Would Have 5 ‘Core Tasks’ in a Pacific Conflict
Reuters: U.S. Has Rock Solid Commitment To Help Taiwan Defend Itself — Official
New York Times: Putin Demands That NATO Pledge Not To Allow Ukraine To Join
AP: US military explosives vanish, emerge in civilian world
Navy Times: USS Carl Vinson’s Aircraft Sustained Two ‘Class A’ Mishaps Last Week
Air Force Magazine: Continuing Resolution Blocks Air Force New Starts, Production Boosts, MILCON
Air Force Magazine: Air Force Leaders Still Urging Congress to Not Block Modernization Effort
Air Force Magazine: Spangdahlem AB to Keep F-16s, at Least for Now
Reuters: Iran Makes Nuclear Advance Despite Talks To Salvage 2015 Deal
19fortyfive.com: How Would the US Military Fight a War in Space?
19fortyfive.com: How To Ensure Russia Can’t Beat NATO in a War: Forward Deploy the US Army
19fortyfive.com: Even the B-2 Stealth Bomber Can’t Escape the Supply Chain Crisis
Calendar
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 2
8:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “North Korea in a new era of U.S.-South Korea partnership,” with Sohn Yul, president of the East Asia Institute; Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy; Soo Kim, policy analyst at the RAND Corporation; Jihwan Hwang, professor of international relations at the University of Seoul; Jina Kim, professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies; and Andrew Yeo, visiting fellow at the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies https://www.brookings.edu/events/north-korea
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Will Russia invade Ukraine again?” with Hanna Shelest, director of security studies at the Foreign Policy Council’s “Ukrainian Prism”; former Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried, fellow at the Atlantic Council; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/will-russia-invade-ukraine-again
9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion with Christine Abizaid, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, on the shift of intelligence resources to focus on China and Russia, and the impact on the nation’s counterterrorism posture. https://www.insaonline.org/event/coffee-conversation
9 a.m. — Defense Strategies Institute Space Resiliency Summit with Lindsay Millard, principal director for space in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, delivering remarks on “Assuring America’s Space Capabilities and Maintaining the Nation’s Competitive Advantage in the Space Domain” https://space.dsigroup.org/
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Adm. Christopher W. Grady to be vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness Hearing: “Minding the Gap: How Operational Energy Can Help Us Address Logistics Challenges,” with Lt. Gen. Sam Barrett, Joint Staff director for logistics, J-4; Lt. Gen. Duane Gamble, Army deputy chief of staff, G-4; Vice Adm. Rick Williamson, deputy chief of naval operations for fleet readiness and logistics, N-4; Lt. Gen. Edward Banta, Deputy Marine Corps Commandant, installations and logistics; Lt. Gen. Warren Berry, Air Force deputy chief of staff for logistics, engineering and force protection, A-4 https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The European Union’s New Strategic Compass, with EU Military Staff Director General Vice Adm. Herve Blejean https://www.csis.org/events/eus-new-strategic-compass
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 3
12:30 a.m. — ReutersNEXT three-day global conference wraps up a full day of events with a 4:30 p.m. interview with Secretary of State Antony Blinken on “Leading the Way in Challenging Times” https://reutersevents.com/events/next/register.php
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “How to address extremism among veterans,” with William Braniff, director of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism; Shawn Turner, senior adviser at the Veterans Affairs Department; Cynthia Miller-Idriss, professor at American University; Kathleen Belew, assistant professor at the University of Chicago https://www.brookings.edu/events/how-to-address-extremism-among-veterans/
12 p.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “Addressing a Revanchist Russia,” with Steven Pifer, research fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
SATURDAY | DECEMBER 4
5 p.m. EST Simi Valley, California — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivers keynote address on China at day one of the two-day Reagan National Defense Forum 2021 https://www.reaganfoundation.org/media
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The idea that Ukraine represents a threat to Russia would be a bad joke if things weren’t so serious. NATO itself is a defensive alliance. We’re not a threat to Russia … And the idea that Ukraine represents a threat to Russia or, for that matter, that NATO represents a threat to Russia is profoundly wrong and misguided.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaking in Riga, Latvia, Wednesday.
