Local COVID-19 infections fall, but officials worry about holidays, omicron

Ventura County's COVID-19 infection rate is falling sharply but public health officials worry holiday gatherings and the omicron variant may make the gains short-lived.

State data released Wednesday showed an average of 6.1 infections a day per 100,000 people, compared with 8.9 cases a day a week earlier.

The slower pace brings a long-awaited shift in the county's status from a region with a "substantial" spread of the disease to one with "moderate" transmission, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The improved case rate also means the county's indoor mask mandate could be lifted as soon as Dec. 29 under a complicated formula based on multiple metrics. The date would be pushed back if case rates and hospitalizations climb again as some doctors expect.

The sharp drop comes as a welcome surprise in a county where the COVID infection rate had been hovering at a high plateau, said Rigoberto Vargas, the county's public health director.

"It's great news but we're cautiously optimistic as usual," Vargas said. "I'm concerned it may not be a sustained drop."

The case rate is calculated on a 7-day lag to offset delays in getting COVID test results. The numbers could rise again as soon as next week if infections from Thanksgiving gatherings begin to emerge.

More:Omicron COVID-19 variant is coming, Ventura County health officer warns

The expected spread of the newly discovered omicron variant could also accelerate transmission. Health officials confirmed Wednesday that the United States' first omicron infection was detected in a San Francisco resident who recently returned from South Africa.

Little is known about the omicron variant and it's too early to know how fast it will spread and if it will supplant the delta variant as California's most prevalent strain, said George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco.

"I don't think it's a given at all. I think we have to wait and see," Rutherford said.

He views the slowing transmission rate in Ventura County and elsewhere in California as the tail end of the COVID-19 surge that surfaced in the summer.

"At some point, it will go back up again," he said.

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COVID-19 hospitalizations across Ventura County rose slightly in the past week but remain relatively low with 36 people admitted in hospitals as of Wednesday.

"I haven’t personally admitted a COVID patient in over a week," said Dr. Rick Rutherford, an emergency room physician at Ventura County Medical Center and Santa Paula Hospital. He thinks the lull won't last because people are gathering more and adhering less to masking rules and social distancing.

"We as physicians at VCMC are bracing ourselves for another wave," he said.

Omicron and other variants are a wildcard but the rising level of vaccinations should mean any coming increase will be less the delta-driven surge that arose in the summer.

"The peak of the surge should be lower each time because of increased immunity," Rick Rutherford said.

Tom Kisken covers health care and other news for the Ventura County Star. Reach him at tom.kisken@vcstar.com or 805-437-0255.

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