In advance of Sunday night’s Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos game, Chiefs Wire examines the matchup with fantasy football projections for Kansas City players courtesy of our colleagues at The Huddle.
This week is the first meeting of the season for these AFC West rivals. The Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) are on a four-game winning streak and tragically logged three wins while never scoring over 20 points. The Denver Broncos (6-5) handled the Chargers last week and are in a three-way tie for No. 2 in the division (or the cellar, depending on how you look at it).
Played in Kansas City, this is expected to be one of the bigger winning margins of the weekend. This game either spreads the division out more in the standings, or the AFC West becomes a giant knot with no clarity until the end of the season.
The Chiefs swept the Broncos in 2020, winning 22-16 at home and 43-16 in Denver.
The Chiefs’ four-game winning streak erases a 3-4 start and keeps them atop the AFC West. The passing offense still hasn’t met expectations in four of the previous five games. Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned before the Week 12 bye, and the primary weapons are healthy and rested. The next three games are all versus AFC West opponents, so the Chiefs can wrap up the division with three more wins, and only the Chargers game will be on the road. The second meeting against the Broncos will be in Week 18 at Denver. The Chiefs get a further advantage this week by coming off their bye and playing at home.
Quarterback
The Chiefs won their past four games, but Patrick Mahomes was himself just once when he passed for 405 yards and five touchdowns at the Raiders. Otherwise, he’s thrown for only two scores over the other four games. He’s had two games without any scores and never topped 275 yards in those four low-production contests. Mahomes beat the Cowboys but only passed for 260 yards and no touchdowns in the Week 11 home game.
Patrick Mahomes projection vs. Broncos
Fantasy Points: 23
Passing: 260 yds, 2 TD
Rushing: 20 yds
Running backs
Edwards-Helaire returned from his five-game absence with a knee injury and looked none the worse with 63 yards and a touchdown on 12 rushes against the Cowboys. He added two catches for 13 yards. Darrel Williams had been a solid replacement and prompted speculation that his role would be larger when Edwards-Helaire returned. But he handled just five runs for 15 yards and one catch for 11 yards in Week 9, similar to what he had before Edwards-Helaire’s injury.
Edwards-Helaire rushed for over 100 yards in the two games before his injury and scored as a receiver in each.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire projection vs. Broncos
Fantasy Points: 16
Rushing: 70 yds, 1 TD
Receiving: 2 rec, 10 yds
Wide receivers
The lull in passing production over the past five games has mostly been a lack of wide receiver success. Tyreek Hill scored eight times this year and twice at the Raiders in Week 10. But he also had six games with 77 or fewer yards with no score. Hill has been on an odd trend of scoring every other week and he caught at least seven passes in any game with a touchdown. None of the rest of the wideouts offer any fantasy reliability or consistency. Hill scored more times than all other wideouts combined, and with 84 catches for 932 yards, he’s about to break 1,000 yards with seven games left on the schedule.
Tyreek Hill projection vs. Broncos
Fantasy Points: 19
Receiving: 6 rec, 70 yds, 1 TD
Byron Pringle projection vs. Broncos
Fantasy Points: 15
Receiving: 4 rec, 50 yds, 1 TD
Mecole Hardman projection vs. Broncos
Fantasy Points: 8
Receiving: 4 rec, 40 yds
Tight end
Travis Kelce is a bit light on scoring with six touchdowns on the year, but he’s been rock-solid with around 60 yards as a baseline each week. He’s totaled three 100-yard games and scored or broke 100 yards in each of the last three games while the rest of the receivers were far less productive.
Travis Kelce projection vs. Broncos
Fantasy Points: 11
Receiving: 5 rec, 60 yds
Match to defense
The Broncos have held their opponent to no more than 16 points in each of their wins. They’ve not allowed more than two passing touchdowns, but three teams passed for over 300 yards, including Justin Herbert last week in Denver. Mahomes blew up at the Raiders in Week 10, but he’s been plenty pedestrian otherwise, totaling just two scores in the other four previous games.
This matchup is a divisional game against a very familiar opponent and played in Kansas City, it could continue with the moderate passing stats or revert to a more high-scoring form as it did against the Raiders. The Broncos have only allowed one score to a tight end, but the only elite player that they faced was Mark Andrews (5-67) in Week 4.
Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill are fantasy stars that always should start. Now that Edwards-Helaire is back and healthy, he too is a strong weekly consideration. This matchup will be a good test for both franchises and a critical contest in the AFC West.
