At a Glance
- There hasn't been a widespread major winter storm in the eastern two-thirds of the country yet.
- It's the first time we haven't named a single winter storm through November.
- Recent events have been too moisture-starved or too far north to produce widespread heavy snow.
- Fall has been unusually warm in most of the West and Plains.
The calendar has now turned to December and the unusually long wait for the first widespread major winter storm east of the Rockies this season continues.
There hasn't been much heavy snow other than in the mountain West and in a few Great Lakes snowbelt locations.
The Interstate 95 Northeast urban corridor typically sees its first snow in late November or December. Interior Northeast snowfall has been modest, picking up in recent weeks, but nothing earth-shattering.
Chicago's lack of measurable snow through November isn't unusual, but Minneapolis-St. Paul has managed only an inch of snow this season, about 6 inches behind their average pace.
The dearth of snow is most pronounced in Denver.
They're having a record long wait for their first measurable snow to the tune of almost 140 years of records.
(MORE: Winter is the Fastest Warming Season in Much of the U.S.)
Still Waiting For the 'A' Storm
That's not to say there haven't been some impactful snow events.
In early November, a storm produced strong winds and blizzard conditions in parts of the eastern Dakotas. But snow amounts were fairly modest, mainly less than 6 inches in most areas except for northern Minnesota.
In mid-October, heavy snow blanketed the Rockies and adjacent High Plains of Montana, Wyoming and western South Dakota.
But neither of those systems reached the criteria for a named winter storm.
Since 2013, The Weather Channel has named winter storms when National Weather Service winter storm, ice storm or blizzard warnings are issued or expected for at least 2 million people or for an area of at least 400,000 square kilometers, an area slightly larger than Montana.
An average of 22 to 23 systems each season (fall through spring) meet one or both criteria to be named.
(MORE: Here Are the 2021-2022 Winter Storm Names)
In the eight winter seasons since 2013-14, an average of 2 to 3 named winter storms would have already happened by the end of November. These early season storms usually occur in the Rockies, High Plains, upper Midwest, or interior Northeast.
It's the first time we've had to wait until December for the first named winter storm.
Prior to this season, the latest wait for the season's first named storm was Nov. 17, 2016, when Winter Storm Argos made a cross-country journey from the West to the Midwest, then became a record snowstorm for Binghamton, New York.
Last fall couldn't have been more different. Four named storms formed from late October through the end of November.
The season's first storm, Abigail, was the heaviest snowstorm so early in fall in Minneapolis-St. Paul. That was just one of several October snow records set in 2020.
Why the Long Wait?
There have been persistent themes in the fall weather pattern that have prevented large-scale, major winter storms from happening.
In October, domes of high pressure were common over eastern Canada.
That kept temperatures warmer than average over the eastern two thirds of the country. October was among the warmest on record for many Midwest and eastern states.
The jet stream in November has taken more frequent southward plunges into the East, bringing chillier air.
However, that storm track has either produced moisture-starved cold fronts, or low-pressure systems too far inland.
That combo produced lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes and snow in the high country of northern New England, but not more widespread winter storms.
The jet stream has steered a parade of storms into the Northwest and western Canada, but a stubborn ridge of high pressure took much of the West and adjacent Plains out of play for major winter storms in November.
The Wait Won't Last Much Longer, Right?
December has had double the named winter storms as November, as the earlier bar graph showed.
That past history suggests the wait shouldn't last much longer.
For a widespread, major winter storm, sufficiently cold air needs to hold in place as low pressure forms.
Cold air has been in place over Alaska and parts of northwest Canada for a few weeks.
But the pattern in December is trending toward one in which that cold, Canadian air will tend to give only glancing blows to parts of the U.S. before draining east, rather than locking in place for awhile. Meteorologists refer to this as the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
This is reflected in our latest December outlook. Notice much of the country is forecast to be warmer than average.
(WINTER WEATHER 101: What You Need to Know to Be Prepared)
Given that, we may have to wait a bit longer for the nation's first major, widespread winter storm.
That's great news if you're flying, a bit rusty on your winter driving skills, or would rather not clear your driveway.
But if you're itching for that wintry scene to get you in the holiday spirit, you may have to enjoy the milder weather before the teeth of winter's cold really sets in.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.