In a different year, we might be over the moon. The Tigers just landed a star where they needed one most. Javier Baez is here to help them win. He's bringing his bat and his glove to Comerica Park, which is bringing big-time baseball back to Detroit. The Tigers have their shortstop. In a different year, we might be planning parades.
But this was the Correa Year. It was at least the Semien Year. It was never really the Baez Year in the buying year for Detroit. In The Great Shortstop Race, the Tigers may have finished fifth out of five. So be it. Baez is much more than a fifth-place prize.
Context colors everything. In one light, the Tigers failed to sign a superstar. In another, they just supercharged their roster. It's hard to overstate the size of this upgrade for Detroit. Put it this way: Baez had a higher fWAR last season than the Tigers' shorting shortstops the last four seasons combined. At the game's premier position, the Tigers just went from dreadful to ... pretty effing good! In the context of their future, that should work.
Baez doesn't need to be a superstar for the Tigers. Mind you, he's been one before. He led the NL in RBI in 2018. He led the majors in defensive runs saved in 2019. His bat and his glove will win games. But the Tigers are winning championships with arms and with superstars from within. The arms are here. The superstars are coming. For the next six years, Baez just needs to be the player he was last season.
Baez was a good player in 2021. He ranked 11th among big-league shortstops with a 3.6 fWAR. Carlos Correa finished third at 5.8, the best mark of his career. In the next month or two, Correa is likely to sign a contract similar to the one Corey Seager just signed with the Rangers: 10 years, $325 million. Baez got $140 million from the Tigers. If we're judging Correa and Baez by 2021 WAR, is $180 million more for Correa worth an extra two wins per year?
Correa is a hell of a player, a better player than Baez. He's two years younger to boot. He will be getting paid for his ceiling. The Tigers are paying Baez for something closer to his floor. There's risk here, to be sure. Baez strikes out too much. (The reward: he's third among shortstops in homers since 2018.) He's not getting any fleeter in the field. He'll be 34 by the end of his deal. There's probably even more risk attached to Correa, an injury-prone player who could be making $30-plus million at age 37. But everyone loves the Cabrera contract, right?
The Tigers didn't really choose Baez over Correa. They doubled down on Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. It's a gamble. Everything's a gamble. The Tigers are banking on promise over proof. The best version of Greene and Torkelson is the current version of Correa. A year ago, the Tigers might have anted up for Correa. That was before their top two prospects started slamming on the door of stardom in The Show.
Greene and Torkelson should be here this season, Greene by Opening Day. By next season, the Tigers should be contending. Pending the terms of the new CBA, that gives them five seasons to win with Baez before the bill comes due on Torkelson and Greene. When it does — and ideally it will! — Baez will be coming off the books. The pitching has to be superb. One of the prodigies has to fulfill his MVP potential. The roster has to keep growing under A.J. Hinch. This was always the plan, kicked into motion by the arrival of Baez.
Correa was the big prize, with the biggest price. He was the next face of baseball in Detroit. But the next phase of baseball in Detroit features Greene and Torkelson, two stars in the making. Now it includes Baez, a two-time All-Star himself, a Silver Slugger, a Gold Glover, a World Series champ. He only needs to be one of those things for the Tigers. In any year, that will be enough.