Ole Miss QB Matt Corral had a great season, but he shouldn't win the Heisman Trophy

OXFORD — Matt Corral isn't going to win the Heisman Trophy.

Corral was the offense this season for No. 8 Ole Miss (10-2, 6-2 SEC) in so many ways. He threw for 3,334 yards and ran for 597 yards. No other FBS quarterback threw for 3,000 yards and ran for 400 yards. In the last 10 seasons, only four SEC quarterbacks have thrown for 3,000 yards and rushed for 500: Corral, Chad Kelly, Dak Prescott and Johnny Manziel.

But the numbers just don't add up. Corral accounted for 31 touchdowns in 2021. No quarterback has won the Heisman with fewer than 40 touchdowns since 2006. The last five quarterbacks to win the Heisman averaged 55 touchdowns per season. 

Corral was the most effective dual-threat quarterback in the FBS. Still, there were eight quarterbacks who accounted for more yards per game than Corral's 327.6. Included in the bunch are fellow Heisman hopefuls Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh (357.3) and C.J. Stroud of Ohio State (348.4).

That number becomes even more skewed from a usage perspective. Ole Miss gained 7.5 yards per play on downs where Corral threw or rushed. That was only the fifth-best mark in the SEC.

By comparison, LSU's Joe Burrow averaged 9.4 yards per play in his Heisman season and Oklahoma standouts Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield averaged 10.4 and 9.9 yards, respectively, to win the award.

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But let's forget the stats. Let's talk about circumstance. In a year where there isn't a clear Heisman Trophy front-runner, why not give it to someone who played well despite having to overcome adversity? That's the argument people are making for Corral, at least.

It's true Corral overcame quite a bit. He played through an ankle injury for the second half of the season. He only played three games where his three best receivers were completely healthy. He lost his starting right guard and starting tight end to season-ending injuries. And he still led Ole Miss to a 10-win season and second-place finish in the SEC West in what has been college football's toughest division.

It's a good story. But it ignores a lot more context than it relies on. For one, it's often painted as if Corral is the only quarterback who dealt with adversity. Which isn't true. Pittsburgh went through stretches of the season with three receivers injured but Pickett still put up gigantic numbers. Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers played hurt for the second half of the season and got better as the year went on.

Secondly, it's a complete misrepresentation of the last 12 weeks to ignore how much worse Ole Miss' offense got when the injuries piled up. The Rebels went from averaging 43.6 points and 553 yards in their first six contests to averaging 28.2 points and 460 yards in the last six.

It'd be one thing if Corral put the team on his back. But that simply didn't happen. The defense carried Ole Miss through the brutal back half of an SEC West schedule. The defense went from allowing 30.2 points per game in the first half of the season to 19.8 in the second half. 

Corral led go-ahead drive after go-ahead drive to lead the Rebels to a 52-51 win against Arkansas. But crucial wins against Tennessee, Liberty and Mississippi State ended with the defense making stops. The biggest win of the year against Texas A&M came not because of a Heisman moment from Corral but due two fourth-quarter interceptions that led to scores.

None of this is a denigration of Corral. He's a great quarterback who had a great season. But let's be realistic. He finished No. 17 in the FBS in pass yards per game and No. 18 in yards per pass attempt and quarterback efficiency rating. He didn't lead the SEC in any major statistic. 

He persevered, but in doing so he became a roughly league-average quarterback. Over his last six games, Corral's quarterback efficiency rating was 146.51. That's roughly equivalent to how good LSU's Max Johnson (144.36) was this season. And he nearly lost his starting job to a true freshman.

There's just about zero justification for arguing Corral was the best quarterback in college football. Before you even get into the question of whether a quarterback should win the Heisman this year, it's pretty easy to eliminate Corral from the discussion.

Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or nsuss@gannett.com. Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.