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2021 Hero World Challenge: Top 5 & Top 10 Best Bets

Sam Burns

Sam Burns

Joe Rondone/The Commercial Appeal via Imagn Content Services, LLC

This week, 20 of golf’s best travel to the Bahamas for the 2021 Hero World Challenge at Albany. After a year off due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Tiger Woods and the Tiger Woods Foundation are excited to to invite the players back for another event. While Tiger will be playing host, he will not be among those competing as he recovers from his February car accident. The Hero World Challenge is a no-cut tournament with zero FedEx Cup points awarded but still a great cause that brings together some of golf’s biggest stars.

Golf fans around the globe should rejoice in the video from last week where Woods was not only standing unassisted but hitting golf balls on the driving range. While this is no indication of if or when he will return to action on the Tour, it’s a welcomed sight to see him in good spirits doing what he loves.

Despite Tiger not being in the field, there is still golf to be watched and golf to bet on. Oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy listed as co-favorites at +800 with Justin Thomas a close second at +900. We aren’t present with a ton of value in betting the top-5 and top-10 finish market.

I made two base models, one that took a finer look at stats such as scrambling, Stokes Gained: Putting, 3-putt avoidance, and overall birdies made and another model that was heavily weighted solely on SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, and Birdie or Better Gained all on Bermuda Grass. With each metric, I then broke it down by 50 rounds, 24 rounds, and 12 rounds. I weighted each average to determine where I projected them to finish. Here are a bets to consider:


2021 Hero World Challenge Top-10s to Consider:

Matthew Fitzpatrick to finish top-10 (-108)

When there are just 20 players and it’s a no-cut event, it’s often difficult to find value in the top-10 market. I would almost always advise not backing a guy whose price is worse than -120. Throughout this tournament and even in this column, you will hear me discuss my love for Sam Burns and how well he projects here. Due to his short price (-140) it wouldn’t be wise for me to suggest backing him to finish top-10. As such, I am forced to look at my notes and trust the data.

The first top-10 player I am backing is Fitzpatrick -108. Had this been a full field, I would probably deactivate my sports betting account should I advised in backing a player at -108. However, with only having to beat half the field, I like what Fitzpatrick brings to the table.

Fitzpatrick showed up in the top five in all but two. The two he did not finish top five; he was ninth and 11th. I had to dig deeper into his recent performance to see if we should back Fitzpatrick. This year he has played exceptionally well on the PGA and European Tour. We backed him at the DP World Tour Championship where he fell just short of first and finished T2. He’s had seven top-10 finishes in 2021 and his numbers back it up. Versus the field, Fitzpatrick is 2nd in SG: OTT at +0.8 per round. He is number four in SG: Putting at +0.4 per round. And over the course of his last 50 rounds on average has made the most putts inside 15-20 feet. I am backing him top-10 and using him in my DFS line up.

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Justin Rose to finish top-10 (+115)

As I stated previously, value is the key in 20-man events. Naturally I want to find a guy who is consistently in the top-10 in every projection possible, however, if it were that easy the sportsbooks would be out of business. The second top-10 I am looking at is Rose at +115. I quickly looked at Patrick Reed, but I couldn’t get to the window on him. I will preface this in saying that there is a very good chance Rose is a total no show and finishes well below 10th. Yet, I am still backing him top-10 for a few reasons.

Rose not only has property in the Bahamas, he is also used to playing coastal golf, especially in the Bahamas. He has played this tournament multiple times and has performed well. He had top-10 finishes in both 2019 and 2018. His best attribute against the field is his putter. He is ninth in SG: Putting at +0.3 strokes per round and eighth in putting percentage inside five feet. While he will certainly have to play better off the tee and better with his irons than he did last season, a small no-cut field gives him plenty of opportunity to get in rhythm. Let’s count on his flat stick to keep him in the top half of the leader board. Bet Rose to finish top-10 (+115).


2021 Hero World Challenge Top-5 to Consider:

Sam Burns to finish top-5 (+210)

As you read earlier, I love Burns this weekend. Not only will I be playing him in DFS, but I will likely back him as an outright winner. You know the saying, “This kid has got it?” Well, the creator of that saying likely was talking about Burns. In every single projection and weighted total I made this weekend, Burns finished either number one or two among the field. I try and make the projections and look at the prior to looking at the price that the bookmakers sets. I was shocked to see we are getting such great value by backing him top-10.

My four points heavily weighted model was the only model which had him listed second in the field, and that was behind Bryson DeChambeau. Burns’ stellar play has been noticed by the golfing world and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have one of the highest ownership percentages in DFS this weekend.

This season he is off to an incredible start. He won the Sanderson Farms Championship and followed it up with three top-20, one of which was a top-5. Looking at his numbers in his last 12 and 24 rounds compared to his last 50 and 100 rounds, there probably isn’t a hotter player in golf.

In his last 12 rounds versus the field, Burns is first in scrambling percentage, second in putt percentage inside 15-20 feet, fourth SG: OTT, third in SG: APP, fourth in SG: ARG, and sixth in BoB Gained. In the last 24 rounds he is fourth, second, fifth, seventh, 10th and fifth in the respective categories.

Should Burns continue to play this well, he could be in serious consideration to win the FedEx Cup. Outside of backing Viktor Hovland outright, his top-5 finish is my favorite bet of the tournament. Bet Burns to finish top-5 (+210).

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