Despite his public opposition to expansive, taxpayer-funded paid family and medical leave, proponents believe they can get West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin on board in a compromise deal for President Joe Biden’s costly “Build Back Better” agenda.
Key advocates for a scaled-back, four-week leave plan included in the House-passed bill suggested today that Manchin is open to supporting it, especially since it is one of a few elements of the bill that all partisan groups agree on. Publicly, he hasn’t indicated any change, however.
Fellow Democrats, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, believe that Manchin “is movable” on the issue, said Dawn Huckelbridge, director of the group Paid Leave for All, during a strategy meeting today.
“I think that there are a lot of things he’s been opposed to. There are a lot of things in this package he’s had concerns about. Paid leave is nothing he has ever made a red line about as an issue. And so I think there’s no excuse not to get this done,” she added.
Early in negotiations on a more expensive version of the plan, Manchin opposed a 12-week leave plan. It was then cut from the Biden bill. But under pressure, Pelosi added four weeks back into the bill the House passed with only Democratic votes.
Huckelbridge, reading the Manchin tea leaves, added, “it also matches with his sort of parameters and his vision for what he wants in this kind of package for getting people back to work, for making sure that benefits are scaled and targeted and paid leave is all of those things.”
During the strategy session hosted by PL+US, the issue was described as a key Democratic vote-getter that would help the wounded party win back women voters, especially those living in suburbs. In fact, two pollsters warned that if paid leave is not included in the legislation, or if the whole plan fails to win Senate passage, Democrats could take a hit in the 2022 midterm elections like their stunning loss in the Virginia gubernatorial contest earlier this month.
Influential Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, for example, called paid leave a “very powerful electoral issue” that speaks to women, parents, and the Democratic base.
She also said that it would provide a good contrast with Republicans who are lined up against a new federal program to pay for it.
Failure to win passage, she said, would be a blow to Democrats and evidence that they are having trouble delivering on promises to families.
If that happens, she said, “I would say that it’s a missed opportunity. Secondly, I think the message it sends is that we’re out of touch with your life, we’re out of touch with you and the economy.”
