Breakdown and SO/UP Bets for Grizzlies-Raptors, Pistons-Trail Blazers
Detroit is riding a six-game losing streak heading into Portland, while the Grizzlies will try to get above .500 by winning in Toronto.
SO/UP is back!
The Thanksgiving schedule last week tweaked our regularly scheduled programming, but I’m back on Tuesdays and Thursdays with a guest picker to help you navigate the NBA betting landscape. SI Betting editor Matt Ehalt is on as Tuesday’s guest picker to make sense of Grizzlies-Raptors and Pistons-Trail Blazers.
Season record : 30-24
Guest pickers : 17-31
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Grizzlies +3.5 (-110) | Raptors -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Grizzlies (+138) | Raptors (-163)
Total: Under 216.5 (-110) | Over 216.5 (-110)
Injuries: Grizzlies G Ja Morant—Out; Raptors F OG Anunoby—Out; Raptors C Khem Birch—Out; Raptors G Gary Trent Jr.—Day-to-day; Raptors G Goran Dragic—Out
The Grizzlies have not had much sustained success this season—their longest winning streak is three games—while avoiding lengthy losing streaks—three games is their longest skid. The result of that seemingly steady play is a .500 record.
Their performance has been more erratic than it seems. Memphis has wins and losses of 30-plus points in the last few weeks.
High variance is to be expected with the league’s No. 6 scoring offense (110.7 PPG) and worst scoring defense (115.6 PPG). One night, the Grizzlies lose to the Timberwolves by 43 points. The next night, they beat the Jazz on the road.View the original article to see embedded media.
Wins have been difficult to come by for the Raptors in November. Toronto is 3-9 over its last 12, including a 126-113 win over the Grizzlies last Wednesday in Memphis. That’s in spite of having five players averaging 15 or more points per game. Where Pascal Siakam has taken a step back in the scoring department, OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet are averaging career-highs. The Raptors also get plenty of points from rookie Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr. Still, they rank 21st in scoring offense (105.9 PPG) and don’t make up for that mark with the No. 17 scoring defense (106.7 PPG).
Toronto is worse at home (2-7) than on the road (7-5), having dropped four straight in front of their fans and the last three defeats coming by double digits.
Kyle Wood's Bets:
Spread pick: Grizzlies +3.5
Memphis is down its best player in Ja Morant, but Toronto is also missing key players. The Grizzlies are one of the better teams in basketball Against the Spread (ATS) with an 11-9 record, while the Raptors are 8-13. I’m all over them with the points and I’m not against taking them to win straight up.
Over/Under pick: Over 216.5
There are six teams in the NBA whose games go over more than half the time. Memphis and Toronto are on that list. It helps that neither defense can hold its opponent under 100 points, and both teams have players capable of putting up points in bunches even with some of the top scorers out.
Prop: Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 Rebounds
Toronto’s rookie averages 8.3 rebounds on the year, which is already a positive for this bet. Combine that with center Khem Birch and Anunoby being out, and Barnes should easily cash on this bet. Memphis is one of the better rebounding teams in the league, but Barnes is strong on the glass and he’s been playing more than enough minutes (35.3) to grab eight rebounds.
Guest picker Matt Ehalt’s Bets:
Spread pick: Grizzlies +3.5
The Raptors are 1-8 ATS at home. The Grizzlies are just 4-4 ATS on the road, but that Toronto number is hard to forget. Let's go with the Grizzlies here, especially since there's no back-to-back worry here. I’m not concerned about last week's game.
Over/Under pick: over 216.5
The over has been profitable for both teams (Memphis 12-8; Toronto 12-9). Both teams should be fresh, and that can lead to a solid scoring night. Let’s bet on the over.
Prop: Fred VanVleet Over 18.5 points
Fred VanVleet has been playing quite well over his last three games, averaging 25.3 points per contest. With this prop being less than his season average (20.1), I like the chances of VanVleet topping that number against a weak defensive team.
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Spread: Pistons +9.5 (-110) | Trail Blazers -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Pistons (+350) | Trail Blazers (-450)
Total: Under 215.5 (-110) | Over 215.5 (-110)
Injuries: Trail Blazers F Norman Powell—Out
The Pistons are in the midst of a six-game losing streak at the hands of some of the better teams in the league. Heading to Portland, where the Trail Blazers are 9-1, doesn’t improve their prospects. First overall pick Cade Cunningham is still struggling with his shot, though he’s coming into his own as a pro.
Offensively, the team is severely challenged. Detroit has the worst scoring offense in the NBA (99 PPG) and is only slightly better on defense, ranking 21st (108.2 PPG). Jerami Grant is the main source of offense, leading the team at 19.7 PPG. Cunningham chips in 13 per game, but he’s a highly inefficient, high-volume shooter.View the original article to see embedded media.
Portland dropped three consecutive road games to fall below .500. Now, the Trail Blazers return to the Moda Center where they are especially tough. Defense has been an issue during the losing streak, with Portland failing to hold any of its opponents under 118 points. The Trail Blazers allow 110 PPG, the seventh-worst mark.
Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum help hide the porous defense with a barrage of points and threes. The Trail Blazers own the No. 7 scoring offense (110.6 PPG).
Kyle Wood's Bets:
Spread pick: Pistons +9.5
Detroit is much better ATS (10-10) than their record indicates. Maybe that’s a result of getting a lot of points, like in Tuesday’s game, but 9.5 should be enough for the Pistons to cover. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, have the second-worst ATS record. Portland wins, but not by double-digits.
Over/Under pick: Under 215.5
Simply put: the Pistons can’t score. The Trail Blazers can score with ease. And neither team can defend. Because of their atrocious defenses, both teams are in the upper-half of the league in percentage of games that have hit the over. I think that changes tonight in a get right game for Portland at home.
Prop: Jerami Grant Over 19.5 Points
Remember how the Trail Blazers can’t play defense? It’s easy to see Grant going for 20 or more points in a loss. He’s gone over that mark in four of his last five games including two 30-plus-point outings and he does so again Tuesday night.
Guest picker Matt Ehalt’s Bets:
Spread pick: Pistons + 9.5
Detroit, despite being 4-16, is actually decent ATS, entering this game 10-10 and 5-5 as a road underdog. The Trail Blazers are 8-13 overall, but 7-3 as a home favorite. Let’s roll with the fresher team in Detroit against a Portland team coming off a loss in Utah.
Over/Under pick: Over 215.5
There's no real trends here since the over is 5-5 for both teams in their respective situations (Detroit on the road, Portland at home) and the over has hit in 19 of their cumulative 40 games. Let's take the over here since neither team is known for its defense.
Prop: Cade Cunningham Under 15.5 points
Cunningham has failed to top this prop in each of his last five games, and his season average (13) is also less than this total. Let's follow those trends and take the under.
DFS Value Plays:
(Prices based on 7:30 p.m. main slate)
PG/SG Jordan Poole, Warriors (FD: $6,000 | DK: $6,500)
SG/SF Dillon Brooks, Grizzlies (FD: $5,800 | DK: $7,000)
SG/SF Gary Trent Jr., Raptors (FD: $5,900 | DK: $5,400)
Note: Trent is a game-time decision
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies (FD: $6,500 | DK: $6,700)
C Jusuf Nurkic, Trail Blazers (FD: $6,700 | DK: $6,400)
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