The NFL season is rapidly approaching its end with just six weeks left on the schedule. It’s a bittersweet moment to realize, but at the same time, this is a great time to spin topics forward and look at how the current happenings might affect the near-future of the league.
Not every team is concerned about getting to the playoffs right now. Some teams are just trying to get to the end of the season after blowing it in the first 12 weeks. Others are trying to figure out how in the world they got to a dark point after a hot start.
Quarterback problems, organizational problems, a rising AFC power and a wild playoff race are big themes as the 2021 season begins to hit the back nine.
What exactly are the Browns and Baker Mayfield doing?
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
So, what exactly are the Browns doing here?
For a second, let’s set aside the larger looming question surrounding whether or not the Browns should pay Baker Mayfield the going rate for a legitimate franchise quarterback moving forward. It’s going to be very hard for Mayfield to reach a contract similar to Josh Allen’s six-year, $258 million deal if his performance continues as it is. Based on how he’s playing in recent weeks, the Browns can’t even entertain the thought of making Mayfield a $40 million per year player.
At the same time, Mayfield probably shouldn’t be on the field right now. Mayfield hasn’t looked right since aggravating a torn labrum injury in Week 6 against the Cardinals. He only sat out one week before coming back to the team in Week 8 and has been straight up putrid since then.
In the five games Mayfield has played since he returned to the field, he’s completed just 56.1% of his passes, is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt and is only throwing for 187.8 yards per game. Those aren’t the most advanced stats out there, but they paint a picture that is obvious to see for everyone right now: the Browns passing attack is awful and a lot of it comes back to the quarterback.
The main question that the Browns need to ask themselves right now is: if Mayfield is truly hurt enough to the point where he’s holding the team back, why is he on the field at all? They have one of the best backup situations in the league with Case Keenum warming the bench behind Mayfield. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have been dinged up this year with injuries, but this supporting cast is perfectly built for a backup quarterback to come in and drive the ship for a little while.
The Browns’ offense is suffering because of this, only scoring 13 points more than once since Mayfield return from his injury — a 41-16 win over the Bengals. Outside of that outburst, they’ve scored just 40 points combined in the other four games Mayfield has played during this five game stretch.
Mayfield himself certainly is not helping his cause to receive a mega deal that will make him one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the league. Fair or not, the Browns will absolutely use this stretch of play against him if they do decide to move forward with Mayfield as the starting quarterback for the long term. Sure he gets too look cool and gutsy while playing hurt, but he’s lighting money on fire at the same time.
Baker, if you’re reading this, you don’t have to reenact the scene from The Dark Knight where the Joker burns a mountain of money and says “it’s about sending a message.”
Sit down. Get healthy. If Mayfield isn’t willing to do that, then maybe the Browns should consider forcing his hand and making Keenum the starting quarterback until Mayfield isn’t an anchor on the entire offense. It’s not fair to the other players on the team, it’s destroying the Browns playoff chances each week and Mayfield is hemorrhaging money in future deals.
This serves no one. Make the right decision, not the emotional one.
Or maybe Mayfield really is healthy. If that’s the case: yikes.
The Colts have gotten their act together
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
The Colts have really turned their season around. Just a couple months ago, there were discussions over whether or not they should bench Carson Wentz to preserve a top pick for the 2022 NFL Draft.
Now, they have a shot to not only make the playoffs, but also win the division. This isn’t a team that’s piddling around in the mud with other bad teams and squeaking their way to a 6-6 record. The Colts are a legitimately good football team and seem to be firing on all cylinders at the right time.
The Colts are 5-2 in their last seven games after starting the season 1-4. They’re scoring like an elite team during this streak, averaging 33 points per game in those seven games. Even their recent losses have been reasonable. They lost 38-31 in a wild game against the Buccaneers this past Sunday and lost a close game to the Titans 34-31 where Wentz shot himself in the foot at the end of the game.
Wentz has improved to the point where he’s not actively hurting the Colts most of the time and is even tapping back into his old playmaking ability. Over the first five weeks of the season, Wentz ranked 22nd in expected points added per play (0.117) among all quarterback with at least 125 plays. In the Colts last seven games, he’s jumped to 11th in expected points added per play (0.158), according to Ben Baldwin of The Athletic.
While Wentz becoming competent with moments of good has obviously been a boost to the Colts, their running game has been the star of their season.
Jonathan Taylor and that offensive line are BULLIES. Taylor is playing like a truly elite running back, Quenton Nelson stays doing Quenton Nelson things on the interior and Ryan Kelly is performing like a dominant center as well.
Taylor is leading the league in rushing yards (1,205), rushing touchdowns (14) and yards per carry (5.8). By expected points added, the Colts, by far, have the best rushing attack in the league at a very nice 0.069 expected points added per running play.
When everything is working in conjunction for the Colts’ running game, they’re incredible to watch. Not only is the offensive line putting in work on the ground, but the tight ends aren’t afraid to get dirty either. It’s a real team effort with a superstar talent in the backfield.
The defense has been alright this season, ranking 19th in expected points added per play (0.037) and 24th in yards per play (5.8), but they do have high level talent that’s capable of making plays to get their offense back on the field.
DeForest Buckner, Darius Leonard, Kwity Paye and Kenny Moore II are just a few guys that have been key contributors for the Colts defense. It’s not the most consistent unit, but at least they have the talent to create splash plays that disrupt drives or cause turnovers.
That combination might be enough to get the Colts to the playoffs, even after the hole they dug themselves in the beginning of the season. If the offense can continue to ascend and perform like an elite unit, they have a great opportunity to pass the injury-riddled Titans and win the AFC South — and host the ever-important home game in the Wild Card round.
The Colts are here and ready to make some noise, now it’s just time to see if this performance can be sustained throughout the end of the regular season.
Well, the Panthers still stink
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Maybe some good can some from the Panthers embarrassing blowout loss to the Dolphins. This could be the shot of reality that this team needed to really rebuild moving forward.
The Panthers stink. That’s obvious to anyone and it honestly can’t be that surprising that they’re at this point after how Matt Rhule and David Tepper have handled their first two seasons together at the top of the organization. It’s no secret that Tepper wants a competitive team — and to be fair, who doesn’t?
However, it doesn’t seem like Tepper and Rhule have had a good grasp on exactly where the Panthers are in their organizational journey over the past two seasons. This was a team that needed a long-term rebuild. They had ousted Newton and slapped the Teddy Bridgewater band-aid on their offense to attempt to stay competitive while they tinkered with the team.
That was their first mistake, a mistake the Panthers haven’t quite recovered from. They got stuck in the dreaded no man’s land of roster construction where they weren’t bad enough to get a top three pick and also not good enough to compete for the playoffs. They still had a chance to rectify that with the 2021 quarterback class, which is already featuring moments of strong play from Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.
Nope. They opted to trade for Sam Darnold, who, well, played like Sam Darnold. An injury to Darnold and Darnold’s own play fueled the decision to sign Cam Newton. Newton is still a better player than Darnold, but now Rhule and Tepper should be seeing the full scope of where this team is.
And it’s bleak.
It’s easy to understand the desire to be competitive right away, especially since football careers tend to be short. However, the Panthers’ run over the past two years is just a clear sign that they haven’t been honest with themselves about how good this roster is.
The defense was able to turn around rather quickly under the tutelage of Phil Snow, adding players like Haason Reddick and Stephon Gilmore and spending premium draft capital on that side of the ball. The defense is certainly good enough to compete in the playoffs.
The offense is where they have essentially done total malpractice. They’ve been unfortunate to suffer through injuries to offensive linemen like Matt Paradis and Cam Erving, but this wasn’t an offensive line that was going to be productive even with them. This group required a major overhaul and all they did was tweak a couple spots — just to still be left with a bad offensive line.
It’s an offensive line that just got steamrolled by the Dolphins, giving up seven tackles for loss and five sacks (some of which were on P.J. Walker). No offense to Dennis Daley and Michael Jordan, but they shouldn’t be starters on any NFL team with serious playoff aspirations.
A papier-mâché offensive line and their quarterback mismanagement put pressure on the Panthers skill players to carry the offense. Christian McCaffery has been hurt and just got put on injured reserve and the wide receiver play has been up and down as the team just tries to find an identity on offense.
All of that brings a whole load of crap. A whole load of crap is how a team can go from starting the season 3-0 to going 2-7 over their next nine games.
After two years of the Rhule era, the Panthers look like they need to enter another rebuild — a true tear-down. That will be hard as they deal with the salary cap of a competitive team and the quarterback landscape in the coming years appears to be bleak in the college and the NFL.
Still, the Panthers don’t really need to waste another year trying to slap tape on areas that need full construction. It’s time to rebuild, as it really has been for two seasons now.
Buckle up, the playoff race is about to get chaotic
Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
The six-team playoff format was cleaner and made for an aesthetically pleasing playoff bracket that just made sense with 32 teams, 16 teams in each conference and 16 games for each team. It just felt right, or at least fans were accustomed to that playoff setup.
However, gotta give some credit to the suits at the league office. This seven-team format is introducing far more drama due to the inclusion of the extra team. Sure, the seventh seed in either conference likely won’t be a juggernaut or even a particularly good team (hello 2020 Chicago Bears), but it sure does make for an exciting end to the regular season.
With six weeks left in the season, both the AFC and NFC are set for complete chaos as teams battle for that extra playoff spot.
In the AFC alone there are six teams, maybe seven if the Dolphins can keep winning, that are legitimately in play for that last playoff spot. The Chargers (6-5) are currently holding onto the seventh seed for dear life, but the Raiders (6-5), Broncos (6-5), Colts (6-6), Steelers (5-5-1) and Browns (6-6) all have legitimate paths to land that seventh seed — or higher.
In fact, there are only two games separating the No. 1 seed Ravens (8-3) from the group of teams rolling around in the sewer trying to land that seventh spot. Based on how discombobulated the Ravens have looked this season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them lose their grip on the top spot in the AFC in the coming weeks.
Where the NFC playoff race differs from the AFC playoff race is the caliber of teams trying to get in that last spot. Most of the teams sitting just outside of the seventh seed in the playoff seed would make good matchups for whoever they played.
Here’s a quick example: the Falcons are currently one game out of the NFC playoff race. Sure, they’re 5-6, but they have a point differential of -103 on the season. They haven’t won a single game by more than seven points and those wins have come against the Giants, Jets, Jaguars, Dolphins and Saints — who sit one spot below the Falcons in the ninth seed. The Falcons get smashed whenever they play a quality team, but they are technically in the playoff race.
Behind the Falcons and Saints are the Eagles and Panthers. The Eagles might be feisty enough to claw their way into the playoffs, but the Panthers are imploding right now.
The real battle in the NFC is among the teams that are already in the playoff race. Right now, the Cardinals still sit atop the conference, but they’re going to need Kyler Murray to get fully healthy before they gun for a Super Bowl. The Rams, who have fallen to the fifth seed, have the peaks of a Super Bowl contender, but have struggled in recent weeks.
While the bottom of the NFC is total garbage, the top has some elite teams. The Packers, Buccaneers and Cowboys still have a chance to get a first round bye and they should be able to get past whatever competition they face in the first round if the Cardinals hold on to the No. 1 seed.
The AFC playoff race is more appealing right now in terms of regular season action because these teams are competitive with unpredictable performances. The top of the NFC might create a better playoff environment.
Games with stakes are fun in any sports and the NFL has created a tense situation for the final six weeks of the season with this seventh playoff spot.
