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Feinberg Forecast: Oscars Standings as November Ends and ‘West Side Story’ Arrives

The Hollywood Reporter
The Hollywood Reporter
 2021-11-30
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PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter ‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

F rontrunners
West Side Story
(Disney, Dec. 10, trailer )
King Richard
(Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer )
Belfast
(Focus, Nov. 12, trailer )
The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer )
Dune
(Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer )
Tick, Tick… Boom!
(Netflix, Nov. 19, trailer )
C’mon C’mon
(A24, Nov. 19, trailer )
House of Gucci (MGM/UA, Nov. 24, trailer )
A Hero (Amazon, Nov. 12, trailer )
Being the Ricardos
(Amazon, Dec. 10, trailer )

Possibilities
Don’t Look Up
(Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer )
Summer of Soul
(Searchlight, July 2, trailer )
The Lost Daughter
(Netflix, Dec. 31, trailer )
The Hand of God
(Netflix, Dec. 3, trailer )
Parallel Mothers
(Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer )
CODA
(Apple, Aug. 13, trailer )

Longer Shots
The Harder They Fall
(Netflix, Nov. 3, trailer )
Flee (Neon/Participant, Dec. 3, trailer )
Cyrano
(MGM/UA, Dec. 31, trailer )
Titane (Neon, Oct. 1, trailer )
The Tragedy of Macbeth
(A24/Apple, Dec. 25, trailer )
Red Rocket (A24, Dec. 3, trailer )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Licorice Pizza
(MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailer )
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer )

*BEST DIRECTOR*

F rontrunners
Steven Spielberg ( West Side Story ) — podcast
Kenneth Branagh ( Belfast )
Jane Campion ( The Power of the Dog )
Denis Villeneuve ( Dune )
Asghar Farhadi ( A Hero ) — podcast

Possibilities
Reinaldo Marcus Green ( King Richard )
Paolo Sorrentino ( The Hand of God )
Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Tick, Tick … Boom! ) — podcast
Mike Mills ( C’mon C’mon )
Adam McKay ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Maggie Gyllenhaal ( The Lost Daughter )

Longer Shots
Aaron Sorkin ( Being the Ricardos ) — podcast
Pedro Almodóvar ( Parallel Mothers ) — podcast
Ridley Scott ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Julia Ducournau ( Titane )
Jeymes Samuel ( The Harder They Fall )
Joe Wright ( Cyrano )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Paul Thomas Anderson ( Licorice Pizza )
Guillermo del Toro ( Nightmare Alley ) — podcast

*BEST ACTOR*

F rontrunners
Will Smith ( King Richard ) — podcast
Benedict Cumberbatch ( The Power of the Dog ) — podcast
Andrew Garfield ( Tick, Tick … Boom! ) — podcast
Joaquin Phoenix ( C’mon C’mon )
Jude Hill ( Belfast )

Possibilities
Ansel Elgort ( West Side Story )
Javier Bardem ( Being the Ricardos )
Leonardo DiCaprio ( Don’t Look Up )
Adam Driver ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Simon Rex ( Red Rocket ) — podcast
Denzel Washington ( The Tragedy of Macbeth ) — podcast
Peter Dinklage ( Cyrano )

Longer Shots
Nicolas Cage ( Pig ) — podcast
Oscar Isaac ( The Card Counter ) — podcast
Filippo Scotti ( The Hand of God )
Timothée Chalamet ( Dune ) — podcast
Jonathan Majors ( The Harder They Fall )
Mahershala Ali ( Swan Song ) — podcast
Matt Damon ( Stillwater )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Clifton Collins Jr. ( Jockey )
Bradley Cooper ( Nightmare Alley )
Frankie Faison ( The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain )
Cooper Hoffman ( Licorice Pizza )
Tim Blake Nelson ( Old Henry )
Dan Stevens ( I’m Your Man )

*BEST ACTRESS*

F rontrunners
Rachel Zegler ( West Side Story )
Kristen Stewart ( Spencer ) — podcast
Penélope Cruz ( Parallel Mothers )
Lady Gaga ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Olivia Colman ( The Lost Daughter ) — podcast

Possibilities
Nicole Kidman ( Being the Ricardos ) — podcast
Jessica Chastain ( The Eyes of Tammy Faye ) — podcast
Emilia Jones ( CODA )
Jennifer Hudson ( Respect )
Frances McDormand ( The Tragedy of Macbeth )
Jennifer Lawrence ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast

Longer Shots
Tessa Thompson ( Passing )
Jodie Comer ( The Last Duel )
Halle Berry ( Bruised )
Agathe Rousselle ( Titane )
Renate Reinsve ( The Worst Person in the World )
Haley Bennett ( Cyrano )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Alana Haim ( Licorice Pizza )
Rooney Mara ( Nightmare Alley )

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

F rontrunners
Jamie Dornan ( Belfast )
Kodi Smit-McPhee ( The Power of the Dog )
Mike Faist ( West Side Story )
Jared Leto ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Woody Norman ( C’mon C’mon )

Possibilities
Ciaran Hinds ( Belfast )
Jesse Plemons ( The Power of the Dog )
David Alvarez ( West Side Story )
Jon Bernthal ( King Richard )
J.K. Simmons ( Being the Ricardos )

Longer Shots
Jonah Hill ( Don’t Look Up )
Ben Affleck ( The Tender Bar ) — podcast
Mark Rylance ( Don’t Look Up )
Andrew Garfield ( The Eyes of Tammy Faye ) — podcast

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Bradley Cooper ( Licorice Pizza )
Richard Jenkins ( Nightmare Alley )
David Strathairn ( Nightmare Alley )

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

F rontrunners
Rita Moreno ( West Side Story )
Aunjanue Ellis ( King Richard ) — podcast
Caitriona Balfe ( Belfast )
Kirsten Dunst ( The Power of the Dog )
Ariana DeBose ( West Side Story )

Possibilities
Judi Dench ( Belfast ) — podcast
Gaby Hoffmann ( C’mon C’mon )
Saniyya Sidney ( King Richard )
Jessie Buckley ( The Lost Daughter )
Nina Arianda ( Being the Ricardos )
Meryl Streep ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast

Longer Shots
Ruth Negga ( Passing ) — podcast
Dakota Johnson ( The Lost Daughter ) — podcast
Suzanna Son ( Red Rocket )
Marlee Matlin ( CODA )
Kathryn Hunter ( The Tragedy of Macbeth )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Cate Blanchett ( Nightmare Alley ) — podcast
Toni Collette ( Nightmare Alley )

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

F rontrunners
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
West Side Story (Tony Kushner)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve)
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Steven Levenson)

Possibilities
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe)
Passing (Rebecca Hall)
House of Gucci (Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen)
CODA
(Sian Heder)

Longer Shots
Cyrano
(Erica Schmidt)
T he Many Saints of Newark (David Chase & Lawrence Konner) — podcast (Chase)
The Tender Bar (William Monahan)
In the Heights (Quiara Alegría Hudes)
Compartment No. 6
(Juho Kuosmanen)

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

F rontrunners
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
C’mon Cmon
(Mike Mills)
A Hero
(Asghar Farhadi) — podcast
The Hand of God (Paolo Sorrentino)

Possibilities
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay)
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar) — podcast
The Card Counter (Paul Schrader)
Red Rocket
(Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)

Longer Shots
Spencer (Steven Knight)
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)
Last Night in Soho
(Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)
The French Dispatch
(Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)
Stillwater
(Tom McCarthy) — podcast

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Projected Shortlist
Summer of Soul (Searchlight)
Flee
(Neon/Participant)
The Rescue
(Nat Geo)
The Velvet Underground (Apple) — podcast (Todd Haynes)
Procession (Netflix)
The First Wave
(Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman)
Ascension
(MTV)
Attica
(Showtime)
Found
(Netflix)
Becoming Cousteau
(Nat Geo)
Julia
(Sony Classics)
My Name Is Pauli Murray
(Amazon)
Francesco
(Discovery+)
Val
(Amazon)
The Sparks Brothers (Focus)

Possibilities
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (Focus)
Not Going Quietly
(Greenwich)
Introducing, Selma Blair
(Discovery+)
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry (Apple)
Tom Petty: Somewhere You Feel Free
(YouTube)
Rita Moreno: Just a Girl Who Decided to Go for It (Roadside)

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
45 Days: The Fight for a Nation
(self-distributed)
Ailey
(Neon)
All Light, Everywhere
(Super LTD)
A Cop Movie
(Netflix)
Bring Your Own Brigade (CBSN/Paramount)
Citizen Ashe (Magnolia)
Convergence: Courage in a Crisis (Netflix)
Cusp (Showtime)
Fauci (Nat Geo)
Faya Dayi (Janus Films)
Homeroom (Hulu)
In the Same Breath (HBO)
The Last Forest (Gullane)
LFG (HBO Max)
The Lost Leonardo (Sony Classics)
Mayor Pete (Amazon)
Misha and the Wolves (Netflix)
Pray Away (Netflix)
President (Greenwich)
The Real Charlie Chaplin (Showtime)
Rebel Hearts (Discovery+)
Sisters on Track (Netflix)
Stray (Magnolia)
Street Gang: How We Got to Sesame Street (HBO)
Torn (Nat Geo)
Who We Are (Sony Classics)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
A Hero (Iran) — podcast (Asghar Farhadi)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Flee (Denmark)
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
Titane (France)

Possibilities
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Drive My Car (Japan)
Zatopek (Czech Republic)

Still to See
Brighton 4th
(Georgia)
Casablanca Beats
(Morocco)
A Cop Movie (Mexico)
Digger (Greece)
Do Not Hesitate (Netherlands)
Drunken Birds (Canada)
Escape from Mogadishu (South Korea)
The Falls (Taiwan)
The Good Boss (Spain)
Great Freedom (Austria)
Hive (Kosovo)
I’m Your Man (Germany)
Lamb (Iceland)
Leave No Traces (Poland)
Let It Be Morning (Israel)
Memoria (Colombia)
Oasis (Serbia)
Olga (Switzerland)
Post Mortem (Hungary)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
Sumergible (Ecuador)
Unclenching the Fist (Russia)
White Building (Cambodia)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Projected Shortlist
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell ( No Time to Die )
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott ( King Richard )
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King ( Respect )
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael ( Annette )
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison ( Belfast )
“Guns Go Bang” — Jay-Z, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Jeymes Samuel ( The Harder They Fall )
“Just Look Up” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Taura Stinson ( Don’t Look Up )
“Fire in the Sky” — Anderson .Paak ( Shang-Chi and the L egend of the Ten Rings )
“Million to One” — Camila Cabello & Scott Harris ( Cinderella )
“My Father’s Daughter” — Glen Hansard, Cat Power & Eddie Vedder ( Flag Day )
“Every Letter” — Matt Berninger, Carin Besser, Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner [“The National”] ( Cyrano )
“We Love Each Other” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael ( Annette )
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries ( CODA )
“Home All Summer” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( In the Heights ) — podcast
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren ( Four Good Days ) — podcast

Possibilities
“Believe” — Aloe Blacc & Daniel Pemberton ( The Rescue )
“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg ( Dear Evan Hansen )

Still to See
“Your Song Saved My Life” — U2 ( Sing 2 )
“Never Gonna Tame You” — TK ( The Mustangs: America’s Wild Horses ) — podcast
“At the Automat” — Mel Brooks ( The Automat )
“Secret Sister” — Rufus Wainwright ( Rebel Hearts )
“Right Where I Belong” — Brian Wilson & Jim James ( Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road )
“Blome Swete Lilie Flour” — Daniel Hart ( The Green Knight )
“Inside Your Heart” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“Keep the Beat” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“My Own Drum” — Missy Elliott & Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Encanto ) — podcast
“Just for Me” — SZA & Saint JHN ( Space Jam: A New Legacy )
“On My Way” — Alexandra Lahey, Sophie Louise Payten & Gabriel Strum ( The Mitchells vs. the Machines )
“We Win” — Kirk Franklin, Dominique “Lil Baby” Jones, Cynthia Nunn & Justin Gregory Smith ( Space Jam: A New Legacy )
“Call Me Cruella” — Florence + The Machine ( Cruella )
“Lead the Way” — Jhene Aiko & James Newton Howard ( Raya and the Last Dragon )
“Hourglass” — Mary J. Blige ( Mary J. Blige’s My Life ) — podcast
“Chasing Dreams” — Goze & Tyler Strickland ( Changing the Game )
“Beginning Middle End” — Leah Nobel & Quinn Redmond ( To All the Boys: Always and Forever )
“Only One Way to Fly” — Jeremiah Fraites & Wesley Schultz [The Lumineers] ( The Starling )
“Tu Draumst [To Dream]” — Tara Nome Doyle & Isobel Waller-Bridge ( Munich: The Edge of War )
“Remain” — Saleka Night Shyamalan ( Old )

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