Leistikow: Is there a path for Iowa football against Michigan in Big Ten Championship game? Absolutely.

Of the 11 conference championship football games being staged this week on the FBS level, there is no bigger underdog than Iowa is against Michigan. 

The third-ranked Wolverines are favored by 10½ points against the Hawkeyes in Saturday’s 7 p.m. Big Ten Conference title game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. (Houston is also a 10½-point dog in the American Athletic title game against No. 4 Cincinnati.) 

That landscape shows that Iowa’s path is difficult to win its first Big Ten championship since 2004.

But as we know having seen the Hawkeyes’ success against top-five teams in recent years, this is a doable task.

“It seems like every time we go to a bowl game or a game like this, we're underdogs,” Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said Sunday. “So, we're a little bit used to that. And one thing I tell our team every August is that every season is going to bring its set of challenges." 

So, here comes the Hawkeyes' biggest challenge yet … against the best opponent they've seen all season.

"A lot of people kind of overlook us," Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell said Monday. "If you use it right, it can be a great thing."

Michigan does a lot of things well. Its Hassan Haskins-led running game is elite, having accrued the second-most rushing yards this season among Power Five teams (2,699). It owns a top-20 offense and top-20 defense. The Wolverines have game-wrecking forces on defense in Aidan Hutchinson (13 sacks) and David Ojabo (11 sacks) and outstanding specialists. 

But a path to a classic Hawkeye victory via complementary football can be found.

It’ll require Iowa playing its best game of the season in all three phases.

More:Iowa lists Spencer Petras as No. 1 quarterback ahead of Big Ten title game

Step 1: On offense, the Tyler Goodson-fueled run game is your friend.

There are several box scores in Michigan’s season that provide some hope for Iowa’s offense, which moved the ball effectively against Nebraska (just two punts and one turnover in 10 possessions). Ferentz on Sunday touted continued improvement (and health) on his offensive line, led by all-America center Tyler Linderbaum. Iowa’s up-the-middle effectiveness in the run game has been evident during its four-game win streak.

“With each week, I think we've improved here this last four-game block,” Ferentz said. “We’re hardly ‘Monsters of the Midway’ yet, but I think we're closer to being able to operate. It’s going to be a big challenge Saturday, because Michigan’s got a really good front. .. And it’s not just a one-man show, although that man (Hutchinson) is just an unbelievable football player.”

Running back Tyler Goodson is getting better as the season goes on. He has rushed for 488 yards in November, the best four-game stretch of his career. In Michigan’s lone loss, Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III consistently found run-game success and broke a few big runs. He finished with 197 rushing yards on 23 carries and scored five touchdowns.

While the Wolverines do rank 22nd in the country in rushing defense, their sack-adjusted rushing D is less imposing: 1,679 yards allowed on 383 attempts (4.38 per carry). Run-game effectiveness is essential for Iowa to stay out of obvious passing situations.

"We've got to be able to let (Michigan) know to respect the run," Goodson said. "Us being successful in the run game will help us open up the pass game."

More:Leistikow: 5 defining moments on Iowa football's path to the Big Ten title game

Step 2: On special teams, find a slight edge.

In the last two weeks, Iowa’s special teams have directly produced 38 points — four field goals and one touchdown in each game against Illinois and Nebraska.

Iowa’s advantage on paper isn’t as pronounced Saturday. Michigan kicker Jake Moody is 22-of-24 on field goals; Iowa’s Caleb Shudak, fresh off winning Big Ten special teams player of the week, is 22-of-25.

Michigan punter Brad Robbins averages 45.81 yards per kick; Iowa’s Tory Taylor averages 45.75.

Talk about even.

The Hawkeyes are going to have to do everything right on special teams. No blocks-in-the-back on Charlie Jones’ punt returns, for example. One misplayed fair catch or a rolling punt that takes a fluky bounce could be a game-changing difference.

On Taylor’s first punt from the plus-39 last Friday, the ball bounced into the end zone for a 19-yard net. That can’t happen Saturday. Every hidden yard of field position will be critical for Iowa to stay close into the fourth quarter.

Under special-teams coordinator LeVar Woods, Iowa's ability to find an opposing weakness has been impeccable.

"We talked about it (Monday) how good their special teams (are). We've got good special teams, too," Jones said. "In that area, it's going to be a good matchup. We'll just focus on what we do, looking at the tape a little bit more and finding a way to get that edge this week."

More:What Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, Michigan's Jim Harbaugh said about Big Ten title game matchup

Step 3: On defense, have confidence. And take your shots.

In the Jim Harbaugh era, Michigan is averaging just 11.5 points per game against Iowa — including a 14-13 loss in 2016 when the Wolverines were 9-0 and No. 3 in the country and a 10-3 home win in 2019. While a revamped coaching staff has been a big story in this Michigan season, this is still a similarly styled power offense … which is usually a good matchup for Iowa’s physical defense.

A look at the Michigan-Penn State box score shows a blueprint for Iowa success. Though the Wolverines escaped with a 21-17 win in Happy Valley on a late busted coverage, Penn State’s defense was good enough against the Michigan run game — 41 carries for 144 yards, a 3.5 average — to take the game into the final minutes. Iowa's defense is every bit as good as Penn State's.

Unlike Minnesota and Wisconsin, which run out of heavy formations, Michigan does a lot of its run-game damage via three-wide receiver sets. Iowa’s three-year reliance on a 4-2-5 defense to stop the run — with the ability to flex back to a 4-3 — makes the Hawkeyes well-equipped to try to stop arguably the best collective rushing outfit they’ve seen.

“Their offensive line, just big athletic dudes,” Campbell said. “And two or three outstanding running backs. They know how to find the seams and hit them hard. They’re explosive runners.”

That said, Iowa’s identity has been centered around a physical style and winning close games in the fourth quarter. The Hawkeyes won’t hesitate to wallop quarterback Cade McNamara any chance they get; Michigan backup J.J. McCarthy has been fumble-prone. Campbell’s second-quarter hit on Penn State’s Sean Clifford on Oct. 9 was one of the biggest plays of Iowa’s season. 

“No one’s ever going to give up, which is what I love about the team,” Campbell said. “You look at a couple of our recent games, they’ve all been hard-fought, down-to-the-wire games and that just speaks volumes to the guys in this locker room."

And that's the Iowa blueprint: Play clean on offense, be great on special teams and rely on the defense in a 60-minute fight.

Hawkeyes columnist Chad Leistikow has covered sports for 27 years with The Des Moines Register, USA TODAY and Iowa City Press-Citizen. Follow @ChadLeistikow on Twitter.