In recent weeks, the national conversation regarding Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers involved his vaccination status, his handling of COVID protocols and whatever the heck “COVID toe” is. That led to a moment with the quarterback flashing his little piggies for the world, in an image that requires enough coffee to numb your senses before viewing.
That discussion, however, seems to have overshadowed what was a little problem in Rodgers’ game. While the Packers passer has been putting up good numbers this year, and through the first ten weeks of the season he was among the upper tier of passers, there was something missing.
First, a snapshot of his performance through the first ten weeks of the season, viewed through the dual lenses of EPA per Play and Completion Percentage Above Expected:
There you can see Rodgers, up in the upper-right quadrant where you want to be on this chart.
However, something was missing.
The deep ball.
Known as a prodigious thrower of the football, Rodgers struggled over the first ten weeks pushing the football downfield. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, during that time on throws over 20 yards downfield, Rodgers completed 13 of 41 throws (a 31.7% completion percentage) for 466 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. His Adjusted Completion Percentage on those throws? 31.7%, which ranked him 25th out of 26 qualified passers in that category. Only Jared Goff was below him.
In the past two weeks? Rodgers has been much more effective on those throws. He has completed 6 of 12 such attempts (a 50% completion percentage) for 228 yards and three touchdowns, against zero interceptions. During this stretch his Adjusted Completion Percentage of 50% ranks second among qualified passers.
Tied with Kirk Cousins and just behind Baker Mayfield, so do with that what you will…
So let us dive into the past two weeks and look at how Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers got their deep passing groove back.
Isolating the number three receiver on a safety
One of the means through which the Packers have hit on deep throws over the past few weeks is by isolating a wide receiver on a safety via alignment. Take this long completion from Week 11, with Rodgers targeting wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who is aligned as the third of four receivers on the left side of the formation:
On this play, the Packers break the huddle with 11 offensive personnel, but they put all three receivers to the left side in a 4×1 formation. Running back A.J. Dillon is in the wing on the left, as the fourth receiver in the quads look, while tight end Josiah Deguara is in a Y-Iso alignment, as the single receiver on the right.
The Vikings roll with a 4-2-5 nickel defense, instead of sliding cornerback Bashaud Breeland over to help, Minnesota keeps him over Deguara. They bring pressure, blitzing linebacker Anthony Barr, but they play a single-high match coverage behind it. That isolates Valdez-Scantling on safety Xavier Woods, and the receiver spins the safety around on a corner route, and Rodgers drops in a perfect throw for a 39-yard gain.
That was again the matchup on a 75-yard touchdown late in the game. Facing a 1st and 10 on their own 25-yard line, the Packers put Rodgers in the shotgun and align Davante Adams alone on the left. Valdez-Scantling is the third receiver to the trips formation on the right.
He’ll run a deep post route, working against Woods. The Vikings show two-deep safeties, but they bring pressure and play man coverage behind it, with safety Harrison Smith looking to bracket Adams on the left side. That leaves Valdez-Scantling isolated against Woods. Rodgers opens to Adams to sell things a bit, preventing Smith from getting a jump to try and help Woods, before resetting his eyes and feet late in the play to hit Valdez-Scantling for the touchdown:
This Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams, the Packers tweaked this a bit to create an opportunity for Adams on a dig route, working against Jalen Ramsey. As you’ll see on this play from before halftime, Adams aligns as the middle receiver to the trips, while Valdez-Scantling is in that third spot. As the play begins, Valdez-Scantling looks to be working across the field, while Adams releases vertically.
The Rams seem to be ready, with a cornerback on Valdez-Scantling, a safety helping over the top and backside safety Nick Scott ready to poach any route coming his way. But Valdes-Scantling then breaks to the outside, and it is Adams who cuts inside on a dig, finding a lot of open space:
This creates an easy throw and catch for the Packers’ most dangerous connection.
Hitting the slot-fade
Speaking of Rodgers and Adams, in the past two weeks LaFleur has dialed up some ways for the two to connect on slot-fade routes. We all know about how well these two work in the vertical passing game, particularly on the back-shoulder throw. But the past two weeks have seen LaFleur call for the slot-fade to Adams, even using some tweaks to ensure the best potential matchup for his receiver.
Back in Week 11, LaFleur seemed to all for this at the best possible moment, as the Packers catch Minnesota in a Cover 0 blitz look. Rodgers buys enough time, and Adams runs a perfect route, and the Packers get six points:
Yet on Sunday, LeFleur found a way to create an advantageous matchup for Adams on this concept. On this 3rd and 3 play from late in the second quarter, the Packers are looking to keep a drive alive near midfield. As we saw at various moments during this game, Ramsey aligns across from Adams before the snap:
If the ball were to be snapped right now, you would have a clash of the titans between Adams and Ramsey. However, LaFleur sends Deguara in motion, and he’ll cross the formation and align outside of Adams. Watch the defensive response:
The defenders slide, with Ramsey bumping outside over the tight end, putting Adams on the slot defender. That is a matchup that LaFleur would love to create, and Rodgers would love to target:
Rodgers has been more effective in recent weeks throwing downfield, thanks to some of these concepts and tweaks from LaFleur. Should this continue, it might make this Packers offense much tougher to stop.
