Carson Wentz Stat Tracker: Week 12

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

NOTE: All references to rankings are of the 28 QBs that have played as of Sunday night.

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HOW WELL?

50 drop-backs is a bit more than the 21 that Carson Wentz had last week. The sack-fumble and the first interception completely wrecked his epa efficiency for the day, landing him at a slightly below league average +0.06 epa/d.

Outside of those 2 disastrous plays though, he passed the ball pretty well. Unfortunately, those plays count, and they also dropped his success rate below 50%.

Not only was his epa/d and psr about league average, so was his 1st down conversion rate and net yards per drop-back.

All of those numbers are basically average for the week, the trailing 5 weeks, and the season. So, I feel I am on firm ground when I say, he has been playing like an average QB.

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HOW FAR?

There was a good mix of passing depth with lots of attempts over 20 yards. Yards per attempt was below league average but matched his season total (7.0 ypa).

He stretched the field a lot. Overall, his passing depth was farther than usual (7th longest this week) and his 7.9 yard avg completion depth was 4th longest.

HIs season 7.0 yards per attempt comes in at 21st (of 32), with the air yard portion of that ranking 24th.

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TO WHO?

For the 2nd week in a row, the leader in receiving yards was Jack Doyle. I really hope I don’t have to say that every week.

Looking at the season graph, it’s clear that our receiving threats are Pittman and then “other”.

This week, only Doyle wins the elusive “better than average value on longer than average passes” award.

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HOW ACCURATE?

A 61.4% completion rate is about 6% below expected, so accuracy (drops) wasn’t that great.

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HOW FAST?

For the second week in a row, Wentz got rid of the ball quickly and he did so with long pass attempts. That is a promising turn of events.

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TO WHERE?

Despite a 62 yard TD pass that traveled 52 air yards, Wentz's deep passing was not very efficient.

On the year, it is a different story. By epa efficiency, he is the 6th best QB on passes >= 20 yards.

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DASHBOARD

Here is the comparison to the 27 other QBs that have played so far this week.

The Colts went pass-heavy (8th ed%), even though they were efficient on the ground (5th arsr).

Wentz threw quick passes (23rd ttt), but still managed long attempts (7th adot, 10th 20+) with unfortunately below-average accuracy (18th cpoe). The receivers did not add much yardage after the catch (26th yac, 22nd yacoe), so that all blends together for average yardage efficiency (7.0 ypa 12th).

Wentz had some sack trouble this week (10th sk%) and so that 7.0 ypa drops to 6.1 net yardage efficiency (17th ny/d).

He had 3 turnovers (5th to%) but also had 3 TDs (7th TD%). His 34% first down conversion rate (13th 1st%) showed that he was moving the ball well.

Overall, his game epa efficiency ranked 15th (+0.06 epa/d), which is similar to his season ranking (16th +0.12).

GLOSSARY

drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)

opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured

ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.

wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)

ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.

pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)

adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.

20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards

ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.

cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)

yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.

yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)

ypa: Yards per Attempt

aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.

ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs

scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs

sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs

to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs

ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)

1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs

td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs

rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone

orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone

20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards

psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0

epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.