How wide is the gap between Alabama and Georgia?

Alabama head coach Nick Saban, left, and Georgia head coach Kirby Smart attend a press conference ahead of the NCAA college football championship in Atlanta, Sunday, Jan. 7, 2018. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
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How wide is the gap between Alabama and Georgia?

That question will be answered when they meet Saturday in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the SEC championship game, but until then, statistics can build a picture of how the conference’s two best teams compare.

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Let’s dive into some key points of context:

How Alabama’s offense ranks compare to Georgia’s: The Tide’s will statistically be the best offense Georgia has faced this season, while the Bulldogs’ will be among the best Alabama has seen. The breakdown:

  • Alabama’s offense ranks seventh among FBS teams in yards gained per game (492.2) and fifth in points per game (42.7). The previous best offense Georgia has seen in terms of yards has been Florida (12th, 470.1 per game) and in terms of points has been Tennessee (9th, 39.0 points per game).
  • Alabama’s offense has played against four defenses currently in the top 50 in yards allowed: Texas A&M (20th), Mississippi State (23rd), Southern Miss (45th) and Florida (47th).
  • Georgia’s offense ranks 27th among FBS teams in yards gained per game (442.0) and sixth in points per game (40.7). No offense Alabama has faced is averaging more points than Georgia, while Ole Miss remains the best offense the Tide has seen in yards gained (5th, 506.7).
  • Georgia’s offense has played against five defenses currently in the top 50 in yards allowed: Clemson (9th), UAB (17th), Kentucky (25th), South Carolina (44th) and Florida (47th).

How Georgia’s defense compares to Alabama’s: Georgia’s will statistically be the best defense Alabama has faced this season, while Alabama’s will compare to Clemson’s as the best defense Georgia has seen. The breakdown:

  • Georgia’s defense ranks first among FBS teams in yards allowed per game (230.6) and points allowed per game (6.9). The previous best defense Alabama has faced in terms of yards and points is Texas A&M (20th in yards allowed, 4th in points allowed).
  • Georgia’s defense has played against four offenses currently in the top 50 in yards gained: Florida (12th), Tennessee (18th), Arkansas (30th) and Kentucky (45th).
  • Alabama’s defense ranks seventh among FBS teams in yards allowed per game (294.2) and 20th in points allowed per game (19.9). The only comparable defense Georgia has played is Clemson, which ranks ninth in yards allowed (308.4) and second in points allowed (15.0).
  • Alabama’s defense has played against six offenses currently in the top 50 in yards gained: Ole Miss (5th), Florida (12th), Tennessee (18th), Mississippi State (22nd), Miami (23rd) and Arkansas (30th).

Strength of schedules: Alabama’s strength of schedule played ranks 18th in Sagarin ratings compared to 51st for Georgia. ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks Alabama’s strength of schedule 33rd and Georgia’s 56th.

Both Alabama and Georgia have played three games against teams currently ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Alabama beat No. 8/8 Ole Miss and No. 23/25 Arkansas, while losing to No. 24/23 Texas A&M. Georgia defeated No. 22/24 Clemson, No. 23/25 Arkansas and No. 25/22 Kentucky.

Common opponents: Alabama and Georgia played have played four common opponents this season, all wins for each team: Auburn, Florida, Arkansas and Tennessee. Georgia’s average margin of victory in those four games was 28 points, while Alabama’s was 9.75. The breakdown:

  • Georgia hosted Arkansas in early October and handed the Razorbacks, then 4-0, their first loss, 37-0. Alabama also hosted Arkansas, in November, and won by seven points, 42-35.
  • The Bulldogs won by 24 points in Jordan-Hare Stadium when Auburn quarterback Bo Nix was still healthy and the Tigers were 4-1. Alabama won there by two points Saturday, 24-22, in four overtimes against backup T.J. Finley.
  • Alabama went to Gainesville when Florida was 2-0 and escaped with a two-point win, 31-29. Georgia played the Gators on a neutral field in late October and won, 34-7, amid Florida’s free-fall that cost Dan Mullen his job.
  • Alabama beat Tennessee by 28 points at home, 52-24, while Georgia won by 24 in Knoxville, 41-17. Both Alabama and Georgia trailed the Vols in the first quarter of those games.

Non-common opponents: Other than the four common opponents, both Alabama and Georgia have played seven FBS teams. The breakdown:

  • Alabama went 6-1, losing at Texas A&M by three points while beating Miami by 31 points, Southern Miss by 49, Ole Miss by 21, Mississippi State by 40, LSU by 6 and New Mexico State by 56. Alabama’s average margin of victory in those six wins was 34 points.
  • Georgia went 7-0, beating Clemson by 7 points, UAB by 49, South Carolina by 27, Vanderbilt by 62, Kentucky by 17, Missouri by 37 and Georgia Tech by 45. Georgia’s average margin of victory in those seven wins was 35 points.

Analytics rankings: Georgia is No. 1 across the board in Sagarin ratings, ESPN FPI and ESPN SP+. Alabama is No. 2 behind Georgia in Sagarin ratings and No. 3 behind Ohio State in both ESPN metrics.

View from Las Vegas: Georgia is favored by 6.5 points across major sports books, marking the first time in 93 games Alabama has been an underdog. The line for the game opened around 4.5 points before Alabama’s shaky Iron Bowl performance moved it as high as seven points.

Alabama is still has the second-shortest odds to win a national championship at +600, behind the favored Bulldogs at -225, according to BetMGM.

Mike Rodak is an Alabama beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @mikerodak.

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