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What we learned, NFL Week 12: The Rams are unraveling, the Patriots are not, and Cam Newton ...eesh.

The Los Angeles Rams officially have to worry.

Los Angeles is roughly as all-in as an NFL team can be. It has a quarterback making more than $20 million and six other veteran playmakers set for cap hits of at least $14 million for 2022. It has no first round draft picks through 2024 and won’t make a selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, barring a trade, in the top 96 picks.

This combination of limited cap room, stockpile of big contracts, and dearth of draft picks puts a pretty defined window on the Rams’ title hopes. If they can’t win with this group, there are very few ways to make meaningful personnel improvements.

And this is a group that will leave November without a single win.

Los Angeles won on Halloween, then dropped three straight games — the latest coming in Green Bay after a Week 11 bye. A once 7-1 club is now 7-4 and staring up at the 9-2 Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West race.

While there have been issues across the lineup, the Rams’ biggest problem boils down to one thing in 2021: Matthew Stafford plays big in small games and small in big games. Here’s what he’s done against teams that have .500 records or worse:

And here are his numbers against teams with winning records through Week 12:

Stafford throws more, and throws worse, when faced with good teams. His passer rating drops by 30 full points in these games. He gets sacked more often and loses more yards on those sacks. He throws interceptions roughly twice as much.

There’s a significant variance in his deep game as well. Against teams that are .500 or worse, Stafford has completed 61.8 of his passes that travel 10+ yards downfield (42 of 68) and 46.2 percent of the passes that go 20+ yards (12 of 26). Against winning teams, those numbers drop to 42.9 percent (30 of 70) and 30.4 (seven of 23). Depending on the opponent, he can go from prime Aaron Rodgers to a guy completing fewer deep balls than 2021 Daniel Jones.

This is a problem! The defense has been mostly as advertised, but lost by a dozen to the Titans on a night where Tennessee gained fewer than 200 total yards of offense. It held the 49ers to 335 yards and lost by 21. On Sunday the Rams outgained the Pack 5.8 yards per play to 5.1 and it made no difference because Stafford was underwhelming and LA turned the ball over three times, leading to 17 Green Bay points.

The Rams have the personnel to win the Super Bowl and a quarterback who can’t shake the lingering residue of the Lions from his soul. Stafford’s big west coast debut has fizzled, leaving him a box score hero against weak competition and an ineffective trebuchet launching pumpkins into space against good teams.

If he can’t get his head right and find some semblance of consistency in the home stretch, he and the Rams could continue their 2019-20 trajectory as a winning team who doesn’t truly scare anyone.

The Steelers' slide is coming from an unexpected (and expected) source.

The Pittsburgh Steelers started 2021 in a very tenuous position. With a weak offensive line and a quarterback unable to consistently throw 10+ yards downfield, Pittsburgh’s hopes for a playoff return hinged on massive weekly performances from a very good, but not great, defense.

This strategy worked through roughly half the season before the already-visible cracks began to weep in a 17-17 tie against the winless Lions and then a 41-37 loss to the Chargers in Week 11. In Week 12, the dam burst, flooding the Steelers’ title hopes even in a wide open AFC.

Pittsburgh suffered its most embarrassing loss of 2021 and one of the worst of the Mike Tomlin era by getting absolutely boat-raced by the Cincinnati Bengals in a 41-10 beating that was over before halftime. The Steelers’ first nine drives resulted in -4 points thanks to a pick-six and an utterly inoffensive offense.

Roethlisberger’s waning arm strength was on full display. He was responsible for -13.2 expected points added … in the first half alone. He pushed the Bengal lead to 31-3 (oh my god) at halftime by soft-tossing an out route to former teammate Mike Hilton that ended in an easy pick-six for Cincinnati.

The Bengals forced the action onto Roethlisberger’s cooked pasta shoulder behind a top 10 rushing defense and their dynamic offense. Najee Harris had just 23 rushing yards on eight carries while Cincinnati added points on four of its first five drives. Joe Burrow’s offense demanded the Steelers respond with big plays.

Roethlisberger was actually better with his deep ball than usual — he completed 40 percent of his passes Sunday compared to 30 percent over the first 11 weeks of the season.

It wasn’t nearly enough to overcome the ineffectiveness and inefficiency that have marred his 18th season as a pro. He trailed big all game and, despite moderate success, only attempted five deep balls all day. That’s kinda his thing; last year he led a 17-point comeback over the Colts while throwing only four deep balls.

None of this was especially unexpected coming into the season. His defense disappearing is.

The Steelers came into Week 12 with the league’s 25th-ranked unit, according to FootballOutsiders’ DVOA metric. The numbers suggested they were similarly deficient against the run and the pass, but the return of injured All-Pros TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick were reason to believe things could be different. Instead, Pittsburgh somehow got worse.

Burrow only threw four incompletions on a day where he barely had to break a sweat and would later be replaced by Brandon Allen. A rushing attack that averaged 3.9 yards per carry — 25th-best in the NFL — sprang for 5.4 yards per touch on non-kneeldowns. Cincinnati converted less than 50 percent of its third downs and it wasn’t a problem because it had *multiple* scoring drives of 65+ yards in which it didn’t even get to a third down situation.

This was an emphatic win for the Bengals, who vaulted back into the AFC North title race by stomping out a rival. It’s just as much a statement from the Steelers that things, despite some early season fire, have not gotten better. Pittsburgh welcomed several key players back to the lineup for what could have been a momentum-shifting road win. Instead, Roethlisberger’s team waded into a prizefight with its hands down and chin up and got treated like a tomato can.

Cordarrelle Patterson's reinvention might be the only good thing about the Falcons

For the bulk of his career, Cordarrelle Patterson was not a running back.

He’d run the ball occasionally on jet sweeps and end-arounds and gadget plays, but he was a mostly a man without a position. He was an All-Pro kick returner but, like Devin Hester and Dante Hall and Josh Cribbs before him, mostly left to languish when his team had the ball.

This began to change in 2018 when injuries in the Patriots’ backfield forced him into tailback duties. That trend continued when David Montgomery missed time in 2020, to mixed results.

Now, at age 30, he’s been tasked with upgrading an Atlanta Falcon running game that’s been hamstrung by Mike Davis’s inability to recapture the brief lightning he brought to Carolina last fall. And Patterson has been very good at it.

Patterson missed most of the previous two weeks due to injury — two games in which his Falcons scored zero touchdowns. He found the end zone twice in the first half to lift Atlanta to a 21-14 get-right (kinda) victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. His 108 rushing yards marked a career high. His 135 total yards marked the fifth time this season he’s sprung for 100+ yards from scrimmage this season. The rest of the Atlanta roster has two such games combined.

He’s had six different games this season in which he’s been responsible for at least three expected points added this fall — as many as Matt Ryan. No other skill player in the lineup has more than three (Kyle Pitts). It’s not an exaggeration to suggest he’s the most important player in Atlanta’s offense.

This is a stunning emergence from a 30-year-old player whose All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors were all a function of special teams ability. Atlanta signed him to a one-year, $3 million contract only to see him emerge as an unlikely engine. A man who hadn’t had more than 500 yards from scrimmage in a single season since 2014 has 911 through 10 games at an age where most players who rely on their speed and shiftiness out of the backfield are breaking down, not out.

What’s the difference? A big part is Atlanta’s lack of playmakers, as Julio Jones’ departure, Calvin Ridley’s absence, and Mike Davis’ sudden case of football amnesia has pressed Patterson into 14.5 rushes + targets per game — nearly three times his career average of 5.6 heading into 2021. That lack of usage and limited injury history — he’d only missed one regular season game coming into this fall — helped prime him for a breakout.

Between 2013 and 2020, Patterson had 383 catches and carries as well as 240 kick or punt returns. 26 of those ended in touchdowns, so assuming he didn’t run out of bounds on any of his other plays he’s absorbed 597 hits in his NFL career without having to worry much about blitz pickups.

Christian McCaffrey, by comparison, was tackled 713 times in 2018 and 2019 alone. Le’Veon Bell was tackled 722 times between 2016 and 2017. Patterson is able to look as good as he does at age 30 because, going by his odometer, he is fresh as hell compared to other dual-threat running backs.

Patterson can’t hang with prime McCaffrey or Bell, but he’s proven he’s capable of rewriting his career at a time where guys with his skillset are generally contemplating retirement or buried on the depth chart as veteran leadership. There aren’t many bright spots in Atlanta’s 2021. Patterson qualifying for a Pro Bowl as something other than a returner would certainly qualify.

The Philadelphia Eagles cannot be trusted

After Week 11’s win over the New Orleans Saints, there was a reasonable hope the Eagles could be 10-6 heading into a potential NFC East title game showdown with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18. Philadelphia, playing well despite more than $50 million tied up in dead salary cap commitments, had gotten through the toughest part of its schedule at 5-6 and now had games against the New York Giants (x2), Washington Football Team (x2) and New York Jets surrounding a bye.

One Sunday later, those hopes are gone. The Eagles, revitalized by their transition to a run-first offense, managed just seven points in a loss to the Giants and their 30th-ranked rushing defense.

What’s worse is the game went more or less according to head coach Nick Sirianni’s play. Philadelphia ran the ball 33 times against 32 dropbacks, even in a game the Eagles trailed for more than 51 minutes. They averaged more than six yards per carry. They held the Giants to 264 total yards and a 25 percent success rate on third down.

This all should have led to a win and a .500 record for Philly. Instead, the Eagles turned nearly every scoring opportunity into a new and exciting way to wet their pants. Here’s Hurts, turning a trip to the Giants’ one-yard line into zero points before halftime:

Here’s Philadelphia’s first trip into the red zone, in which Hurts ignores a safe third down checkdown to his running back in order to throw into double coverage over the middle:

Here’s Boston Scott, driving toward a possible game-winning touchdown, fumbling the ball with under two minutes to play:

And here’s Jalen Reagor, damning himself to Nelson Agholor jokes for the remainder of his Eagles career (so, possibly just a few more weeks) not once …

but TWICE:

Philadelphia had six drives inside New York territory and scored on exactly one of them. Jason Garrett’s departure did nothing to upgrade the Giants’ offense, and it meant nothing. Joe Judge’s team did not win as much as it accepted the Eagles’ resignation from this game with limited dignity.

Philly’s 5-6 record was predicated on being able to take care of the teams it’s supposed to beat. That fell apart in Week 12. While there’s still a path to the postseason in a wide open NFC Wild Card race, all the penciled-in wins until Week 18 now suddenly feel a lot more questionable.

The New England Patriots are streaking, but not invincible

The Patriots handed out more than $100 million worth of contracts to bring Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, and Nelson Agholor aboard to revamp their offense. The guy who has made the biggest difference, however, is a player who signed an under-the-radar three-year, $15 million deal that pays him 40 percent of what either of the team’s starting tight ends will make.

Kendrick Bourne hasn’t been an every-week presence in rookie Mac Jones’ passing game, but he’s emerged as the top playmaker in the young quarterback’s arsenal. The fifth-year wideout has already tied his career high in touchdown catches after adding a pair against the Tennessee Titans Sunday:

His 79.2 percent catch rate is a career high by more than 10 points despite being targeted downfield by Jones deeper than he’d ever been before as a 49er. He’s averaging more yards after catch than ever while dropping fewer passes. Most importantly, he’s pushed his young QB to a 139.2 passer rating when targeted — best among Patriot wideouts by a significant margin.

Bourne came to New England as a run-after-catch chain-mover but has emerged as a trusted target with a much deeper route tree than his San Francisco tenure suggested.

Of course, he’s just one piece of a Patriot offense that averaged nearly seven yards per play against a conference rival en route to 20 unanswered second half points and a 36-13 win. Jones, a balanced receiving corps in tow, was 20 expected points better than the veteran Pro Bowl quarterback on the other sideline:

That marks Jones’ fifth outing in 12 games where he’s been worth at least 12 EPA for the Pats’ offense.

Even so, a double-digit win over the AFC’s top team, at least record-wise, will still give Bill Belichick plenty to parse through when he looks at game tape Monday. New England stared down a Titans offense without its All-Pro tailback (Derrick Henry), his backup (Jeremy McNichols), or *his* backup (Darrynton Evans). It managed to give up 100+ rushing yard performances to both D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard, two players who combined for 143 rushing yards between them in the entire 2020 season.

The Patriots were able to limit the damage of those performances with a pair of clutch forced fumbles:

But there’s clearly a weakness here for a team whose defensive dominance has often hinged on its strength against the pass. The Titans had six handoffs spring for at least 12 yards Sunday. Nearly one third of Hilliard’s rushes ended in first downs or touchdowns.

It was the sixth time in 12 games the Pats allowed at least 120 yards on the ground. More distressingly, it came on a day where New England knew Tennessee had little to offer in the passing game. Ryan Tannehill, coming off a four-interception day without AJ Brown or Julio Jones in the lineup, barely completed more than half his passes and threw for fewer than 100 yards but the Titans still averaged 5.7 yards per play — an above-average league mark — thanks to their similarly undermanned run game.

What’s going to happen when New England faces a team that can run *and* pass effectively? The Cowboys used the threat of their ground game to create the space for a 445-yard, three touchdown performance from Dak Prescott. What will Jonathan Taylor do in Week 15? What if the Bills can get some sustained competence from their running back rotation?

These are good problems to have in the midst of a six-game winning streak that includes victories over potential AFC playoff opponents like the Chargers, Browns, and Titans. The Patriots aren’t the PATRIOTS yet, but they’re getting there.

The Cam Newton comeback tour regrets to inform you that its GPS died and it is now lost somewhere in the western Carolinas

Newton didn’t win in his return to Charlotte last week, but that was arguably not his fault.

The Carolina Panthers’ loss against the Miami Dolphins in Week 12, however, almost certainly was. Behold, a stat line bad enough to get you benched in favor of a guy with a career 51.6 passer rating:

That is, officially, a 23.8 percent completion rate. It is, per Statmuse, the lowest completion rate from a starting quarterback in a regular season game since 1995 and one of the seven lowest of all time. It is stunning.

One week after completing six of seven passes 10+ yards downfield for a pair of touchdowns and a perfect 158.3 passer rating, Newton was a disaster on deep balls. He completed just one of seven such passes against Miami for 64 yards, two interceptions, and a 25.6 rating.

That’s the worst quarterback performance in franchise history, even lower than the six of 21 performance Frank Reich put together in the second game the team ever played (a 31-9 loss to the Bills). When it came to passes 5+ yards downfield he attempted eight and completed twice as many to the Miami Dolphins as he did to his own wideouts (one).

Carolina is now 5-7 and possibly staring down another extended stretch without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. Newton will get a chance to redeem himself because the Panthers don’t have a better option. PJ Walker had a 40.4 passer rating in relief (39.8 is the score you’d get if you threw 10 passes and fired each of them into the turf). The NFC remains open for business when it comes to a sloppy playoff race, but it might as well be Morton’s and Newton is playing like the dollar menu is a luxury he can’t afford.

As for the Dolphins, they’ve emerged from the ether of a 1-7 start to rise to 5-7 and an unlikely spot on the periphery of the AFC’s Wild Card race. Xavien Howard (four passes defensed, one interception in that span) and Byron Jones are finally starting to look like a cornerback tandem worth more than $31 million in cap space for a team that’s only given up 205 passing yards per game during that streak.

They still need a lot to go right to make a playoff push, but 2021 won’t be the disaster it once appeared to be. Factor in some solid recent play from Tua Tagovailoa and you might even find a reason for optimism in Miami this winter.

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