Mastrodonato: Red Sox’ addition of Michael Wacha is underwhelming, but it’s just the beginning

There’s nothing wrong with taking a $7 million gamble on a back-end starter who was once a highly-touted pitching prospect and first-round draft pick.

As long as Michael Wacha isn’t the best starting pitcher the Red Sox acquire this offseason, of course.

The Sox made it official on Saturday morning, when they announced the signing of the 30-year-old right-hander to a one-year deal worth $7 million.

After declining the options on Martin Perez and Garrett Richards, the Sox saved some money on the back end of their rotation and used a chunk of it on Wacha, a former top prospect who has been statistically one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball over the last three years.

This isn’t new for the Red Sox under chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. They’ve prioritized depth and bargain signings instead of paying prospect value or cash for more proven pitchers.

And they let Eduardo Rodriguez hit free agency and were content with letting him sign with the Detroit Tigers for $77 million over five years.

“There are deep roots here, and that made it harder to see him go, but ultimately it’s something where, we’re happy for him and we have to be comfortable with how far we were willing to extend,” Bloom said last week.

Wacha can replace Perez or Richards, but it’s a longshot to expect him to replace Rodriguez.

Since the start of the 2019 season, there have been 79 pitchers to make at least 50 big league starts. Of them, Wacha ranks 74th with a 5.11 ERA.

In 2019, the Red Sox signed a similar pitcher, Martin Perez, whose 5.21 ERA ranked 58th out of 59 pitchers with at least 75 starts over the previous three years. The Sox were betting that he’d be better with them, and he was, ever so slightly, with a 4.65 ERA over two years in Boston.

Betting low on guys like Perez and Wacha is a perfectly fine thing to do, even for a big market team, as long as there are other additions.

The Red Sox clearly need help in the rotation, where Chris Sale struggled in his first year back from Tommy John surgery and the only other returning starters are Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta.

Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock figure to factor in, though the Sox have shown a preference to use them in versatile multi-inning swing roles.

Wacha has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, with various ailments limiting him to an average of 17 starts since 2018.

“I would say 2020 wasn’t a great year with the shutdown and getting back into it,” Wacha said Saturday. “I wouldn’t say I ever got back to where I was in that spring training. But in early 2019 I felt good. But I would say 2018, before the oblique injury, the ball was coming out really nice. But even then, I didn’t really even have the velocity that I had this past year.

“I felt like my velo tick-up this year was a good sign with my arm strength and how my body was moving. And I felt like the changeup was as nasty as it’s been in my whole career, and so I feel like a new man out there.”

With the Rays in 2021, Wacha’s fastball averaged 94 mph, putting him in the 29th percentile among his peers. He was one of the hardest-hit pitchers in the league, with his opponents’ maximum exit velocity ranking in the 2nd percentile and barrel percentage in the 11th percentile.

His two promising statistics were a low walk rate and a high chase rate.

“Last year was probably the best my shoulder and elbow felt in my whole career,” he said. “I missed a little time with a little hamstring strain last year, but other than that, the shoulder and everything was healthy and the ball was coming out the best it’s been.”

A rotation of Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Wacha doesn’t look like enough to make a playoff run, though there have to be more additions coming.

Wacha made just one playoff appearance this year, when he was shelled by the Sox for six runs on nine hits in 2 2/3 innings during the American League Division Series.

There’s no question the Sox will need another starter or two. Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, Max Scherzer and Marcus Stroman are among the best free agents still available. There’s also the possibility of a trade, though Bloom has been hesitant to trade away prospects during his tenure.

There’s plenty of money to be spent if the Sox choose to go that route. There’s uncertainty over how the luxury tax will work when the collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1, but it’s fair to suggest the Sox should be big spenders after staying under the threshold while leaning more towards a rebuild in ’20 and ’21.

A pitcher like Wacha is a perfectly fine lottery ticket to take a gamble on.

But there’s a lot more work to do.