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Friday Walkthrough Week 12: Javonte Williams Narrative Street

Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

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Welcome to the Friday Walkthrough. Every week I’ll be outlining critical fantasy football context for the upcoming slate of games.

At the end of the article, I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used as well as what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from.

Byes: Cardinals, Chiefs

Already Played: Bears, Lions, Raiders, Cowboys, Bills, Saints.

Buccaneers at Colts, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 28

Tom Brady rebounded from his worst game of the season against Washington to his third-best outing of the year against the Giants. Brady now ranks seventh in EPA* per play (which measures efficiency) and 13th in completion percentage over expected, which measures accuracy. He’s having an impressive season for any quarterback, let alone one who is 44 years old.

Brady now gets a Colts defense ranked 12th in EPA allowed per dropback, 11th in Pro Football Focus’ pass rush grades, and 20th in PFF’s coverage grades. But the Colts have faced an easy passing schedule that includes the Jets, Jaguars, Texans, Dolphins, and Seahawks, all of whom rank bottom 10 in EPA per dropback. This helps explain how the Colts haven’t become a major pass funnel, despite having an elite run defense that is ranked third in EPA allowed per rush and fifth in run defense grade.

This matchup sets up incredibly well for the Buccaneers, who have no problem abandoning the run and airing it out. The Buccaneers are second to only the Chiefs with a 10% pass rate over expected and rank third in situation-neutral pass rate. They have yet to go run-heavy in a single week this season; they’re not going to break that streak in a matchup that so clearly favors the pass.

Chris Godwin leads healthy Buccaneers wide receivers with 1.89 yards per route run, which jumps up to an elite 2.15 in games without Antonio Brown. However, the effect that Brown’s absence has had on Godwin looks to be overblown. The most significant change has been a jump in Godwin’s yards per target from 9.0 to 10.6. This has happened despite a more shallow average depth of target (aDOT) in games without Brown, 9.5 vs. 7.0. We usually see the opposite effect. If a receiver sees targets deeper downfield, their ability to hit big plays and put up a high YPT increases. But Godwin’s efficiency has spiked while his target depth has fallen. To be fair, Godwin has seen an increase in his target rate with Brown out, jumping from an 18% target per route run to 20%, but that could also be an effect of his shallower targets... underneath receivers tend to get targeted more frequently.

All this to say, Godwin has run hot recently, and while his hot streak has coincided with Brown’s absence, there’s not much evidence that it’s directly related to it.

Mike Evans has also seen his YPT increase in Brown’s absence, but Evans had been running cold in YPT to start the season, and he failed to consistently connect on his deeper targets. What we’ve seen from Evans recently is sustainable, whereas Godwin is likely in store for some negative regression in YPT. Both players are strong starting options, but I prefer Evans.

Rob Gronkowski returned on Monday night and ran a route on 56% of dropbacks. He was targeted heavily with a 29% target rate and an 8.1 aDOT. Gronk is second to Antonio Brown this season with an elite 2.13 YPRR, which is sustainable based on his target profile. He’s unlikely to run a full complement of routes (~75%+ for a tight end), but he’s still a low-end TE1 due to his ability to consistently draw targets.

Leonard Fournette played 59% of snaps and handled 47% of backfield touches against the Giants. The Buccaneers easy win reduced his opportunity, as evidenced by Ke’Shawn Vaughn seeing 12% of snaps and 14% of backfield attempts. Ronald Jones was a true thorn in his side, though, stealing 38% of backfield attempts and scoring a touchdown. Pro Football Focus measured Jones’ workload at 5.1 expected points and Fournette’s at 13.4. There’s no need to panic on Fournette; he’s still RB10 on the season in expected points, and has a massive lead over Jones in target share, 13% to 1%. Fournette routinely underperforms his workload, having left 25.3 points on the field this season, the fifth-most among running backs. But he has a very strong setup this week, with a game environment that should be back and forth and pass-heavy.

*(Expected Points Added, EPA, is an efficiency metric that calculates the expected points of a game situation compared to the previous play. This measures how much each play added or subtracted from a team’s point expectation. I exclude garbage time for all EPA data in this article. Data courtesy of rbsdm.com)

Colts Implied Team Total: 25

Carson Wentz is likely to see increased passing volume this week. The Buccaneers rank first in EPA allowed per rush and 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback. As a result, they have been an insane pass funnel. Opponents are averaging a 10% pass rate over expected and are shifting 11% to the pass. The Dolphins, the league’s second-biggest pass funnel, are creating just a 3% shift to the pass.

Wentz has been mediocre-poor this season, ranking 23rd in EPA per dropback and 28th in CPOE. But he’s done enough to support the Colts’ key weapons, and the potential for additional passing attempts creates spike week upside for his WR1, Michael Pittman.

Pittman has a solid 23% target share and an impressive 31% air yard share this season. His target profile is actually strikingly similar to Allen Robinson‘s (22% target share, 31% air yard share), highlighting the importance of quarterback play and passing volume.

The matchup puts T.Y. Hilton in play as a dart throw option. Hilton has a 14.6 aDOT and is running cold with a 7.9 YPT. Pittman runs basically every route, while Hilton is likely to fall between 60-75%, but Hilton has been targeted at nearly the same rate (19% of routes) as Pittman (20%).

Jonathan Taylor just torched the top-ranked defense in EPA per play. He now gets a Buccaneers defense that literally every single opponent has gone pass-heavy against. Smashing the Buccaneers’ run defense would truly cement his legend.

And honestly, the Colts should play to their strengths here, rather than worrying about the Buccaneers. Much of the Buccaneers’ strength on the ground has been driven by an easy run schedule. Half of the Buccaneers’ opponents (the Dolphins, Falcons, Giants, Rams, and Washington) rank bottom 11 in EPA per rush. And they’ve faced just two top 10 rushing offenses (the Eagles and Patriots). PFF’s grades back up the idea that the Buccaneers are an over-rated run defense; they rank 14th in run defense grade. The Colts rank fourth in EPA per rush and will be the Buccaneers’ most difficult rushing matchup this season. It’s entirely possible the Buccaneers get exposed here.

If the Colts are willing to buck the trend and lean on Taylor, he’s shown all the talent needed to thrive this week. Taylor ranks second in NFL Next Gen’s success/attempt metric, second in PFF’s breakaway percentage, fifth in elusive rating, and ninth in YPRR.

The biggest obstacle in his path could ultimately be play volume. The Colts are the slowest team in the league in situation-neutral seconds per play. And the Colts may employ the same keep-away strategy that Washington used to defeat the Buccaneers in Week 10. Fortunately, the Buccaneers are the sixth fastest team in situation-neutral pace. So they should be able to push the Colts while putting up points. This game could definitely bog down, or Taylor could get scripted out, but he also has upside for another massive performance.

Jets at Titans, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Jets Implied Team Total: 21

Zach Wilson has been the worst quarterback in the league in EPA per play this season, and only Trevor Siemian has been less accurate. It brings me no pleasure to tell you that he will be starting this Sunday.

Wilson is facing a Texans defense ranked 22nd in EPA allowed per rush and 31st in coverage grade. The critical question is if the Texans can get pressure on Wilson. The Texans rank 10th in pass rush grade, and Wilson ranks 30th in passer rating when pressured. But fortunately, the Texans don’t blitz a lot, ranking 30th in blitz rate. Wilson is atrocious against the blitz. Only Mike White has a worse passer rating, and Wilson’s 4.1 YPA against the blitz is the lowest in the NFL. Wilson can still meltdown if the Texans get to him with their front four, but he has upside for a solid day against a beatable secondary.

Elijah Moore finally turned into a full-time receiver against the Dolphins, running a route on 81% of dropbacks after posting a 51% route rate in Week 10. Keelan Cole took a backseat, declining from 47% to 21%. Moore made significant strides during Wilson’s injury and now has the most valuable target profile on the Jets. He’s been targeted on 22% of his routes with a 12.1 aDOT. He’s running cold with a 7.7 YPT, but his ability to draw deep targets has been very impressive, and he’s beginning to make plays downfield. It’s unclear how much of this will translate to this week, as he’s had a laughably poor connection with Wilson this season. Moore had a 3.0 YPT from Week 1-7; he’s at 12.0 since. Betting against YPT is almost always the sharp move, but Wilson’s return still makes me a bit queasy.

Jamison Crowder saw his route rate decline from 92% in Week 10 to 72% in Week 11, and it was actually Corey Davis who picked up the slack. Davis played a season-high 49% of his snaps in the slot. He still had a deep, 13.7 aDOT, so it wasn’t a complete role shift. Davis has had a solid connection with Wilson, and increased slot deployment may strengthen that.

The Texans have a strong run defense ranked sixth in EPA allowed per rush, but that may not matter a ton since the Jets can’t run the ball on anyone. The Jets rank 27th in EPA per rush and just lost Michael Carter to an ankle injury.

Ty Johnson looks like a capable back, but he’s best as a receiver. Johnson ranks RB13 in YPRR, but just RB39 in elusive rating. If the Jets keep the game close enough to establish the run, it’ll likely mean a more generous dose of Tevin Coleman. Coleman is theoretically the early-down specialist, but he ranks RB56 in elusive rating. He does at least live up to his rushing specialist reputation by being terrible as a receiver, ranking RB53 in YPRR. Coleman played 28% of snaps to just 6% for Ty Johnson in Week 11, so we’ll likely see quite a bit of Coleman this week. But it’s going to be hard to watch. Johnson looks like the better dart throw FLEX option, as a bet that he takes over Carter’s 11% target share.

Texans Implied Team Total: 23.5

Tyrod Taylor played well against the Titans, finishing ninth in EPA per play and ninth in CPOE. He was helped by positive game script that allowed the Texans to hand the ball off 32 times and pick their spots through the air.

With the Texans favored this week (imagine being an underdog to the 2-8 Texans), we should see the Texans attempt to deploy a similar game plan built around attacking the Jets on the ground. The Jets rank 31st in EPA allowed per rush and 32nd in run defense grade. They are absolutely atrocious against the run.

Atrocious is the word of the day because the Texans will be rolling out Rex Burkhead and the corpse of David Johnson at running back. Burkhead led the team with 18 rushes against the Titans. He managed just 2.2 yards per carry and was still nearly twice as efficient as Johnson, who had just 18 yards on 13 carries. Phillip Lindsay had a 3% of snaps in Week 11 and has been completely phased out of the offense. Burkhead, in a truly unbelievable twist, is an RB2 fill-in option this week.

The Jets are terrible against the run... but they’re somehow even worse against the pass. They rank 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 30th in coverage grade. The Texans are heavily tilted to the run, ranking 29th in situation-neutral pass rate and 21st in pass rate over expected, but Taylor should be efficient on his limited dropbacks.

Brandin Cooks continues to see elite volume. He just needs efficiency for a big week. Cooks has a 29% target share and a 43% air yard share this season and trails only Davante Adams in weighted opportunity rating (WOPR). His 7.8 YPT is quite poor for his 11.8 aDOT, however. That kind of thing tends to happen when you’re on the 2021 Texans, but the Jets’ defense + elite volume is an equation that tends to spit out spike weeks.

Eagles at Giants, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Eagles Implied Team Total: 24.25

Philadelphia has shifted dramatically over the season, and at this point, the Eagles’ identity is built around the run.

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This week they’re facing a Giants defense ranked 26th in EPA allowed per rush and 25th in run defense. Having just run all over the Saints’ second graded run defense, they’re very likely to go run-heavy here.

Miles Sanders returned in Week 11 and handled 46% of snaps and 50% of backfield touches. With Jordan Howard now injured, he has a chance for an expanded role. Sanders has been solid this season, ranking RB20 in success/attempt, RB25 in elusive rating, and RB7 in breakaway percentage. He’s struggled as a receiver with a 0.77 YPRR that ranks RB45, but he’s capable of carrying the load as a rusher.

Boston Scott should mix in frequently. He handled 37% of snaps in Week 11 and 19% of backfield touches. The concern for Sanders and Scott is that Kenneth Gainwell returns to the rotation after being a healthy scratch last week. Gainwell isn’t involved as a rusher, but he played 31% of snaps in Week 10. If Gainwell is involved again, it will ding to Sanders’ ceiling while making Scott much harder to trust as an RB2 fill-in.

The nice thing about the Eagles’ new approach is it’s setting their quarterback up for success. Jalen Hurts ranks 21st in EPA per dropback this season, but since the Eagles shifted to a run-heavy identity, Hurts has jumped up all the way to second.

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The Eagles’ new formula of pairing a run-first approach with an efficient passing game is likely to continue working here. The Giants rank 20th in EPA allowed per dropback, 31st in pass rush grade, and 22nd in coverage grade.

DeVonta Smith has an elite 41% share of the Eagles’ air yards and an impressive 1.84 YPRR. His 14.9 aDOT gives him upside for a big week in a good matchup. The Eagles reduced passing volume makes him highly volatile, but his big play ability makes him a high-end WR3.

Dallas Goedert leads the team with a 2.16 YPRR, but he’s running extremely hot with an 11.2 YPT, which is well above expectations for his 8.8 aDOT. But had a 90% route rate in Week 11 and is functionally the Eagles’ WR2. He’s due for some negative regression in efficiency, but he has rare opportunity for a tight end.

Giants Implied Team Total: 20.75

Daniel Jones ranks 25th in EPA per play and 18th in CPOE. He showed some promise early in the season but has since regressed significantly, to the point that he’ll now be playing for a new offensive coordinator... who could have seen this coming?

In his first game under Freddie Kitchens, Jones will be playing an Eagles defense that is a solid all-around unit. The Eagles rank 18th in EPA allowed per dropback, second in pass rush grade, and 17th in coverage grade. The Eagles have also played a difficult passing schedule that has included the Chargers, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Falcons, Cowboys, and 49ers, who all rank top 10 in EPA per dropback. Daniel Jones could be in for a long day.

Evan Engram has led the Giant in routes run in each of the last three weeks, despite having a 0.96 YPRR this season. This strange deployment is likely a thing of the past, with Kitchens now installed as coordinator and Kyle Rudolph likely unavailable to handle inline snaps while Engram is in the slot.

If Engram sees a reduced role, it can open up routes for actual wide receivers, none of whom have run a route on more than 80% of dropbacks since Week 6, while Engram was at 100% and 93% over the last two weeks.

If Kadarius Toney can play through his quad injury, he’ll be the most exciting option among Giants’ receivers. Toney leads the Giants with a 2.32 YPRR. He’s running a bit hot in YPT, but the dude draws targets with ease. He’s been targeted on 27% of his routes this season. He ran a route on just 61% of dropbacks in Week 11, however. He’ll need to be healthy enough for a full-time role for us to trust him in this difficult matchup.

Kenny Golladay has to regret signing with New York. He ran a route on 78% of dropbacks against the Buccaneers and was targeted on just 6% of his routes. He has a similar deep threat role to the one he had in Detroit, with a 14.7 aDOT. But he’s not getting targets, with a weak 16% target share this season. He looks like a low-end FLEX option.

The Eagles are also a solid run defense, ranked 16th in EPA allowed per rush and 10th in run defense grade. Teams are shifting 2% to the run against them, perhaps to avoid their pass rush.

The Giants have been pass-heavy this season with a 4% pass rate over expected, but that could change under Kitchens. Given the coaching shakeup and the matchup, it’s likely we see the Giants lean a bit more on Saquon Barkley this week.

Saquon Barkley is going to be fine, by the way. He handled 62% of snaps, and 67% of backfield touches in his first game back from his ankle sprain. He might have seen more work had the game not been a blowout. The Giants can be expected to ramp up his workload again like they did to begin the season.

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Barkley hasn’t been quite as dynamic this year, ranking RB40 in elusive rating and RB26 in YPRR, but he’s shown flashes of his former self, ranking RB7 in breakaway percentage (tied with Miles Sanders and one spot ahead of Dalvin Cook). Barkley is in a nice spot with New York likely shifting to the run and now in his second game back from injury.

Panthers at Dolphins, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Panthers Implied Team Total: 22

Cam Newton had a solid return as the Panthers’ starter, ranking 17th in EPA per play and fifth in CPOE. Newton, as expected, is changing the Panthers’ offensive approach. They posted a -8% pass rate over expected, their second most run-heavy result of the season. And keep in mind they were playing Washington, clear pass funnel.

Even if Newton continues playing well, it looks like passing volume will be limited in Carolina going forward. Newton is set up for continued success this week, though. He’s facing a Dolphins defense that ranks eighth in EPA allowed per dropback, 22nd in pass rush grade, and 16th in coverage grade.

DJ Moore has a 1.89 YPRR, which is a little below what we’d like to see with his passing offense now contracting. Fortunately, Moore may have some positive regression on the way. His 7.6 YPT is below expected for his 10.7 aDOT, and his elite 41% air yard share points to additional upside beyond what he’s been able to deliver so far. As long as Newton doesn’t go into a shell, Moore should be in for a WR2 week.

Christian McCaffrey is back in his every snap role. He saw 90% of snaps in Week 11 and handled 91% of backfield attempts. He also ran a route on 90% of dropbacks and is functionally the Panthers’ WR2. And, to be honest, in terms of YPRR, he’s their WR1. McCaffrey leads the team with an ultra-elite 2.98 YPRR. I prefer D.J. Moore’s combination of target rate and aDOT... but McCaffrey is a running back. The fact that he has a legitimate claim on the Panthers’ WR1 role while also handling 90%+ of backfield carries is extraordinary. He’s locked into an extremely valuable role and will be able to withstand the occasional Newton TD vulture.

Dolphins Implied Team Total: 20

Tua Tagovailoa had his most efficient week against the Jets and now ranks 18th in EPA per play and 11th in CPOE. He faces a major test this week, however.

The Panthers rank third in EPA allowed per dropback, 15th in pass rush grade, and sixth in coverage grade. The Panthers have faced a middle-of-the-road schedule this season and do not appear to be a paper tiger. This is clear in the pressure rate numbers, where the Panthers are second to the Bills in pressures within 2.5 seconds or less. Tagovailoa had a good Week 11, finishing eighth in EPA per play. But that was against the Jets. He’ll need to step up his game to support a productive passing offense this week.

Jaylen Waddle is operating as the Dolphins WR1, but it’s not an ideal setup for the rookie. Waddle is running a ton of routes, most recently posting a 91% route rate against the Jets. But he’s primarily a slot receiver and would likely benefit from better outside weapons who can help open things up underneath. Waddle has just a 1.48 YPRR this season, which is very mediocre. He should have some positive regression on the way, as his 6.8 YPT is below expectations. But he has a 6.9 aDOT, so even if he does start producing more efficiently, he’s not a great bet for huge plays in his current role.

Mike Gesicki is has a slightly better 1.56 YPRR, and he is being used further downfield with a 9.4 aDOT. Gesicki looks like the more appealing start, given his tight end eligibility, but the matchup is bad enough that it’s worth considering other options.

According to PFF’s expected fantasy points, Myles Gaskin has left 31.9 points on the field this season, the second-worst showing among running backs. That includes 11.4 points left on the field against the Jets. PFF valued his workload at 30 points, but he managed just 18.6 PPR points. Nevertheless, Gaskin should get a substantial workload yet again, even if he’s unlikely to take full advantage of it.

The Panthers rank 13th in EPA allowed per rush and have quietly turned into a Chargers-level run funnel. Opponents are averaging a -5% PROE against them and are shifting 5% to the run. Last week, the Dolphins had a -1% PROE, which is as run-heavy as they’ve been all season, so they may not fully embrace the matchup, but they’re also unlikely to completely ignore it. Gaskin retains value as a usage-based RB2.

Titans at Patriots, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Titans Implied Team Total: 18.75

Ryan Tannehill is coming off a horrific performance against the Texans, where he ranked 28th in EPA per play and 24th in CPOE. He now faces a tough Patriots defense ranked fifth in EPA allowed per dropback and third in coverage grade.

Tannehill is having a solid year, ranking 10th in EPA per play and 14th in CPOE, but Week 11 was such a disaster that it’s fair to wonder if he can be the same quarterback without Derrick Henry. Tannehill was fine in his first two games without Henry but got exposed against the Texans.

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Henry’s loss could be mitigated by competent play calling, but we can’t always count on that. In Week 11, the Titans completely abandoned play action. Tannehill ran it on just 11% of his dropbacks, the lowest percentage of the week.

The Titans aren’t going to be able to run the ball as effectively without Henry. That’s obvious. But rushing efficiency doesn’t have a significant impact on play action success, so Henry’s loss doesn’t have to have a meaningful effect on Tennessee’s play action rate. But it seems like the Titans’ coaches feel differently.

Fortunately, the Titans have a decent shot at getting the ground game rolling this week. The Patriots rank 15th in run defense grade. They rank an impressive seventh in EPA allowed per rush, but that looks inflated by an easy schedule that includes the Dolphins, Texans, Falcons, and Jets (twice), who are all bottom-six rushing offenses. Patriots’ opponents agree that their run defense is over-rated and have game planned accordingly. Opponents are averaging a -2% pass rate over expected against the Patriots and are shifting 3% to the run.

The Titans will jump at the opportunity to revive their rushing game. Even since losing Henry, the Titans rank 22nd in situation-neutral pass rate. Their -2% pass rate over expected is up considerably from their -7% PROE with Henry, but they still have an affinity for the run, and we’ll likely see an old-school Titans game plan here.

D’Onta Foreman played just 19% of snaps against the Texans but handled 30% of backfield attempts. Following Adrian Peterson’s release, he has a good chance of seeing his early-down role expand. Peterson also played 19% of snaps against the Texans and handled 39% of backfield attempts. So there’s a fair amount of rushing volume up for grabs.

Dontrelle Hilliard dominated with a 63% snap share in Week 11 but appears to be in the Jeremy McNichols role. We’re likely looking at a three-way split if McNichols is back, with none of the backs being usable. However, if McNichols is out again with a concussion, Foreman looks like a viable dart throw as a bet on positive game script, and Hilliard is in play as a bet that the Patriots front-run.

A.J. Brown is banged up and looks genuinely questionable for Sunday. If he suits up and the Titans’ coaches feel comfortable enough with their rushing game to play action at a high rate, he can get rolling again this week. Brown will still need to overcome Bill Belichick. Taking away Brown is one of the more obvious Belichick-style tactics, and he will likely be facing a ton of defensive attention. Still, Brown is a star who can overcome difficult matchups.

Brown has an elite 2.27 YPRR and is due for positive regression. His 8.1 YPT is low for his 12.0 aDOT, and we should see that change eventually. What doesn’t change is Brown’s ability to draw targets. He has a 28% target rate this season, which is absolutely absurd for his route tree. Brown has dealt with injuries this season and has run a route on only 76% of dropbacks as a result. Yet, he’s still managed to post an elite 40% air yard share. Belichick will definitely try to limit Brown this week, but he’ll have his work cut out for him, assuming the third-year star is available.

Patriots Implied Team Total: 25.25

Mac Jones ranks 16th in EPA per play and third in CPOE. His accuracy may be special. In retrospect, it’s pretty amazing that the idea of the 49ers selecting Jones at No. 3 seemed unbelievable... when it’s now clear he should have gone No. 1 overall. (I’m kidding, I promise).

Jones now gets a Titans defense that has played elite football at times. They held the Chiefs to three points and the Rams to 16. But they also let Zach Wilson put up 27 points in Week 4, on their way to an embarrassing loss against the Jets.

The Titans are a good, if up-and-down, pass defense. They rank 10th in EPA allowed per dropback and second in coverage grade. But pressure can mess with Jones, and the Titans don’t do that very well. Jones ranks 22nd in YPA when pressured, but the Titans rank just 27th in pass rush grade. He’s unlikely to light the Titans up but should be able to support at least one receiver.

Jakobi Meyers finally scored his first career TD in Week 10, and he continues to operate as the Patriots’ clear WR1. He leads the team with a 93% route rate, a 23% target share, and a 27% air yard share. He has a reasonably deep 9.1 aDOT for a slot receiver, which gives him a bit of upside when Jones is playing well. Meyers’ 6.6 YPT is well below expectations for his aDOT, so if Jones can overcome a tough matchup, Meyers could pay off as a FLEX option.

The Titans are more vulnerable against the run than the pass, ranking 17th in EPA allowed per rush. This season, the Patriots have gone extremely run-heavy in most of their plus matchups, posting a -10% pass rate over expected against the Cowboys, -7% against the Jets, and -23% against the Chargers. With both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson playing well, they’ll likely lean on their backfield this week.

Stevenson and Harris split snaps nearly evenly last week, which is fine. The problem is that Brandon Bolden also mixed in for 27% of snaps and ran a route on 37% of dropbacks. That limited Harris to a 27% route rate and Stevenson to 17%. It also left Stevenson with 39% of snaps and Harris with 34%. Both Harris and Stevenson have been impressive this year and could overcome the split workload, with overall rushing attempts likely to be high. Stevenson ranks ninth in elusive rating and third in YPRR. Harris has shown big-play upside, ranking 17th in breakaway percentage. Harris is likely the better option as a bet on a long TD run, but both are in play as low-end RB2.

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Steelers at Bengals, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Steelers Implied Team Total: 20.75

Ben Roethlisberger ranks 24th in EPA per play and 30th in CPOE. He faces a Bengals defense that has played efficiently but isn’t graded particularly well. The Bengals rank seventh in EPA allowed per dropback but 19th in pass rush grade and 19th in coverage grade. The PFF grades are likely more accurate here. The Bengals have played a cupcake schedule that includes the Lions, Jets, and Jaguars—literally the three worst teams in the NFL in EPA per dropback.

The Steelers are actually part of the Bengals’ easy schedule as well. They played in Week 3, and the Steelers scored just 10 points. It’s tough to ever have high expectations for Roethlisberger, but he should be able to lead a more effective attack in this rematch.

Diontae Johnson is still the Steelers’ clear WR1. He has been targeted on an elite 28% of his routes. Despite having a 9.8 aDOT to Chase Claypool‘s 12.4, Johnson leads the Steelers with a 38% air yard share. Claypool isn’t far behind with a 35% air yard share, but his 20% target share is nowhere near Johnson’s 29%. Johnson is a volume-based high-end WR2 this week, where Claypool looks more like a WR3.

With Eric Ebron injured, Pat Freiermuth should be far above his 49% route rate from Week 11. He has a fairly low upside target profile, outside of the red zone, with a 6.1 aDOT. But Freiermuth has been targeted on 22% of his routes, and he easily slots in as a TE1 this week.

Najee Harris has an expected points workload of 22.5 points per game, which leads the NFL. Derrick Henry is the next closest back this season at 21 points per game. Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey are the only other backs over 20. He could be having an unbelievable season. But Harris has left 33.8 points on the field, for an average of 3.4 per game. No running back has left more points on the field.

Concerningly, Harris’ receiving involvement has dropped off recently.

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Harris has just a 1.14 YPRR this season, which ranks RB31. So it’s understandable why the Steelers don’t want him to be the central focus of their passing game like he was in his Week 3 target explosion. Nevertheless, Harris still has an extremely valuable role, with no threats to his backfield touches. He’ll have to overcome poor offensive line play and mediocre-poor quarterback play, but he’s facing a middle-of-the-road Bengals defense and could deliver efficiently this week.

Bengals Implied Team Total: 24.25

Joe Burrow is playing excellent football, ranking ninth in EPA per play and sixth in CPOE. But the Bengals have shifted away from the pass over their last two games. This could be due to the Bengals simply taking advantage of good rushing matchups. Opponents are shifting 2% to the run against the Browns and 4% against the Raiders. The Bengals posted a -2% PROE in Week 9 and -3% PROE in Week 11, rates completely in line with them simply taking advantage of two run-funnel defenses.

This week they have a similar setup, facing a Steelers defense creating a 3% shift to the run. The Bengals aren’t likely to go ultra run-heavy, but odds are that they again tilt toward the run this week.

One issue with the Bengals going run-heavy is that they play slow. They rank 31st in situation-neutral seconds per play. That creates downside for game environments where the clock is running down quickly if left running between plays.

If the Bengals are willing to throw, they should find success. The Steelers rank 15th in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in coverage grade. They rank sixth in pass rush grade, but T.J. Watt may miss this game, which would significantly affect their ability to pressure Burrow.

The combination of poor coverage and a lack of pressure sounds like the perfect recipe for a Ja’Marr Chase spike week. Chase and Tyler Boyd play very different roles in the offense. Tyler Boyd is a classic underneath slot receiver. He’s played 89% of his snaps in the slot and has a shallow 7.1 aDOT. Chase is a true outside deep threat, with a 15.3 aDOT. The crazy thing is that despite that massive difference in target depth, Chase leads Boyd 22% to 19% in target rate and 25% to 20% in target share. As a result, Boyd has just a 16% air yard share, while Chase has a 45% air yard share... the highest in the NFL. Wide receivers like Chase are typically targeted infrequently. He operates with significantly higher target volume than Tyler Boyd and a deeper aDOT than Marquise Brown, yielding one of the most valuable roles in fantasy football.

Tee Higgins’ role isn’t that much less valuable than Chase’s. He has a classic No. 1 receiver aDOT of 11.3, and a strong 23% target rate. But he’s running very cold with a 7.4 YPT.

Higgins probably needs the Steelers to push the Bengals to access an actual ceiling this week. But this matchup provides upside for Higgins’ long-awaited breakout if Burrow has enough pass attempts.

If the Bengals prefer to lean on Joe Mixon this week, the Steelers’ defense won’t be a total pushover. The Steelers rank 22nd in EPA allowed per rush but have had a somewhat difficult rushing schedule, and they rank fourth in PFF’s run defense grades.

Mixon is coming off a season-high 30 carries and can undoubtedly have a big week if the Bengals feed him again. But his play hasn’t been particularly strong this season, ranking RB19 in success/attempt, RB26 in breakaway percentage, RB36 in elusive rating, and RB33 in YPRR. As a result, he’ll likely need to capitalize on goal line usage to generate a spike week unless the Bengals really have returned to their early-season run-heavy approach.

Falcons at Jaguars, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday

Falcons Implied Team Total: 21

Matt Ryan has struggled badly over the last two weeks. After lighting up New Orleans, he’s turned in back-to-back dumpster fire performances against the Cowboys and Patriots. These were Ryan’s worst games of the season. He still ranks a respectable 13th in EPA per play and 17th in CPOE. He has an excellent chance of getting back on track this week.

The Jaguars are terrible against the pass, ranking 31st in EPA allowed per dropback, 19th in pass rush grade, and 24th in coverage grade. Unsurprisingly, teams are shifting 2% to the pass against the Jaguars and are averaging a 2% PROE against them. Ryan has upside for both increased volume and efficiency in this matchup.

Kyle Pitts continues to operate as the Falcons’ clear WR1. He has tight end eligibility, which is great for fantasy, but he’s a wide receiver. Pitts has taken more snaps out-wide (144) than inline (131) this season, and the majority of his snaps have been out of the slot (198). As a rookie tight end operating as a wide receiver, Pitts has somehow been highly efficient this season. He has a 2.01 YPRR and a 9.5 YPT that is both good and sustainable at his 11.7 aDOT. Pitts is set up for a nice week if Ryan rebounds.

Cordarrelle Patterson looks likely to return this week and should provide a big boost to the Falcons’ backfield. Patterson is RB1 on the season in YPRR, with an elite 3.22. Christian McCaffrey is second with 2.98. Patterson slots back in as an RB2 this week.

Mike Davis has left a total of 28.7 points on the field this year, and he could now be facing a snap squeeze from Qadree Ollison. As a result, he’s a very thin RB2 option this week.

Jaguars Implied Team Total: 19

Trevor Lawrence showed some modest improvement against the 49ers. He wasn’t great by any means, ranking 15th in EPA per play and 20th in CPOE, but he wasn’t horrible, at least.

Lawrence’s play is still highly concerning; he ranks 29th in EPA per play and 32nd in CPOE. Only Trevor Siemian and Zach Wilson have been less accurate than Lawrence this season.

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The Jaguars are likely to attempt to hide Lawrence as much as possible this week. The Falcons’ aren’t a great pass defense. They rank just 25th in EPA allowed per dropback. But they’re also quite bad against the run, ranking 21st in EPA allowed per rush and 22nd in run defense grade.

The Jaguars prefer to run when possible. They have a -2% pass rate over expected and rank 28th in situation-neutral pass rate. Unlike some run-heavy teams, the Jaguars don’t play extremely slowly, so we should see decent play volume in this game even if the Jaguars take advantage of the rushing matchup.

Laviska Shenault played 50% of his snaps in the slot in Week 11, and with Jamal Agnew out for the season, he’s likely to see significant work in the slot once again. There’s no guarantee that he has a full-time role, however. Shenault ran a route on just 67% of dropbacks. Laquon Treadwell was at 63%. The Jaguars will play Treadwell and Tavon Austin for more combined snaps than Shenault this week, and I’m going to lose my mind. Book it.

Marvin Jones has run a route on 92% of dropbacks this season and 93% in Week 11. He’s locked in as the outside WR1, and his 18% target rate isn’t bad for his 13.0 aDOT. If you’re looking for a dart throw option here, he’s your best bet at wide receiver.

Dan Arnold didn’t record a target last week, but he ran a route on 83% of dropbacks. He has a 19% target rate with the Jaguars and still looks like a solid tight end option.

James Robinson has handled 92% of backfield attempts over the last two weeks but only 61% of snaps. After a 60%+ route rate in 3-of-4 weeks to start the season, he’s had route rates of 45% and 47% since returning from injury. He’s has a nice rushing matchup this week and has the ability to take advantage, ranking RB9 in success/attempt, RB16 in breakaway percentage, and RB10 in elusive rating. But Carlos Hyde‘s nearly 30% snaps share hurts his ceiling.

Chargers at Broncos, 4:05 PM Eastern, Sunday

Chargers Implied Team Total: 25.25

Justin Herbert‘s play has been up and down this season, but he has been extremely impressive when at his best and has been excellent in two of the last three weeks.

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Herbert ranks sixth in EPA per play this season, although his accuracy ranks 20th. He profiles similarly to Matthew Stafford.

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The Broncos have an exploitable pass defense that ranks 21st in EPA allowed per dropback, 29th in pass rush grade, and 20th in coverage grade. The Broncos have also had an extremely easy schedule. They’ve played the Jets, Jaguars, Steelers, and Giants, who all rank bottom 10 in EPA per dropback. The Broncos look like a bad defense on paper. They might be an awful defense.

If so, Justin Herbert could be in for another big game, which could mean spike weeks for Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Allen has established himself as the Chargers’ WR1, with a 28% target share to Williams’ 20%. Allen also leads 32% to 30% in air yard share despite an 8.6 aDOT to Williams’ 11.4. Allen tends to run more routes than Williams, which makes him more reliable. But Allen and Williams are tied with 2.0 YPRR. Both look like high-end options, and I still view Williams as the higher ceiling receiver.

Austin Ekeler is coming off a 4-TD explosion and could be in for another big week. Ekeler is RB11 in YPRR and is third on the team with a 15% target share. If Herbert can get going this week, Ekeler will be along for the ride.

The Broncos also have a middling rushing defense that ranks 23rd in EPA allowed per rush and 10th in run defense grade. Ekeler is second to only Jonathan Taylor this season in fantasy points over expected, so he facing a headwind on his efficiency. But he benefited from Herbert’s strong day against the Steelers by punching in the TDs, and this matchup sets up similarly.

Broncos Implied Team Total: 22.75

Like Herbert, Teddy Bridgewater dealt with a mid-season slump that he now appears to have pulled out of.

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Bridgewater ranks 14th in EPA per play and fourth in CPOE. He’s profiling very similarly to Mac Jones and allows the Broncos to deploy a run-heavy attack, with Bridgewater playing game-manager.

The Broncos’ approach is perfect for this matchup, given that the Chargers are the biggest run funnel in the league. Even better, the Chargers aren’t a shutdown pass defense. They rank a respectable but beatable 17th in EPA allowed per dropback. They’re a run funnel because they’re terrible against the run, ranking 30th in EPA allowed per rush and 24th in run defense grade.

When the Bridgewater drops back, he’ll likely be looking for Jerry Jeudy most often. Jeudy has an elite 27% target rate, and he has an elite 2.17 YPRR supported by his target profile. Jeudy has an 8.8 aDOT and plays 79% of his snaps from the slot, however. So this isn’t an ideal matchup for him, with passing volume likely to be limited.

Courtland Sutton can hit value more quickly with his ultra-deep 16.4 aDOT. Sutton has struggled to earn targets since Jeudy’s return, though. Since Week 8, he has target rates of 14%, 7%, and 8%. Keep in mind that Sutton is a deep threat. His targets are going to be inconsistent on a weekly basis. Jeudy is likely impacting him to a degree, but the effect probably looks bigger than it actually is, as some of Sutton’s target drought is likely due to simple variance. He’s in FLEX consideration here.

Noah Fant ran a route on 78% of dropbacks in Week 10, a strong rate for a tight end. He has a disappointing 1.38 YPRR, and passing volume could be low this week, but he’s in the low-end TE1 conversation.

If the Broncos didn’t spend the last two weeks installing Javonte Williams as their lead rusher, then what is even the point of bye weeks?

Williams ranks RB6 in success/attempt, RB1 in breakaway percentage, and RB2 in elusive rating. I mean... come on. The rookie deserves his shot.

Williams had a 57% snap rate in Week 10, which is a season-high, at least, but he needs a significant shift in role to unlock a ceiling. Now facing the Chargers, I’m willing to take a leap of faith that his role will increase this week. Even if he handles 65-70% of snaps, he could deliver an RB1 week as part of a run-heavy attack.

Rams at Packers, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday

Rams Implied Team Total: 24.5

Matthew Stafford hasn’t been particularly accurate this season, which is a concern. He ranks 21st in CPOE, just ahead of Baker Mayfield. This helps explain why Stafford has been so shaky over his last two games. But Stafford has still been hyper-efficient this year, ranking third in EPA per play. And the Rams are maximizing him, ranking seventh in pass rate over expected on 1st-and-10, fourth in PROE, and fourth in situation-neutral pass rate.

They now face a solid Packers defense that ranks 14th in EPA allowed per dropback, eighth in pass rush grade, and 14th in coverage grade.

We know that Stafford will be locked in with Cooper Kupp this week. He has an absurd 31% target rate and has been wildly efficient with a 3.06 YPRR.

Stafford’s connection with Odell Beckham will likely be a bigger factor in if he can overcome a somewhat tricky matchup. Beckham ran a route on 24% of dropbacks in Week 10 and will likely see a significant increase this week after using the bye week to help get up to speed in the new offense. However, I’m still skeptical that he’ll be a true full-time player. As I said on A Good Football Show, I would take the under on a 65% route rate this week. Even if I’m correct about his route rate, Beckham still has plenty of upside, as evidenced by his 27% target rate in Week 10. He can rack up targets in an Antonio Brown-style role

Van Jefferson ran a route on 96% of dropbacks in Week 10 and could see similar usage even if Beckham is a near full-time player. Bennett Skowronek had a 73% route rate in Week 10, so Beckham’s role has a ton of room to grow before he significantly impacts Jefferson. Jefferson has a weak 1.48 YPRR, which is in line with his target profile. He’s never fun to play, but he’s in the mix as a stacking option.

Tyler Higbee has a 1.04 YPRR that is also in line with his target profile... meaning, what you see is what you get. He’s a TD or bust option at this point.

Darrell Henderson split snaps with Sony Michel in Week 10, but Ben Gretch noted in Stealing Signals that this was due to a combination of the Rams’ huge loss to the 49ers and to Henderson being checked for a concussion. Henderson handled 75% of snaps heading into Week 10 and can still be counted on as a workhorse. If the Rams can get back on track here, he looks like a high-end RB2.

Packers Implied Team Total: 22.5

The Packers play notoriously slow. They rank 27th in situation-neutral pace and are snapping the ball with just 6.2 seconds left on the play clock, the lowest in the league.

It’s hard to understand why they play this way. Aaron Rodgers ranks fourth in EPA per play and fifth in CPOE. He’s not a game-manager either... he can take over football games.

As the Vikings showed last week, the Packers’ approach sets them up for heartbreak even when Rodgers plays lights out. Rodgers’ final throw of the game was a 75-yard TD pass, but they still lost as the Vikings bled the clock on their final possession and kicked a game-winning field goal.

The Rams will be a bigger challenge than the Vikings, but they should at least push the Packers from the outset. Not only do the Rams have a potent offense, they aggressively push the pace, ranking first in situation-neutral seconds per play.

Rodgers should be looking at increased volume, but he’ll have to be at his best to play efficiently this week. The Rams rank ninth in EPA allowed per dropback, third in pass rush grade, and 13th in coverage grade.

Increased passing volume would be great news for Davante Adams. Adams leads the NFL in WOPR, with a 34% target share and a 43% air yard share. Any time the Packers have additional dropbacks, he’s set up for a huge week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has benefitted from Allen Lazard‘s absence over the last two weeks, but Lazard is due back this week. Valdes-Scantling still has true deep threat ability with a 20.8 aDOT and a strong 16% target rate for his route depth. But he’s a thin option with Lazard likely to eat into his routes.

Aaron Jones looks like a game-time decision, so it’s unclear if we’ll get another week of AJ Dillon in a workhorse role. Dillon disappointed fantasy managers against the Vikings, but he played well and handled 73% of backfield touches while running a route on 49% of dropbacks. His role wasn’t truly elite, but it was close. It just happens that the Packers threw for TDs from 10, 18, 25, and 75 yards out. Dillon, and perhaps Jones, should have more TD equity this week.

Vikings at 49ers, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday

Vikings Implied Team Total: 22.75

I thought the Packers would give Kirk Cousins trouble, but he turned in an impressive week, ranking third in EPA per play and seventh in CPOE. In my defense, Cousins nearly had a disastrous week. He almost threw an interception on the Vikings game-winning drive, which was overturned on replay. He also had another interception wiped out by a defensive penalty and was strip-sacked to close the third quarter. Still, Cousins also made some incredible throws and played great when he wasn’t playing terribly. Fortunately, Cousins now get a 49ers defense ranked 29th in EPA allowed per dropback.

Justin Jefferson is playing consistently great football. He has an ultra-elite 2.53 YPRR with an elite 43% air yard share. The 49ers may limit play volume with a run-heavy script, but Jefferson has a huge ceiling every week.

Adam Thielen has a 1.60 YPRR and is a far less exciting option than Jefferson. He has a nice red zone role and is a crucial component of the Vikings offense, but he looks like a WR3.

Dalvin Cook has played at least 70% of snaps in every game this season, excluding when he left with an injury in Week 4. He’s been at 75%+ over the last three weeks. As I’ll get to, the 49ers are a lock to be run-heavy this week. This creates upside for Cook to be the engine of the Vikings’ attack, as two run-first head coaches run the ball to their hearts’ content, scowling all the while.

49ers Implied Team Total: 26.25

Jimmy Garoppolo ranks second in EPA per play this season and is amidst an extremely strong stretch of play.

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Garoppolo is likely to continue being efficient in Shanahan’s well-designed system. But he probably won’t attempt a ton of passes this week, as this matchup sets the 49ers up to attack on the ground. The Vikings have a solid pass defense that ranks sixth in EPA allowed per dropback, 16th in pass rush grade, and 15th in coverage grade. They’re much weaker against the run, ranking dead last in EPA allowed per rush and 19th in run defense grade. The Vikings have faced a difficult rushing schedule, and their EPA allowed is likely inflated. But the 49ers are still very likely to attack on the ground.

Jeff Wilson seems likely to get another week as the 49ers lead back with Elijah Mitchell still recovering from a finger injury. Wilson had a workload of 20.7 points in Week 11 but massively underperformed, leaving 13.9 points on the field.

If you saw Jimmy Garoppolo‘s missed TD throw, you know that the disappointing day wasn’t entirely on Wilson. Given the matchup, he’s set up for another valuable workload and should be able to deliver much more efficiently.

With Deebo Samuel likely back in a proper wide receiver role this week, things are suddenly very crowded in the 49ers passing game. Deebo Samuel is running insanely hot with a 12.1 YPT on just an 8.5 aDOT.

He’s facing a potential target squeeze and negative regression.... he’s still a great play. Samuel has been targeted on 27% of his routes and should maintain his status as the team’s clear top option, even if his lead in target share shrinks a bit. Despite Brandon Aiyuk coming on over the last four weeks, Samuel has a 3.20 YPRR over that span.

George Kittle has a 2.18 YPRR that is more in line with his target profile than Samuel’s. He ran a route on 84% of dropback in Week 10 and looks like an elite option this week, even with target competition ramping up.

Brandon Aiyuk could face a target squeeze with Samuel running wide receiver routes and Kittle healthy. He has a 1.28 YPRR that is in line with his underlying target profile. But his role over the last four weeks has been far more valuable. Aiyuk has a 2.15 YPRR since Week 8 and has a very strong 23% target rate.

The truth is that the 49ers are playing at a high enough level to support two wide receivers and a tight end... as long as they have sufficient passing attempts. If the 49ers can run the ball and control the game, there are paths to failure for all of their receivers, but things could get fun if the Vikings push the 49ers like they did the Packers last week.

Browns at Ravens, 8:20 PM Eastern, Sunday

Browns Implied Team Total: 21.75

The Browns are doing what they can to hide Baker Mayfield. They have a -5% pass rate over expected this season that ranks 29th in the league, and they rank 25th in situation-neutral pass rate. Mayfield hasn’t been a total disaster, but he hasn’t been good either, ranking 22nd in both EPA per play and CPOE.

This matchup is likely to push the Browns out of their shell. The Ravens’ offense is expected to be far, far more challenging to keep up with than the Lions were in Week 11. And, when attacking the Ravens, the easiest path is through the air. The Ravens rank 27th in EPA allowed per dropback and 23rd in coverage grade. They have a solid pass rush that ranks 13th in PFF’s grades, but it hasn’t been enough to make up for their coverage this season.

Mayfield could actually be productive here, though. The Ravens rank fourth in the NFL in blitz rate, and Mayfield has been great against the blitz this year, ranking seventh in YPA against the blitz.

Jarvis Landry is the only Browns’ wide receiver in the starting mix, and even he is pretty thin. Landry has just a 1.58 YPRR and has just a 69% route rate this season. His 21% target share is solid. But he has a 7.9 aDOT and just a 20% air yard share as a result. Nevertheless, he has a path to a nice day if the Ravens jump on the Browns from the outset and have them throwing throughout.

David Njoku continues to split snaps with Austin Hooper, even as Njoku has a 1.98 YPRR to Hooper’s 1.31. This isn’t a crazy week to throw a dart on Njoku, despite his frustrating usage.

Kareem Hunt is likely to return this week and will again form a committee with Nick Chubb. From Weeks 1-5, before injuries started to hit, Chubb played 52% of snaps with Hunt at 45%. And Chubb handled 60% of backfield attempts to Hunt’s 37%.

Hunt had a 15% target share from Weeks 1-5 and is heavily involved as a receiver in a way that Chubb or D’Ernest Johnson haven’t been. As a result, he should add an additional pass-catching element to the Browns backfield, which should help the offense. As long as he forms a two-way split with Chubb, he looks like an RB2 this week. But there’s risk that Johnson stays involved to an extent, making Hunt a weak option and making Chubb a mid-RB2.

Ravens Implied Team Total: 25.25

Lamar Jackson missed last week due to an illness. He returns this week to face a Browns defense that the metrics disagree on. By PFF’s grades, the Browns are a borderline elite pass defense. They rank fifth in pass rush grade and fourth in coverage grade. But they rank just 24th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Browns have played a middling schedule, but their opponents have seen a significant boost in their passing efficiency. So I’m inclined to fade the PFF grades here and am excited about the Ravens passing upside this week.

That passing game should include Marquise Brown, back from a thigh injury. Brown has an elite 2.11 YPRR this year while actually running a bit cold YPT. So not only is his production sustainable, but he also has more upside from here.

Mark Andrews has a very strong 1.98 YPRR and is being targeted on 22% of his routes, which is an elite rate for a tight end. He managed to soak up volume in Jackson’s absence, with a 23% target rate and a 28% target share. Andrews ran a route on 98% of dropbacks in Week 11, and it’s clear the Ravens understand that he is their WR2.

Rashod Bateman is a very strong third option for the Ravens, but he still has some work to do to eat into Andrews’ or Brown’s target share. He struggled in Week 11 with just a 4.1 YPT, but he did at least have a 19% target rate. Bateman has shown an excellent connection with Jackson and looks like a WR4 this week.

Latavius Murray returned last week but played behind Devonta Freeman. Freeman handled 58% of snaps and 59% of backfield attempts, with Murray at 37% and 37%. Freeman looks like a TD or bust RB2 here, facing a Browns defense ranked 11th in EPA allowed per rush and ninth in run defense grade.

Seahawks at Washington, 8:15 PM Eastern, Monday

Seahawks Implied Team Total: 23

Russell Wilson ranks 26th in EPA per play, between Daniel Jones and Jacoby Brissett. It’s disconcerting to see just how he’s bad he’s been, especially over the last two weeks.

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Wilson hasn’t lost his ability, though. He still ranks second in CPOE behind only Kyler Murray. And if he’s ever going to return to the highly efficient play we’re used to seeing from him, it would make sense for Wilson to do it here.

Washington is a lowly 28th in EPA allowed per dropback and 28th in coverage grade. They’re also tumbling down the pass rush rankings with Chase Young out for the season.

We know who we’re playing here... and both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have actually been hyper-efficient this season. Lockett has a 2.25 YPRR, and Metcalf has a 2.22 YPRR. Both are deep threats, and the offense would strongly benefit from a reliable underneath option. But there’s no excuse for this passing game to be a disaster with Wilson still hyper-accurate and with two elite deep threats. Metcalf and Lockett would be locked in elite WR1s in a better offense this week. As is, they look like WR2s.

Rashaad Penny suffered a hamstring injury in Week 11, so we should see Alex Collins in a clear early-down role with DeeJay Dallas mixing in for receiving downs. Collins handled 59% of backfield attempts in Week 11 and is at 60% since Week 8. Unfortunately, Collins isn’t very good. He ranks RB43 in success/attempt, RB43 in elusive rating, RB45 in breakaway percentage, and RB43 in YPRR. He’s a usage-based fill-in option.

Washington Implied Team Total: 24

Taylor Heinicke has started to play better recently. He had his third-best week against the Buccaneers and followed it up with his best game of the season against a Panthers’ defense that is among the best in the league.

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Heinicke ranks 17th in EPA per play and 10th in CPOE. He’s not exactly a revelation, but his play has been impressive recently in that it has not been bad.

He now gets a much easier matchup against a Seahawks defense ranked 16th in EPA allowed per dropback. And that ranking is likely inflated by their schedule. I noted last week that the Seahawks were actually quite vulnerable through the air:

“Seattle ranks 12th in EPA allowed per dropback, but they are a paper tiger. The Seahawks have played a schedule almost comically packed with run-heavy teams. The Titans (-6%), 49ers (-5%), Saints (-4%) and Vikings (-3%) are all bottom 10 in pass rate over expected. They’ve also played three balanced but inefficient passing offenses in the Colts, Steelers, and Jaguars. The Seahawks have played just two formidable pass-first offenses: the Rams and Packers. Teams are shifting 1% to the pass against the Seahawks, but given who they’ve played, they might as well be the Buccaneers.”

Seattle then allowed Colt McCoy to finish sixth in EPA per play against them. Heinicke should be able to play well here.

Terry McLaurin has a 1.97 YPRR and has upside for more if he and Heinkicke can strengthen their connection a bit. McLaurin’s 8.4 YPT isn’t terrible, but there’s some meat left on the bone, given his 13.5 aDOT. Given Washington’s newfound love of keep-away and Seattle’s undying love of all things suboptimal, we could see a slow game here. But there’s at least a chance that the game shoots out, with both offenses in good spots. McLaurin has a nice ceiling this week; the floor is scary.

Logan Thomas is expected back Monday night. We now know for a fact that the lead tight in Washington runs all the routes, after John Bates just ran a route on 85% of dropbacks. So Thomas will be back in his usual role and looks like a low-end TE1.

Antonio Gibson has regained his footing over the last two weeks with 68% of backfield attempts, and Washington has leaned on him to keep opposing offenses off the field. Unfortunately, it hasn’t all been good. Gibson has a 3% target share over his last two games and clearly isn’t a factor in the passing game. Gibson also hasn’t been great as a rusher, ranking RB23 in success/attempt, RB38 in elusive rating, and RB40 in breakaway percentage. It’s nice to see his workload trending back up, but he’s TD-dependent RB2.

Sources

To write this article I relied on the following stats, metrics and grades.

  • Implied Team Totals are calculated using the lines at PointsBet.
  • Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
    • Efficiency metric based on how much a play improved a team’s likelihood of scoring.
    • I use this metric primarily for QB efficiency, but also for defensive efficiency.
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected
    • QB accuracy metric
      • Data from rbsdm.com
        • All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
          • I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
  • Pass Rate over Expected
    • Measures passing decisions against what would be expected given the game situation.
  • Situation Neutral Pass Rate
    • Measures pass rate on downs and in situations when a team truly has the choice to pass or run.
  • Situation Neutral Seconds per Play
    • Seconds between plays in neutral game script.
    • Faster play generally means more plays, which provides more opportunity for fantasy scoring.
  • Adjusted Line Yards
  • Snaps and Snap Share
    • Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
      • Teams check in and out of runs with only one back on the field. Being on the field is critical.
      • Data from Pro Football Focus, AddMoreFunds and RotoViz
  • Target Share and Air Yard share
    • The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
      • Data from Pro Football Focus and RotoViz
  • Routes run per dropback
    • Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
      • Data from Pro Football Focus
  • Yards Per Route Run
    • A YPRR of 1.8+ is good and anything 2+ is very good.
    • This metric is particularly useful for young wide receivers whose role could grow as a result of strong play.
    • It can also help identify truly elite wide receivers.
    • It filters out in-game injuries and blowouts much better than target share does.
      • Data from PFF
  • Target per Route Run
    • TPRR and Yards per Target combine to make up YPRR.
    • TPRR is especially useful for tight ends.
      • Some offenses and quarterbacks prioritize throwing to the tight end much more than others.
      • Some tight ends are far better at getting open than others.
    • TPRR is much more stable than YPT, so in small samples especially, I’d rather know who is drawing targets than what happened afterward.
  • Expected Fantasy Points.
    • Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
      • I am referencing PFF’s metric unless otherwise stated.
  • A number of other PFF stats including Time to Throw, Play Action Rate, Pressure Rate, Screen Passes and Defensive Grades.