Toronto Maple Leafs Need Luck to Avoid Coin-Flip Playoff Matchup

The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a dominating win against the LA Kings.

In what might have been the Toronto Maple Leafs best game of the season, the team made short work of the Kings – not only did they beat them 6-2, but they almost doubled the Kings dangerous scoring chances, and scored 5 of their goals at 5v5.

In the NHL, 5v5 play is what separates the good teams from the bad.  Though there will always be anomalies and outliers, a team’s performance at even-strength is the most repeatable, and therefore the most predictive.

Though there are no guarantees with probability , the odds are that teams whose success is derived from success 5v5 will continue to be successful and teams whose success is derived from special teams are less likely to succeed in the future.

Furthermore, at 5v5, if a team is succeeding due to either a very high save or shooting percentage, those teams are likely to fall down to earth as well.

Of course none of this is guaranteed because an NHL season is only 82 games long and it has been said that you would need over 70 games before luck overtakes skill as the defining factor in victory. (all stats from naturalstattrick.com).

Toronto Maple Leafs Need Some Luck

If you think about it, this stuff is pretty obvious.  Anyone who’s ever watched hockey knows that the best team often loses due to the goalie of either team.  Every season we see players who are putting up sick numbers, but can’t seem to score (Nylander in his post contract year, the year Ovechkin  “only” scored 33 goals, last year’s Matt Duchene).

Even when talking about an all-time great (Ovechkin) it’s hard to look at a player who isn’t living up to expectations and say “oh he’s just getting unlucky.”  When Ovechkin had his off-year, I remember all the talk of decline.  He’s scored 50 goals or at a 50 goal rate in all five seasons since. Score one for the stats guys and girls.

This takes me to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are sixth last in 5v5 shooting percentage despite a) being a top shooting team over the last three years b) having four of the best 5v5 producers in the NHL on their roster.  This will go up, guaranteed.  (One good game took them from 31st to 26th.)

The Leafs are ranked seventh in 5v5 save percentage (which is why they’re winning so many low scoring games).  Jack Campbell cannot continue on at this level (because it would literally make him the second coming of D. Hasek) but as long as he stays decent, the Leafs shooting should make up for any regression on the goaltending side.

This is a good thing because the Toronto Maple Leafs can’t afford another first round exit, and the only way to ensure that doesn’t happen is to win the division because regardless of the team’s luck, roster, ability or determination, a playoff series against Tampa is – at best – a coin-flip.

Normally: who cares.  But given the implications of the first round and it’s importance for Toronto avoiding hiring the soon to be fired Jim Benning as their next GM, they’ve got to win the division and get themselves an easier matchup.

Today the Leafs would play Tampa if the season was over.  That is probably the least ideal situation possible, but the good news is that one of Toronto or Tampa is highly likely to usurp Florida at the top of the division.

For the Leafs, there is nothing to do but continue to destroy every team in their path and hope their rivals fall away.  The division title is an absolute necessity this year.