The Yankees are hot for Corey Seager. No wait, they’re showing more interest in Marcus Semien. Check that, Semien wants too much money, so signing Trevor Story short-term is the new best option. No, no, no, the Yankees may just spend big this offseason on Aaron Judge and bring in Andrelton Simmons as a 2022 stopgap shortstop until Derek Jeter-second coming Anthony Volpe and/or Oswald Peraza are big-league ready in 2023 or 2024.
Those are a few of the many Yankees rumors that have floated since the market opened after the World Series, and there probably will be a few doozies until the lockout shuts down baseball on Dec. 2. When that happens, be prepared for a fight between the union and owners that might be worse than the work stoppage that canceled the 1994 World Series and almost led to replacement players in 1995.
But there will be labor peace after this fast-approaching baseball war, and then we’ll get back to the fun of seeing what becomes of this great class of free agent shortstops — Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Seager, Semien and Story. Will the price go up post-lockout if luxury-tax penalties go down in the new CBA? Will the price drop if the lockout drags on until, say, February or March and spring training begins a week after the sides agree on something?
For sure, there will be no pre-lockout Black Friday sale.
Francisco Lindor got $341 million for 10 years last spring heading into his walk year, so Correa wants the same or more. The price tag on Seager is $300 million-plus. Baez, Story and Semien are seeking upwards of $200 million.
What’s realistic?
Bidding wars drives up prices, but in this case there figures to be just a dozen or so teams tops in play due to need and/or cost, maybe fewer.
Here’s the latest on all five with predictions:
CARLOS CORREA
2021 club: Houston Astros.
Age: 27 (28 on Sept. 22, 2022).
2021 hitting stats: .279 average, 555 AB, 104 runs, 155 hits, 34 doubles, 1 triple, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 0 SB, 75 BB, 116 K, .850 OPS, 148 games.
2021 fielding stats: .981 fielding percentage, 11 errors, 578 chances in 148 games at shortstop.
Awards: 2017 & 2021 All-Star Games; 2015 AL Rookie of the Year; 2021 AL Platinum Glove; 2021 Gold Glove.
2021 salary: $11.7 million.
Tops suitors: Tigers, Rangers.
Possible options: Astros, Twins, Yankees.
The skinny: This may be a two-team race with the Tigers viewed as favorites and the Rangers being as the best fallback option. The Tigers are moving from a rebuild and looking to add a big-money free agent, plus Correa to Detroit would reunite him with former Astros manager A.J. Hinch. The Tigers may pivot to cheaper options if the price doesn’t come down on Correa. Per MLB Network insider Jon Heyman in a tweet, “Tigers do love Carlos Correa, but have heard from Tigers people who insist they will not spend $300 million on any one player due to multiple needs. They are considering Baez and Semien (and possibly Story), who won’t command that figure.”
Prediction: Tigers, $304 million for 9 years.
* * *
COREY SEAGER
2021 club: Los Angeles Dodgers.
Age: 27 (28 on April 27, 2022).
2021 hitting stats: .306 average, 353 AB, 54 runs, 108 hits, 22 doubles, 3 triples, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS, 48 BB, 66 K, .915 OPS, 95 games.
2021 fielding stats: .975 fielding percentage, 8 errors, 314 chances in 92 games (90 starts) at shortstop.
Awards: 2016 & 2017 All-Star Games; 2016 & 2017 Silver Sluggers; 2016 NL Rookie of the Year; 2020 NLCS MVP; 2020 World Series MVP.
2021 salary: $13.75 million.
Top suitors: Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers.
Possible options: Astros, Cubs, Phillies.
The skinny: For the Yankees, it might come down to choosing between signing Seager or locking up Judge. Seager perhaps is the smarter play here because he’s younger, he’d balance the Yankees’ righty-heavy lineup as a left-handed hitter and he’s a slender shortstop who probably would make an easy transition to third base when Volpe or Peraza graduate in the farm system. If the Yankees can’t get Seager at their price or decide only to spend big on Judge, then they’ll probably look at stopgap shortstop options, perhaps Story for a year or two, or maybe light-hitting fielding whiz Andrelton Simmons.
Prediction: Yankees, $279 million for 9 years.
* * *
MARCUS SEMIEN
2021 club: Toronto Blue Jays.
Age: 31 (32 on Sept. 17, 2022).
2021 hitting stats: .265 average, 652 AB, 115 runs, 173 hits, 39 doubles, 2 triples, 45 HR, 102 RBI, 15 SB, 1 CS, 66 BB, 146 K, .873 OPS, 162 games.
2021 fielding stats: .984 fielding percentage, 1 error, 63 chances in 21 games (14 starts) at shortstop; .985 fielding percentage, 8 errors, 527 chances in 147 games (146 starts) at second base.
Awards: 2021 All-Star Game; 2021 Gold Glove (2B), 2021 Silver Slugger.
2021 salary: $18 million.
Top suitors: Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays.
Possible options: Mets, Tigers, Twins, Yankees.
The skinny: Semien bet on himself last year signing a one-year pact to play second base for the Blue Jays. Great decision. He won’t get the $200 million that he wants, but there’s nothing wrong with asking for the sun and moon and settling for the sun.
Prediction: Mariners, $144 million for 6 years.
* * *
TREVOR STORY
2021 club: Colorado Rockies.
Age: 29 (30 on Nov. 15, 2022).
2021 hitting stats: .251 average, 526 AB, 88 runs, 132 hits, 34 doubles, 5 triples, 24 HR, 75 RBI, 20 SB, 6 CS, 53 BB, 139 K, .801 OPS, 142 games.
2021 fielding stats: .975 fielding percentage, 14 errors, 552 chances in 138 games (138 starts) at shortstop.
Awards: 2018 & 2019 All-Star Games; 2018 & 2019 Silver Sluggers.
2021 salary: $17.5 million.
Top suitors: Astros, Rangers, Tigers
Possible options: Twins, Yankees.
The skinny: Story signing with the Rangers seems like a perfect fit because Texas has a lot of money to spend and he’s an Irving, Texas native who grew up 10 miles from Arlington. Story got tired of losing in Colorado and the Rangers were a 102-loss team last season that has a lot of holes, so he may be enticed to sign with a contender… maybe even the Yankees for a year or two at $25M per and then test the market again when he’s 30 or 31.
Prediction: Rangers, $180 million for 7 years.
* * *
JAVIER BAEZ
2021 clubs: Chicago Cubs, New York Mets.
Age: 28 (29 on Dec. 1, 2021).
2021 hitting stats: .265 average, 502 AB, 80 runs, 133 hits, 18 doubles, 2 triples, 31 HR, 87 RBI, 18 SB, 5 CS, 28 BB, 184 K, .813 OPS, 138 games.
2021 fielding stats: .954 fielding percentage, 18 errors, 392 chances in 88 games (86 starts) at shortstop; .968 fielding percentage, 4 errors, 126 chances in 35 games (32 starts) at second base.
Awards: 2018 & 2019 All-Star Games; 2018 Silver Slugger; 2020 NL Gold Glove (SS); 2016 NLCS MVP.
2021 salary: $11.65 million.
Top suitor: Mets.
Possible options: Astros, Mariners, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, Tigers, Twins.
The skinny: There’s a lot of buzz that the Mets will make a big push at re-signing Baez, but he’d be a better fit playing second base in that potent Blue Jays’ lineup if Semien signs elsewhere.
Prediction: Blue Jays, $150 million for 6 years.
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Randy Miller may be reached at rmiller@njadvancemedia.com.
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