Analytics with Alison: Making Key Saves at Key Times

Over the past two games, the Kraken have faced two of the NHL's top teams in Washington and Carolina. And while Seattle allowed two of their highest shot attempts against totals of their season (65 versus Washington; 68 against Carolina), the team found a way to win, powered in large part by their goaltender, Philipp Grubauer.

In two contests, Grubauer allowed just three goals against and posted two of his top three performances this year in terms of
goals saved above expectations
(plus-2.32 versus Carolina; plus-1.56 versus Washington). This was the kind of goaltending Kraken loyalists had been waiting to see.
"Same as timely goals, we need timely saves," Grubauer said Wednesday night. "Finally, I (made) those in the last two games. So, if we make some saves back there, the team has a chance to win."
Grubauer coming into form is a welcome sight for Kraken fans; so we thought we'd explore his post-game comments and see just how significant some of the saves were that caught our eye over these past two matchups.
Let's dig in.
Using Evolving-Hockey.com's play-by-play tool, we pulled every single shot attempt from the last two Kraken games and ranked them by shot quality (as measured by Expected Goals).
Of the 133 shot attempts Grubauer faced in the past two games, if we look at the top 50 most dangerous shots, only one of those got past him. That shot was the 31st most dangerous attempt and it came 3:34 into the first period of the game against the Capitals
when Tom Wilson scored the opening goal
.
For what it's worth, Alex Ovechkin's third period goal in the same game ranked 51st in terms of overall shot quality.
That means Grubauer stood tall against 49 of the 50 best shots he faced in the past 120 minutes of playing time. What were some of the most dangerous chances Grubauer turned away?
The top three chances include two from Hurricanes skater Nino Niederreiter, followed by a shot from Washington's Nic Dowd that came late in the game when the Capitals were playing with six skaters to Seattle's four and pushing for a goal. Let's take a look.

Tracking rebounds, defending in close. "Seeing the puck well," as Dave Hakstol said. Grubauer was dialed in. All in all, he turned away 3.88 goals that should have been scored against him, according to Evolving-Hockey.com.
Of course, there is still work to do. As with any position played in hockey, it takes more than 120 minutes to define a player's true performance. And when asked about what, if anything was changing in his play, Grubauer was first to credit the improved synergy with the defense in front of him, particularly when it came to blocking shots and closing off opponents' shooting lanes.
But it's worth noting that if we look at this season along with all of Grubauer's games last year, the last two Kraken games would rank second and sixth overall for the netminder in terms of saving goals above expectations. As numerous players, Grubauer included, said after Wednesday's win, "things are starting to come together" and look more as they were envisioned to be. Now, the challenge is there to keep this kind of play going.
"I think everybody is accepting their role," Grubauer said. "It takes everybody, every night, every shift, every situation, and if we do the right things, good things will happen."