Capped: First-Quarter Goalie Thoughts

Logan Doyle

2021-11-25

We're about a quarter of the way into the season. Yep, that's right, almost twenty-five percent of games have been played. I thought it was a good time to look at some of the goalies across the league and see how values have been affected through the first quarter. So, without further ado…

Jack Campbell – Toronto Maple Leafs $1.65M (UFA)

Last year he put up numbers comparable to Vezina finalists while playing in the Northern Division. Yes, that same division experts and pundits ripped for being the worst in the league defensively and responsible for artificially inflating point totals.  The thing that kept him out of any Vezina discussion was a lack of starts.   

Then we hit the playoffs and he  ends up with a better save percentage and goals against average than Carey Price in the first round. The Leafs lost so we gloss over that fact.  

This year, he just happens to lead the league in Goals Against Average, Save Percentage, and is second in Wins and Shutouts. Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl have mightily struggled at times in front of him, as has TJ Brodie. Yet, the Leafs find themselves with the third best goals against per game in the NHL. Yes, they're third! Campbell is for real.

One word sums up his first quarter – Vezina! At a fraction of the cost of Jacob Markstrom, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky, there simply is no better value goalie in the NHL this year, period.

Jacob Markstrom – Calgary Flames $6M (4 Years)

Everyone seems to be a benefactor of Darryl Sutter's system in Calgary, none more than Markstrom. Every third start he tosses a shut out and sits second just behind Campbell in Save Percentage and Goals Against Average.

In a league filled with five- and six-million-dollar goalies, Markstrom is standing ahead of them all.

There is sustainable value here. He won't run out 20 shutouts. but he should maintain solid stats across the board.  He's a plug and play for the year regardless of opponent.

John Gibson – Anaheim Ducks $6.4M (5 Years)

It feels like an eternity since we have been able to say Gibson is having a good year. The talent has never been the issue, neither has his performance. The team in front of Gibson over the years has been the issue. More than once Gibson stood on his head only to lose 1-0.

All of a sudden, the Ducks can score at will and Gibson is finding the win column. This is one team I am not ready to fully believe in yet. I'm expecting a second half drop in the standings. This will affect his win totals but he should continue to deliver strong goals against average and save percentage.

There are a lot of good things taking place on the Ducks. If you are a team looking toward next year, Gibson is a goalie to target. The Ducks are quickly improving. At age 28, he has a lot of gas left in the tank.

Cal Petersen – Los Angeles Kings $894K – $5M in 2022/23 (2 Years)

This has not been the start to the year Petersen or owners expected or wanted. With a 3.12 Goals Against and .889 Save Percentage he's lost starts to Jonathan Quick who, it just happens is making the most of the extra time. Quick's season has been the polar opposite of Petersen's, running a stellar 1.88 Goals Against and sparkling .939 Save Percentage.

With a three-year $5M contract kicking in next year the Kings believe Petersen can be their future. It just isn't as seamless as we would like. When people say, 'goalies are voodoo' – this is what they mean. You just never know what you are going to get one year to the next. Hell, one week to the next.

Do not give up on Petersen. If you remember, Roberto Luongo used to make jokes about his own horrible play in October, even suggesting his season started December first.

I would target Petersen for a second-half rebound. I wouldn't expect much more than a 50-50 split with Quick, if Quick continues his strong play though. Owning Petersen is a game in patience I'm afraid. That sucks for his owners as we had hoped to cash in on the last year of this cheap, cheap contract.

There is lots of time left, I do worry he's already forfeited starts to Quick the rest of the season due to a poor first quarter.

Frederik Andersen – Carolina Hurricanes $4.5M (1 Year)

 He battled through an injury-plagued season last year and was never healthy. His value plummeted and even signing with the cup contending Carolina Hurricanes left his value in the range of 'meh to 'bleh.'

Here we are two months into the season, and he leads the NHL in wins and is right there with Markstrom and Campbell in save percentage and goals against average. There are few goalies, namely his Toronto replacement, offering better value on the dollar than Andersen so far this year. I don't see his value wavering much over the next three quarters either.

If you were savvy to reach out and acquire him over the summer, you received a pretty nifty discount and landed a top-five goalie.

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Darcy Kuemper – Colorado Avalanche $3.5M (UFA)

This hasn't been the start Kuemper or the Avalanche expected. The transition from Phillip Grubauer to Kuemper hasn't been a smooth one. It's hard to believe Kuemper had better stats in Arizona than he has had in Colorado to date.

That said, I have three words for you – buy, buy, buy. The Colorado run is coming. Kuemper will round into form, Colorado will run to the top of the division and conference where we expected them to be.

By season end we will have forgotten all about his sluggish start and be talking about Kuemper as one of the better goalies to have owned this year.

Thatcher Demko – Vancouver Canucks $5M (4 Years)

Let me start by saying Demko has not played poorly.

The problem is the six defencemen in front of him. Well four, the other two are just being asked to do too much. When you have second pair defencemen playing top pair minutes and third pair defencemen playing second pair minutes it is going to leave the goalie exposed to lots of high danger chances.

I do expect his individual stats to improve from where they are currently, 3.05 Goals Against Average and .905 Save Percentage, but not by much. That defensive core is just too weak. When the games get more intense later in the year, I suspect high danger chances against will only increase.

I have a fear the Canucks may lay to waste first few years of Demko's prime.  I hate to say it, but with a looming Benning firing, the potential of a soft rebuild looms quietly in the background.  I'm not convinced Demko is a strong option for the rest of the year, or even next year. The Canucks are going to need time to right the ship.

I'll end with a couple honorable mentions.

Sergei Bobrovsky – Florida Panthers $10M (4 years)

This is as good as it can possibly get for Bobrovsky owners. He's an early Vezina favorite and top five in most statistical categories. Herein lies the issue with Bobrovsky, there are three or four other goalies with similar stat-lines with significantly lower cap hits. He is doing his owners a favor by providing max value. If you're looking for cap relief and an opportunity to move Bobrovsky's hefty contract – this is your window.

Robin Lehner – Vegas Golden Knights $5M (4 Years)

He's a direct reflection of the team to this point, underwhelming. A large part is due to the plethora of injuries, and significant ones, Jack Eichel excluded. We're going to need more time to determine whether Kelly McCrimmon made the right choice trading Marc-Andre Fleury for peanuts and keeping Lehner. When you look at this team on paper, you would never guess he would be leading the NHL in saves. Yet he is. He should see his numbers improve as the team gets healthy… should.

Mikko Koskinen – Edmonton Oilers $4.5M (UFA) 

Koskinen feels like the Oilers version of 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trent Dilfer. He does enough to win games. That's it. His numbers aren't the greatest, with a Goals Against Average of almost three and a save percentage of .910 he has been average at best.  Wins can disguise a lot of warts. At 41.7 percent, this is the worst quality start ratio of his career. If the Oiler's offence hits a dry spell those warts could become sores. The sooner Mike Smith returns the better.

That's a wrap for this week. Thanks for reading.

(all stats from frozentools.com & nhl.com; all salary cap info from capfriendly.com)

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