Former President Donald Trump would easily defeat President Joe Biden if the election were held again, according to recent polling that indicates the Republican could win with a substantial lead.
A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll conducted for the former president's Make America Great Again Committee showed Trump leading Biden in five swing states that the current president won in 2020.
Those states were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and make up a total of 73 Electoral College votes. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan were also key to Biden's victory in November.
That poll was conducted among 600 likely voters in each of the five states from November 11 to 16 and had a margin of error of four percent.
It found that Trump led Biden by 12 points in Michigan, 10 points in Wisconsin and six points in Pennsylvania.
Trump won those three states in 2016 by less than one percent in each case, securing him victory.
The former president also led Biden by eight percent in Arizona and three percent in Georgia—both states that Trump won in 2016 and that Biden successfully flipped last year.
Poll tracker FiveThirtyEight gives Fabrizio, Lee & Associates a B/C rating.
A separate Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted from November 22 to 23 showed Trump defeating Biden by a significant margin in a hypothetical match up.
The former president would win 45 percent to 32 percent if the poll's findings are borne out. Rasmussen also found that independents favor Trump over Biden by 47 percent to 20 percent.
In what may be another concerning statistic for Biden, Rasmussen found that only 69 percent of those who had voted for the president last year said they would do so again, while eight percent of Biden voters would switch to Trump.
By contrast, 83 percent of those who voted for Trump last time would support him again.
The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters and had a margin of error of three percent. Rasmussen enjoys a B rating from FiveThirtyEight.
A slew of recent polling has indicated that Biden will face an uphill struggle to win a second term, while his approval rating has remained stubbornly low for months.
An Emerson College poll conducted from November 3 to 4 found that Trump would defeat Biden with 45 percent to 43 percent in a potential 2024 rematch, while a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll released on Thursday found that just 39 percent of Americans would vote for Biden in the next presidential election.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll conducted from November 3 to 5 showed a similar result, with 64 percent of respondents saying they didn't want Biden to run for another term.
When it came to Trump, 58 percent said they didn't want him to run again.
FiveThirtyEight's tracker of Biden's approval, which uses a variety of polls and its own system of pollster ratings, showed the president had a 42.9 percent approval rating as of November 24, while disapproval stood at 51.8 percent.
As Biden's approval rating remains in negative territory and poll after poll shows Trump defeating him in 2024, the former president has teased a comeback with a potential announcement after the midterm elections.
Trump may feel encouraged by recent polls, particularly his apparent lead in swing states that are crucial to reaching the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Darragh Roche is a U.S. News Reporter based in Limerick, Ireland. His focus is reporting on U.S. politics. He has ... Read more
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