Betting Roundtable: Which Team Would You Bet to Win the Super Bowl?

It’s been difficult to predict NFL games this season. Underdogs are running rampant, upsetting some of the best teams. The Buccaneers, Chiefs, Titans, Cowboys, Packers and Rams all have inexplicable losses staining their resumes.

That said, let’s look ahead beyond Thanksgiving and Week 12, beyond the Wild Card round and all the way into mid-February and place our bets on which team will win the Super Bowl in this strange, strange season.

For how things have gone this year so far, seems easy enough, right?

Before we get to that: Here are each team’s odds to win it all from SI Sportsbook.

Check NFL Week 12 Lines at SI Sportsbook

Buccaneers (+550)
Chiefs (+650)
Cardinals (+800)
Rams (+900)
Bills (+900)
Packers (+1000)
Ravens (+1000)
Cowboys (+1000)
Titans (+1400)
Patriots (+1400)
Chargers (+1800)
Browns (+3300)
Colts (+3300)
Bengals (+3300)
49ers (+5000)
Eagles (+5000)

Vikings (+5000)
Saints (+6600)
Steelers (+8000)
Raiders (+10000)
Broncos (+10000)
Seahawks (+12500)
Panthers (+20000)
Dolphins (+25000)
Washington Football Team (+25000)
Jets (+50000)
Giants (+50000)
Bears (+50000)
Texans (+50000)
Jaguars (+50000)
Falcons (+50000)
Lions (+50000)

Let's put $20 on Atlanta to make a run, please!

Here's out staff's attempt to predict the future. You might be surprised at what teams you find or don’t find in our picks.

SI Betting's Matt Ehalt:

The Giants at +50000 seem like great value, but Daniel Jones throwing to defensive linemen scares me. I kid. I always target value, and I really like the Packers at +1000. Aaron Rodgers played nearly flawless football in the second half against Minnesota, and the Packers' defense isn't as bad as in years past. Green Bay can potentially claim the NFC's top seed, and perhaps this will truly be The Last Dance for Rodgers and Davante Adams. I still think the Buccaneers are the team to beat in the NFC (To quote Ric Flair: "To be the man, you got to beat the man") but I'd rather bet Green Bay at +1000 than Tampa Bay at +550.

BET: PACKERS +1000

SI Fantasy's Matt De Lima:

When Kyler Murray is healthy, this team is the class of the NFL. If Colt McCoy can win two out of three with this squad, then IT must be something special. I expect the Cardinals to secure a bye, and home advantage doesn't matter much anyway—the Cardinals are 6-0 on the road. Add the return of DeAndre Hopkins to the mix and this offense will continue to be a force. There's nothing stopping them from a Super Bowl trip except Tom Brady and the Bucs.

BEST BET: CARDINALS +800

SI Fantasy's Craig Ellenport:

In a season of true parity, there are eight teams currently between +550 and +1000 to win the Super Bowl. Considering the Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL right now, it’s ridiculous they’re not among those eight teams. So, I’ll take New England at +1400 to go all the way. This team is much like Bill Belichick’s first Super Bowl team: a young, unproven QB, a team with no superstars and a top-tier defense. I’ll roll with the Pats at that number.

BET: PATRIOTS +1400

SI Fantasy and Betting's Jen Piacenti:

I'm going bold. No, I am not from New England. I am taking the Patriots at +1400. I feel like I should take a shower now, because Lord knows I am not a Bill Belichick fan, but here are the facts. The Patriots are improving on both sides of the ball. New England has scored 31.3 points per game across the past three, while allowing only 4.3. That is not a typo. Mac Jones fits like a glove in this Josh McDaniel's offense. So much about winning is getting hot at the right time. Well, this team is hitting its stride when it matters most. They are leading the AFC East at 7-4, and the SI Sportsbook is giving us +1400? Yes, please.

BET: PATRIOTS +1400

SI Betting's Dave Scipione:

They aren’t playing that great, but it’s fine as long as they pick it up toward the end of the season and playoffs—give me the Bills at +900. I hate the AFC East and think Buffalo is the best team in that division. The Bills are making the playoffs, and the real question here is are they seasoned enough to make an actual run? This is the year, despite the recent run of poor play, that Buffalo makes—and wins—the Super Bowl. They can show up on both sides of the ball, and if they're going to play like garbage, at least it's happening in the middle of the season. I'll take them at +900 over all the other contenders.

BET: BILLS +900

MMQB'S Gary Gramling:

You missed the boat on the Chiefs, but there’s still some nice value on the board, starting with the Packers at +1000. Aaron Rodgers, yes, but also there’s a chance they’ll get their best two defenders (CB Jaire Alexander and edge Za’Darius Smith) back in December, giving them as good a team as they had at this time last year. The Patriots (+1400) profile very similarly to the 2018 team that won Super Bowl LIII—dominant defense, power running game, efficient quarterback. There’s a good chance Mac Jones doesn’t need to put up 30-plus points in a playoff game. Also, around this time last year the Bucs were sitting at 7–5; either the 49ers or Vikings (each +5000), or possibly both, will sneak into the NFC playoffs and profile as teams that could make some noise in January. For similar reasons, the Panthers (+20000) are the most interesting super-long shot, especially as they unveil a new (and improved) offense down the stretch. But my favorite Super Bowl bet right now is the Colts (+3300). They’ve won six of eight since getting their quarterback up to speed, and the two losses came in overtime (one when their kicker got hurt, the other in an atrociously officiated game). We know about Jonathan Taylor, the defense is quietly excellent, and a couple of spectacular lowlights have overshadowed the fact that Carson Wentz has been solid this year. I track a metric I call “luck-adjusted point differential,” which takes fumble-recovery rate, fourth-down efficiency, red-zone efficiency and opponent kicker accuracy and moves them toward the mean, which is what tends to happen over the course of the NFL season. Right now, the Colts rank second in luck-adjusted point differential, mostly because they were so bad in the offensive red zone early in the season (and with Taylor and that offensive line, if anything they profile as a strong red-zone offense). Indy put themselves in an early hole, but if you were to reset the season right now, the Colts would absolutely be the pick to win the AFC South and contend with anyone in that conference. (The Cowboys, by the way, are first in luck-adjusted point differential, but +1000 isn’t much value.)

BET: COLTS +3300

SI Fantasy and Betting's Kyle Wood:

The Packers are winning with Aaron Rodgers. They’re not winning entirely because of him. That’s an important distinction. The reigning MVP reserves the ability to go scorched earth on the rest of the NFL. He just hasn’t had to because of how well Green Bay’s defense has played. The Packers have three losses (an inexplicable Week 1 blowout against New Orleans, a one-score defeat to the Chiefs with Jordan Love behind center and a three-point loss to the Vikings on the road), but they also hold the tiebreaker over the top-seeded Cardinals thanks to win on a Thursday night even Davante Adams sidelined. The Packers have the 13th-easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.com. If they can capture the top seed in the conference, get the sole bye and force the Buccaneers, Rams, Cowboys or Cardinals to come through Green Bay to get to the Super Bowl, I like their chances to run the table in the postseason and beat whichever team the muddled AFC spits out.

BET: Packers +1000

Check the Latest Lines at SI Sportsbook

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