Sen. Kyrsten Sinema might be the best chance Democrats have of holding a critical Senate seat in 2024 — but a fresh poll suggests liberal voters in the Grand Canyon State do not care.
In a survey from Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights, dogged opposition to President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” social spending legislation, at least in its initial iterations, appears to have taken its toll on Sinema.
In a hypothetical 2024 primary matchup with Rep. Ruben Gallego, the incumbent Democratic senator trailed 47% to 24%. Sinema was losing to Rep. Greg Stanton and Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction by similarly wide margins.
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“Sinema’s holding out on the reconciliation bill caused a lot of political pressure from left wing of her party, and her numbers were beginning to sour because of it,” Mike Noble, the chief of research for OH Predictive Insights, said in a statement. “Sinema was walking a delicate tight rope with her constituents, and as we see in her numbers now, it appears that rope was looking more like fishing wire.”
The poll of registered Arizona voters, publicized this week, was conducted between Nov. 1 and Nov. 8 and had an error margin of 3.7 percentage points. The data contained more bad news for Sinema than just the possibility that she might struggle to win a Democratic primary that is, admittedly, more than two years away and could look much better for her by the time the 2024 election cycle gets underway.
Sinema’s image rating is now underwater, at 42% favorable and 45% unfavorable, although a plurality of Republicans (48%) hold positive feelings toward the senator. However, only 42% of Democrats view Sinema favorably, and when Democrats were asked whom they would prefer as their senator and given the choices of the incumbent, another generic Democrat, or a Republican, just 26% said they would prefer Sinema. Seventy-two percent preferred another Democrat.
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Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly’s favorable ratings are even worse than Sinema’s, with 41% of Arizona voters viewing him positively and 48% viewing him negatively.
However, Kelly’s favorable rating with Democrats is 75%. Kelly is up for reelection in 2022.
