Carson Wentz Stat Tracker: Week 11

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

NOTE: All references to rankings are of the 28 QBs that have played as of Sunday night.

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HOW WELL?

This game is probably a Rorschach test for a lot of fans. If you came into the game thinking Carson Wentz has been playing well, then you probably saw a good performance. If you think he’s been playing “meh”, then that is what you will walk away with. If you think he has been playing poorly, then you are probably an Eagles fan and should seek therapy.

Wentz only had 21 drop-backs and managed positive epa value on just 10 of them. That’s a 47.6% success rate and ranks 17th of QBs this week. However, when his plays were successful, they were high value and so he had the 7th best overall efficiency (0.38 epa/d).

Supporting the above numbers are a barely above average 1st down conversion rate and a barely below-average net yards per drop-back.

The dotted lines in all of the above graphs are the trailing 5-week rolling averages. He is right around average in all of those measures.

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HOW FAR?

He started out strong, completing 6 of the first 8 passes with 4 of them being 10+ yard attempts, but then it all kind of went south, as he finished 5 of 12 for a 55% completion rate.

That poor completion rate partially drove his unimpressive 5.3 yards per attempt (23rd).

His 6.2-yard depth of target was 9th shortest and his completions were shorter still (4.4 yards 21st of 28).

HIs season 7.0 yards per attempt comes in at 23rd (of 32), with the air yard portion of that ranking 26th.

He threw a passing TD, so I have updated this next chart. On average his TDs come from a little farther away from the end-zone than most of the league’s passing TD leaders. So, that’s good. I mean, he’s no Joe Burrow.

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TO WHO?

The leading receiver for yards and targets was Jack Doyle . . . a tight end. Need I say more?

In the next 2 charts, the upper right quadrants are where you want your wide receivers to be. That is where long, high-value completions are charted.

The chart on the right is season totals and it demonstrates this concept. The chart on the left is from today’s game and it demonstrates something else.

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HOW ACCURATE?

A 55% completion rate is almost never good and against the 20th longest passes it looks even worse. Wentz’s accuracy measured by cpoe was -13.7% making it the 2nd worst this week (thank god for Andy Dalton).

On the year, that drops Wentz’s accuracy to 28th. More fans than me should care about that.

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HOW FAST?

This was his quickest release game as a Colt at 2.53 seconds. This is completely in line with those short passes and helped control a Buffalo defense that prior to this game had brought the 8th most pressure against QBs.

Don’t under-value Wentz’s performance here.

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TO WHERE?

No deep passes this week, but between 10-20 yards, Wentz was pretty good.

On the year:

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DASHBOARD

Here is the comparison to the 27 other QBs that have played so far this week.

In a poor weather game, against the best passing defense in the league (#1 DVOA), the Colts were run-heavy (23rd ed%) and rightly so, as the run game was blowing it out (2nd wrsr). Wentz kept the passing game short (20th adot, 0% 20+ attempts). The receivers managed decent additional yards (9th yac, 15th yacoe), but poor accuracy (27th cpoe) limited yardage efficiency (24th ypa). Wentz’s quick release (23rd ttt) helped him avoid sacks (0% sck%) and so his net yardage efficiency was relatively better than his ypa (14th ny/d).

His TD rate and first down conversion rate was about league average (15th, 12th), but he didn’t turn the ball over (0% to%) which lifted his overall efficiency (7th epa/d).

On the year, his epa efficiency improves to 15th.

GLOSSARY

drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)

opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured

ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.

wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)

ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.

pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)

adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.

20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards

ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.

cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)

yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.

yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)

ypa: Yards per Attempt

aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.

ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs

scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs

sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs

to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs

ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)

1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs

td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs

rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone

orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone

20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards

psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0

epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.