With King Richard and Tick, Tick...Boom! now streaming at home (on HBO Max and Netflix, respectively), Will Smith’s and Andrew Garfield’s best-actor Oscar-hopeful performances are now available for all to see. But in an especially strong year for lead male performances, their competition isn’t far behind. Ahead, Rebecca Ford and David Canfield dig deep into the field, from A-listers showing new sides of their talent to up-and-comers looking for their first big break with Oscar.
Rebecca Ford: David, we’re focusing today’s conversation on what I think might be this year’s most cutthroat category: the lead-actor race. It’s a good problem to have, and I’d say the most fun for us, with so many great performances competing in one category. There are some very big names back in the race this year, along with some newcomers that I’d love to sneak in. But there’s only room for five nominees! So should we get into it? Where should we start?
David Canfield: He’s not necessarily the front-runner, but we quite literally just got out of Don’t Look Up as we write this, and I can’t get Leonardo DiCaprio’s blazing, wrenching, Howard Beale–esque “We’re all going to die” speech out of my head. I suspect this will be true for many Academy voters too. So I have to start there! The film, a very broad, then very dark satire imagining the end of the world, is one of many high-profile late-breakers complicating what had already felt like a pretty packed awards season. Of Don’t Look Up’s insane cast, DiCaprio feels the most ripe for recognition, if only because of how much he gets to do and how good he is doing it. Especially given his personal connection to the material, as a climate-crisis activist, it’s a performance brimming with righteous fury.
If he’s crashing a race we had somewhat formed in our minds, perhaps we should work backwards, then, to identify who’s still safe for a nom alongside him, before discussing some other potential spoilers. For a long time the conventional wisdom has been that Will Smith is the front-runner here, and you and I have stuck to that since Telluride. Has that changed for you?
Ford: I agree that DiCaprio has arrived to shake up the race, but yes, I think Smith is as safe a bet as can be made for one of those nomination slots. His performance as Richard Williams, the father of Venus and Serena, is layered with charm and depth and heart and all those other magical things that an actor like Smith can bring to it. And I think if there’s one other sure bet, it would be Benedict Cumberbatch for his performance in Jane Campion’s Power of the Dog. It’s such a complicated role and so different from the troubled, eccentric geniuses he’s known for playing. He’s gotten nothing but praise for his performance as this repressed, gritty cowboy, so I can’t imagine we don’t see him listed on nomination day.
And I would say my final pick for “extremely likely to be on the list” would be Andrew Garfield. Tick, Tick...Boom! screened a bit later for voters, but the reactions to his performance have been deafeningly positive. It’s also one of those performances that the Academy loves: a real person (Rent creator Jonathan Larson), a struggling artist, and based on a well-known musical. Plus, he sings and plays piano! David, we’ve already listed four actors, and we’re just getting started on this category. Whom do you consider possibilities to fight it out for the remaining spot or shake up this lineup?
Canfield: Garfield is another one who crashed that tenuous post-Telluride consensus with Tick, Tick...Boom!, and I agree that he’s just a tuck below those top two contenders, in a very good position. I was at a SAG screening for the film where he received a lengthy standing ovation, which felt like an omen of plaudits to come. I bring him up because I believe one contender whose positioning he might have particularly affected is Peter Dinklage. Can two bighearted musical turns find their way into this category? Honestly, it feels unlikely, and while Dinklage made a splash when Cyrano debuted to strong reactions in the Rockies, it’s a smaller movie less likely to be broadly admired, with a quiet late-December opening that will not work in its favor as the race takes shape. He remains one to keep an eye on—he’s beloved in this town and has never been nominated for an Oscar—but he’s at risk of fading from the conversation, if he hasn’t already.
Still more likely, if also in a similar kind of danger, is Denzel Washington. When The Tragedy of Macbeth premiered in New York, reactions indicated he’d be a slam dunk here. In the time since, two things have become clear: This is not a film the Academy will embrace wholeheartedly, and its experimental nature will prove challenging for general audiences. Washington is terrific, though, and we may be underestimating his standing. After all, this is the guy who got nominated for Roman J. Israel, Esq. just a few years ago. What say you about the two-time Oscar winner, Rebecca?
Ford: I agree we should never count Denzel out, and I do think actors probably especially enjoyed watching him perform Shakespeare so beautifully. If Macbeth slips into nominations anywhere, it feels like it would be here. However, Denzel is known for not doing much when it comes to promotion for his films, so it’ll be a challenge to make sure he stays in the conversation. Speaking of actors who don’t do a lot of press, we should mention Joaquin Phoenix here as well. C’mon C’mon played very well at the festivals in the fall, so I don’t think we can count him out—it would be his fifth nomination and is such a different performance from the last time he was nominated (and won), for Joker.
And I guess while I’m on the topic of actors who are pretty selective about promotional participation, I should bring up Bradley Cooper. Nightmare Alley has not been screened widely yet, but he’s definitely the lead in it and could be one to watch if the film plays well. Are there any other performances that you feel might break through in the coming months?
Canfield: Right there with you on Cooper, who, like DiCaprio, could again shatter whatever image we have of how this category is developing. There are a few other stars who could do similar damage if their films become overall contenders: Adam Driver is too understated in House of Gucci to make a run on his own, but a surge of popularity behind the bulky drama could welcome him into contention. And while Javier Bardem is secondary to Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos, early indications are that the film is playing great with their fellow actors (which never hurts). You’ve also got the adorable Jude Hill, going lead for Belfast; child actors rarely break through in lead categories, but he’s representing a best-picture front-runner and thus shouldn’t be counted out entirely.
On the other side of this are actors on their own—tour de force performances in projects that won’t get nominated elsewhere. Simon Rex has been working the trail very hard for A24’s Red Rocket, while Sony Pictures Classics is—as ever—playing the long game for Clifton Collins Jr., who got spectacular reviews out of Sundance for the small, moving Jockey. Anyone else on your radar who fits this bill, Rebecca—maybe an actor you hope gets more of a shot?
Ford: My number one long-shot choice is Mahershala Ali for Swan Song. This sci-fi-lite drama is being released by Apple, and I’m frustratingly not hearing much buzz for it. It’s Ali’s first lead role—and he plays two characters in it (a man and his clone). It would be great to see him get some accolades for such a demanding role. And I’d add Jonathan Majors to my dream list for his work in The Harder They Fall. That Netflix Western is sort of a big question mark in terms of where it lands as a contender, but his performance is leading man material and so fun to watch. Clearly, this category needs to open up to 10 nominees! What an embarrassment of riches. Whom would you pick for your dream addition to the list?
Canfield: Well, let me echo the sentiment on Ali, who really should be more firmly in the conversation as a two-time Oscar winner doing some career-best work here. The movie around him is flawed, certainly, but a great performance is a great performance.
My long-shot pick would be Amir Jadidi, the star of Asghar Farhadi’s A Hero. This incredibly complex film requires an actor who can deftly play many shades, and Jadidi pulls that off effortlessly; in this story of a man taking shortcuts in his path to redemption, he weaves between the modes of ego trip, protective father, family man, and desperate convict. It’s a marvel to watch; the journey he takes the audience on is so key to the film’s overall (powerful) impact. I’ll also mention Cooper Hoffman, whose charming work in Licorice Pizza affected me on several levels, from it being such a confident debut to his being the son of the late Philip Seymour Hoffman, who did much of his best work in Paul Thomas Anderson’s films. There’s a kind of spiritual continuity there that hit me hard.
Before we wrap, Rebecca, we didn’t fully get into who might challenge Will Smith for the gold. The King Richard star may be far out front, but as this year’s ceremony alone taught us, it’s never over until the envelope is opened on Oscar night. Who’s his biggest competition?
Ford: I still believe Smith has this in the bag, but if I had to pick, I’d say Benedict Cumberbatch, because I do think Power of the Dog is going to be a strong contender in lots of categories, with Netflix putting a ton of support behind it. The streaming studio has a lot of contenders this year, but it does seem like Power may be its number one. Who would you pick?
Canfield: I’m with you. Cumberbatch will also greatly appeal to the burgeoning European contingent of the Oscars. If there’s one precursor that can complicate things, after all, it’s BAFTA, which overlaps considerably in membership with the Academy and is proving more predictive by the year. Just ask Anthony Hopkins.
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