Only two weeks remain in the Champions League group stage and we’re looking to keep our hot streak going.
We’re eight-for-eight across the last two matchdays, going 4-0 on Matchday Four.
Side-wise on the last slate, we cashed in on the Juventus goal-line and received a nice payout on our four-team parlay consisting of Juve, Bayern Munich, Chelsea and Sporting.
But without further delay, here are my two best side bets for the Matchday Five slate. As always, odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Three-Team ML PARLAY: Man City/Ajax/Inter Milan (+223)
From my perspective, Manchester City are wildly underpriced at home against PSG.
And I’ll be honest - this first leg is mostly a fade of the French giants, who have been SO lucky in the group stage thus far.
As it stands, PSG are 10th on UCL goal differential, but 16th on expected goal differential. Furthermore, among the teams currently in the top-half of the xGDiff table, they are the only side with a positive GDiff and a negative xGDiff.
Finally, PSG are sixth-worst in shot-creating actions allowed and 11th-worst in goal-creating actions allowed, per fbref.com.
That should catch up with them against Man City, who won the xG battle in Paris and have yet to lose a match on xG this season.
Next up are Ajax, who travel to Turkey with a chance to win their group if they grab all three points against Besiktas. To me, this is simply a show-me spot for Besiktas, who carry the second-worst xGDiff in the Champions League into this match.
If the Turkish champions can do anything but lose against Ajax, who won the expected goal battle 3.0-0.5 in their reverse fixture, this parlay deserves to lose.
But, I’ll trust an Ajax side that has yet to lose a UCL match on expected goals and has only conceded 2.9 npxG through four matches to get the job done in Turkey.
Finally there’s Inter, who have been so good as of late in both the Champions League and Serie A.
Across their last six matches in all competitions, the Italian champions have only conceded more than 1.0 xGA once. Plus, Inter have won every UCL match on expected goals despite only winning two in reality.
Even though they’ve played three straight 0-0 draws against Shakhtar, Inter have been the better side in all three meetings. In those three meetings, Inter have won three straight by a combined xG margin of 4.5-1.7.
Back Inter to get all three points and give themselves a chance to win the group on the final matchday in Madrid.
Best Bet #2 - Atletico Madrid Goal-Line (-1) vs. AC Milan (+108)
I always try to lean against betting teams in must-win situations, but this is too good of a spot to pass up with Atleti.
Not only were Atletico dominant in the reverse fixture with AC Milan, but they’ve been generally trustworthy as a home side this season. On only one occasion this season - the first UCL matchday vs. Porto - have Atletico lost the xG battle at home in all competitions.
Additionally, their defense has seemingly found a rhythm at home. In their last six home matches in all competitions, they’ve allowed more than 1.0 xGA only once. Expand that out to their last eight home matches and you’ll find they’ve only conceded more than that number twice, per fbref.com.
Against an AC Milan side that ranks dead last in shot-creating actions and are sixth-worst in goal-creating actions, I would be surprised if they can break through more than once in Madrid. Plus, it’s worth noting the Rossoneri have lost six of their last eight road European matches on expected goals, including both road UCL matches this season, per fbref.com.
Atletico, on the other hand, have won six of their last eight and eight of their last 11 home UCL group stage matches on expected goals, again per fbref.com.
Finally, even though I’m not certain Atletico can win by multiple goals Wednesday, the stats show they’re a good bet to at least win the game. Their Matchday Three loss to Liverpool was only their second home loss in the last 31 games (22W-7D).
Given all those trends, I have no choice but to back Atletico, who desperately need three points to give themselves a chance to reach the knockout rounds.
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