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A stunning 58 percent of voters in Arizona say they don’t want former President Donald Trump to run for reelection in 2024 — including more than a third of Republicans in the state.
President Joe Biden defeated Trump in the state by a narrow but conclusive margin of less than a percentage point — a victory that has been confirmed by the pro-Trump “audit” that actually added to the margin.
But just over a year later, a very large majority of the state’s voters don’t even want him to run next time. OH Predictive Insights’ Arizona Public Opinion Pulse poll, released earlier this week, included sobering news all around.
Respondents were asked “Should Donald Trump run for President in 2024?”
Among all respondents, 58 percent responded either “Probably Not” (47%) or “Definitely Not” (11%).
Only 31 percent responded “Definitely Yes” (20%) or “Probably Yes” (11%).
Among independents, those totals were within a point or two of the overall number, while Democrats overwhelmingly (87 percent)
OH Predictive Insights
But even among Republicans, a sizeable 34 percent should either “Probably Not” (17%) or “Definitely Not” (17%) run again in 2024.
In the same poll, Republican primary voters still chose Trump over the rest of the field by a wide margin, but at 48 percent support, failed to gain a majority of support.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is far and away Trump’s closest challenger — at just 16 percent. That means that establishment Republicans face the same problem they did in 2016: the possibility that no candidate can coalesce the non-Trump vote.
That same dynamic has shown up in poll after poll: Trump retains a sizeable lead on all of his challengers, while simultaneously experiencing a significant drop in support within the party. And DeSantis remains the only candidate thus far to have gained any traction against Trump.
It’s very early to be gaming out the 2024 election, but so far, the signs point to a dilemma for Republicans.