The Indianapolis Colts (5-5) have a crucial game on tap in Week 11 as they visit the Buffalo Bills (6-3) on Sunday at Highmark Stadium.

As the AFC playoff picture comes into form, the Colts will need to find a way to get the upset on the road. Vegas views the Colts as underdogs by more than touchdown while the experts across the league share the view of the Bills coming out with a win.

Here’s how the Colts Wire staff sees this game shaking out:

Kevin Hickey (@KevinHickey11): Bills 24, Colts 21

This game could go either way and I believe it will be closer than the spread suggests. That said, it’s going to be tough for the Colts to march into western New York and take a victory from the leaders in the AFC East.

The Colts will look to rely on the scorching Jonathan Taylor, who looks to make history on Sunday, against a Bills defense allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry mark (3.8). Meanwhile, we’ve seen Carson Wentz play erratically when forced to deal with pressure. The Bills have the highest pressure rate in the NFL at 30.6% (PFR).

It isn’t impossible for the Colts to pull off the upset but they’ll need Kwity Paye and DeForest Buckner to run wild against an average-at-best offensive line that just lost right tackle Spencer Brown to the COVID-19 list. The safety position may be in trouble given the propensity of Josh Allen’s deep ball.

The bottom line comes down to the fact that the Colts defense, along with the play of Wentz, has been far too erratic this season to rely on. The Colts have yet to beat a team with a record above .500 so until they prove they can do that, it’s hard to count them in for an upset like this.

Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL): Colts 24, Bills 21

The Indianapolis Colts are looking to make a statement to the rest of the AFC on Sunday. It’s going to be a tough slate to get things going out of the gates for the offense. Carson Wentz and company work out the kinks against the stingy Buffalo Bills defense in the first couple of quarters.

Then Jonathan Taylor finds a crease to help make an explosive play to give life to the Colts. It opens up the offense and they start to put together scoring drives. The defense has an up-and-down day, Josh Allen has a few scoring drives where he moves the ball with ease against Indianapolis. I expect to come down to the fourth quarter and who can make a timely turnover. Kenny Moore makes up for his dropped interception from last week and jumps a route to pick off Allen.

The Colts follow it up a go-ahead touchdown to take the 24-21 lead. Indy gets the upset on the road.

John Alfieri (@alfierijohn): Colts 27, Bills 21

In a rematch of last year’s AFC wild-card matchup, the Colts will travel to Orchard Park to take on the Bills. Coming off two straight wins, Jonathan Taylor has the Colts offense flying high as they face one of their toughest tests of the year.

Josh Allen is the player to stop if you want to beat the Bills. His unique combination of size and speed makes him a constant threat in the run game, and his arm strength speaks for itself. Still, with multiple starting linemen out for the Bills, he should be uncomfortable for most of the afternoon.

Expect Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines to have big performances on Sunday. The Bills have struggled against the run this year and Indy runs the ball better than any team in the league as of late.

This game will be a tough, gritty, hard-fought battle in the rain. Ultimately the Colts will emerge victoriously and will keep their season alive against one of the AFC’s best.

Nick Melillo (@CircleCity21): Colts 17, Bills 14

This game will go a long way for two teams struggling to find an Identity. The Bills were a super bowl favorite before the season, and the Colts heavily favored for the playoffs. Both teams have had a roller-coaster season thus far with many ups and downs. This game could be a good indicator of which of these teams is a contender, and which is a pretender. With two solid defensive units, I expect a low-scoring contest. The win will go to whoever grits out the ugly yards on offense, and makes the big play. I’ll bet on the hot-handed Taylor to come up big rushing the ball to give Indianapolis the close upset.

Standings

1. John (8-2)
2. Kevin (7-3)
3. Cody (7-3)
4. Nick (5-5)