Earlier this month, authorities at Mogadishu’s international airport seized six disassembled drones. Turkish pressure forced Somali authorities to release the Turkish engineers who accompanied the shipment. Those engineers said the drones were for agricultural purposes.
This seems unlikely. First, the drones cost $780,000, far out of range of any Somali farmer. Second, the Turkish export licenses show the drones have a 3-4-hour flight endurance and payload capacity that suggests a military rather than agricultural role.
Nor is it coincidental that Turkey has helped build a sprawling drone base manned by both Turkish and Somali intelligence operatives adjacent to Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency, an organization that supports rather than stymies Somalia’s most radical terrorist groups. As Turkey’s assistance grows not only for Somali terrorist groups but also for Ethiopia’s genocidal regime and Sudanese Islamists, the Turkish drone base in Mogadishu poses a challenge to stability and security within the region. Inside Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan, those struggling for democracy and a more moderate, tolerant future increasingly find themselves both outgunned by their enemies and ignored by the West.
The Somalia drone base is not alone. Earlier this year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey had built a drone base on land seized during its 1974 invasion of Cyprus. “Turkey is not 780,000 square kilometers for us; Turkey is everywhere for us,” he said. The base at Lefkoniko Airport, or Gecitkale Air Base, as Erdogan rebranded it, extends the operational range of Turkey’s drone fleet to threaten Israel, Egypt, and the Suez Canal, and shipping in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Nor is Turkey the only problem. Iran has both used its drones to strike at Saudi Arabia and exported the means to manufacture them to Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl-e Al Haq, and the Houthis. These groups have effectively transformed pockets of Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen into Iranian drone bases. Pakistani drones now also threaten India.
The White House should not shrug off attacks that fail to kill Americans: Drones will only grow more accurate and capable with time and trial. The United States should undertake a multipronged strategy in response.
Congress should guarantee that U.S. allies threatened by Turkish, Iranian, or Pakistani drones have a qualitative military edge in both drones and counterdrone defense. Turkey bases drones in occupied northern Cyprus? Then the Pentagon should provide Cyprus or Greece drones that can strike deep into Turkey. The Turkish military provides drones to an increasingly unstable Somali government? Then it is time to provide drones to Kenya and Somaliland to counter the threat even if, in the latter case, it requires American specialists. Iran and Turkey provide Ethiopia with drones to use against its own people? Then, at a minimum, the U.S. should provide the Tigrayans with the ability to detect and shoot down those drones. The same need to provide defenses holds true for the Armenians, Emiratis, and Saudis. India, too, should be guaranteed a qualitative military edge in drones as Pakistan and perhaps even Turkey transfers drones to terrorists in Kashmir.
Israel is a trickier issue, as it is not only a potential victim but also a proliferation problem: The Biden administration should bring financial and diplomatic pressure to bear to end Israel’s drone sales to Ethiopia and Azerbaijan.
For the U.S. to remain passive in the face of a growing threat, however, is an abrogation of both leadership and responsibility. Allying with America should be a path to security, not a liability.
Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
