Milwaukee Bucks: Can Grayson Allen be a dark horse MIP candidate?

Many had high hopes for Grayson Allen upon the announcement that he had been acquired by the Milwaukee Bucks in the offseason. He was coming off of a couple of solid seasons with the Memphis Grizzlies and he was seen as someone who could step in and impact the roster immediately and not simply be a fill-in for Donte DiVincenzo.

Oh my, goodness has he blown those expectations out of the water so far. Even the most optimistic view had him as someone who would supplant DiVincenzo in the starting lineup to give the Bucks better spacing, but he has shown to be much more than simply a floor spacer.

He has taken a big step forward from what he was doing with the Grizzlies, a team that simply discarded him for a couple of second-round picks. At the time of the trade, I said that he would be a nice substitute for DiVincenzo but wouldn’t be the long-term starter at the position for the Milwaukee Bucks.

I am gladly willing to say I was wrong on this and that Allen has shown more than I initially expected. Those expectations, though, were based on what he did with the Grizzlies, where we didn’t get to see his full game blossom as it has so far this season.

Grayson Allen is making an early dark horse Most Improved Player case for the Milwaukee Bucks

The most obvious example for Allen’s case as one of the most improved players this season is his scoring. Last season, Allen averaged 15.2 points per 36 minutes. He is averaging 15.3 points per game this season period (and 18.4 per 36 minutes). Part of that is the opportunity that he’s been given with the Bucks missing multiple starters for so many games this season, but opportunity doesn’t always lead to positive results.

One of the most impressive things that Allen has been able to do is find early chemistry with Giannis Antetokounmpo. They have built a very impressive two-man game that allows Allen to get more touches but also unlocks more space for Antetokounmpo. According to NBA.com/stats, the reigning Finals MVP has assisted on 18 of Allen’s makes this season, showing that early chemistry.

Take this dribble handoff play against the New York Knicks, for example. Because of how dangerous Allen is as a shooter, he causes panic for the defense if left open. The problem is that the defense also has to focus on Antetokounmpo. So Julius Randle has to drop back against that handoff play and concede the open shot because Allen is good enough to put the ball on the floor and take it to the rim or hit Giannis with a pocket pass.

This early chemistry has, in part, helped Allen’s scoring numbers as he gets a lot of open looks from Antetokounmpo. But as we saw in the game against the Boston Celtics, Allen can do more than simply spot up and move around for open shots. He has a diverse offensive skill set that he won’t get to show as much once the Bucks are healthy, but it’s nice to have a player like this in your back pocket if one of your stars’ shots aren’t falling.

Back to what I said earlier about more opportunities not always leading to positive results. A lot of players who see their scoring averages increase due to a rise in their usage typically see their efficiency numbers fall off in the process.

The opposite has been true for Allen to this point. He has seen his usage increase by around three percent and is getting close to a 20 percent usage rate. Not only have Allen’s efficiency numbers not dropped off, but they’ve gotten better.

In his two seasons with the Grizzlies, Allen has a true shooting percentage near 60 percent. Through 15 games with the Bucks, Allen is right around 64 percent true shooting. His increased usage rate has also come with a reduction in his turnover rate as well. I thought he was a competent ball-handler coming in, but he has proven to be a lot better in that area than he showed with Memphis.

Even on the defensive end, he is proving he can more than hold his own in tough matchups and teams don’t go out of their way to hunt him on switches, which means even more with the Bucks missing a few of their better perimeter defenders in Khris Middleton and Donte DiVincenzo.

Allen has never had a positive box plus/minus season in his three years before coming to the Bucks. It’s still early, but he is at plus-2.3 in BPM in the early going. He is averaging 0.161 win shares per 48 minutes, which puts him well ahead of his 0.101 WS/48 last season.

Allen is passing the eye test and the statistics are there to back it up as well. He has made great strides in a couple of significant areas of his game (primarily ball-handling, scoring versatility, and on defense) and has proven well worth the contract extension that was seen as a gamble for a player that hadn’t played a regular-season game with the team yet.

We said that Jon Horst had struck gold in acquiring Allen, but I don’t even know if he could have expected him to be an early Most Improved Player dark horse.

Allen has proven to be a valuable member of the starting lineup for the Milwaukee Bucks and his importance will only grow once the playoffs begin.