Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones: What scouts see in the rookie QBs so far

By Rob Rang
FOX Sports NFL Draft Analyst

The NFL Draft is always an exercise in educated guessing, but for a variety of reasons, the 2021 version was widely regarded as the most unpredictable since the league adopted a 32-team format back in 2002.

One of the few "guarantees" going in, however, was that Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence would — and should — be the No. 1 overall selection.

Meanwhile, there was plenty of debate about whether Mac Jones deserved first-round consideration at all.

Oh, how the first half of their first season in the NFL has flipped the script.

Lawrence, billed as the savior for the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars, has thrown just eight touchdowns (against nine interceptions) in his first nine NFL starts — only two of which his team has won. Three of those TDs came in a Week 1 loss to a Houston Texans squad now sitting at 1-8.

Lawrence has not thrown for more than one touchdown in any game since.

Jones, on the other hand, has not so quietly starred for the New England Patriots. Heading into a Thursday night matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (8:20 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app), the Pats have won four in a row and hold the top wild-card spot in the AFC at 6-4.

The fifth quarterback selected last spring, Jones is completing a staggering 69.03% of his passes, putting him on pace to shatter the NFL rookie record, a mark currently held by Dak Prescott, who completed 67.76% for the 2016 Dallas Cowboys.

Jones’ completion percentage is all the more impressive given that he is attempting longer passes than most of his rookie peers. Only San Francisco’s Trey Lance, who has played in four contests and started just one, has a higher yards-per-attempt among rookie passers (7.4).

At 7.2 yards per attempt, Jones is topping more than just rookie QBs. He ranks ahead of former NFL MVPs Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan (both of whom check in at 7.1), as well as former first-round picks Carson Wentz (7.1), Daniel Jones (7.0), Ben Roethlisberger (6.6) and Jared Goff (6.3) and his Alabama predecessor, Tua Tagovailoa (7.0).

Completion percentage and yards-per-attempt are hardly Jones’ only impressive numbers. He also leads all NFL rookie passers in touchdowns (13) and passing yards (2,333) while throwing seven interceptions in 10 games.

And with all due respect to former undrafted free agents Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers — New England’s most productive pass-catchers so far in 2021 — it isn’t as if Jones is surrounded by elite receiving talent, like he was at Alabama.

Given all of that, I took a closer look at the tape and asked a few scouting buddies for their unfiltered, unbiased takes on what exactly is going on with Lawrence and Jones, peeling back the curtain on the two talented rookies.

The savior vs. the system

"It really isn’t fair to compare the two," one longtime NFL scout said. "Lawrence was drafted to be the savior, and Jacksonville hasn’t put much around him. Give him a little time, and he is going to be fine."

Regarding the Patriots QB, the scout said: "Jones may not have as big of names catching his passes, but he was inserted into a well-oiled machine. I hate to admit it, but the ‘Patriot Way’ is real with how they call plays, block, run and play defense to support the quarterback. [Jones] was put into a system, and he hasn’t been asked to win as much as manage. That is his game, and he is very good at it."

Comments such as these were echoed by several others. But, frankly, I don't think they give Jones enough credit for how well he has played — and that dates back to the scouting process while he guided the Tide to a national title.

While the Cleveland Browns were no doubt limited on offense without Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt (and even, perhaps, the released Odell Beckham Jr.), Jones shredded a very talented defense in Week 10, completing a sparkling 19 of 23 passes with a career-high three touchdowns (against no interceptions) in a 45-7 blowout.

What's more, it isn’t just the pinpoint accuracy that Jones has demonstrated in several games already this season. It is also his poise and subtle movement in the pocket. On this snap, for example, he does a terrific job of making the kind of difficult throw that can earn the trust of teammates.

"One of the things Jones showed at Alabama was terrific recognition and good placement on the deep ball," another scout said. "He has been even better with his reads so far with the Patriots.

"Give the kid and the coaches in New England credit. He’s been very impressive."

This point was recently highlighted by Greg Cosell, one of the best in the business.

While Jones has starred, Lawrence has struggled — though not quite as much as some suggest, at least according to the tape and the scouts I talked to.

"The media hyped [Lawrence] up so much," one scout said. "Look up how John Elway did in his rookie season. [Lawrence] is making some big-time plays, but he isn’t doing it as often as he did when surrounded by all that talent at Clemson.

"There was a really cool throw against Seattle," the scout continued. "He whipped the ball on a deep third-and-long for what should’ve been one of the prettier plays of the whole season. Instead, [Marvin Jones Jr.] dropped it. Quick release, zipped the ball, great ball placement and a drop.

"He can’t throw and catch the damn ball."

Here is a clip of a different pass from Lawrence against Seattle — one that went for a touchdown amid a strong rush — that shows the quarterback’s upside.

Unfortunately for Lawrence and the Jaguars, clips such as the one below have been more common so far this season.

At 6-foot-6, 213 pounds with both the arm and legs NFL teams look for in a modern-day quarterback, Lawrence remains a wonderful talent. He can make the kind of jaw-dropping plays few other quarterbacks in the league can. But there is no denying his struggles. Lawrence currently ranks second in the NFL (to Carolina’s Sam Darnold) with 13 turnovers (nine interceptions, four fumbles lost) through nine games.

Although his Jaguars pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the 2021 season with a Week 9 victory at home over the Buffalo Bills, Lawrence wasn’t exactly dynamic in the victory, completing just 15 of 26 passes for 118 yards. He did not throw or run for a touchdown in the 9-6 win. He failed to do so again while fumbling twice last week in a 23-17 loss to the Colts.

"The concern I would have with Lawrence is that he already looks like he is losing confidence," a rival AFC South scout said. "Nothing looks easy for him. The quick, rhythm throws that he made at Clemson just aren’t happening right now. I think the coaches in Jacksonville are better than what some are saying, but it needs to start clicking, or the pressure is only going to increase on all of them."

Just more than halfway through the season, it is pretty obvious that Jones has outplayed Lawrence and the rest of the 2021 class of rookie quarterbacks. 

Few anticipated that when they were selected in the first round back in April — which is why no one should think this rookie race is anywhere near over.

Still, if a do-over were allowed, it might be worth asking the question: Did the Jaguars (and 13 other NFL teams) make a mistake in allowing Mac Jones to slip to the Patriots?

Just maybe.

One of the most recognized names in the industry, Rob Rang has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 20 years, with work at FOX, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others.