Week 11 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday with the New England Patriots visiting the Atlanta Falcons.
The Patriots are 6-4 and riding a four-game winnings streak, while the Falcons (4-5) are looking to bounce back after a 40-point loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh (34-23-1, 1-5 last week), Doug Kezirian (12-19-2, 0-1), Tyler Fulghum (8-20, 0-1) and Anita Marks (165-146, 13-24), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (21-17-1, 1-3), Stats & Information's Seth Walder 41-39 (3-2), Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (34-24, 1-4) and fantasy/betting analyst Eric Moody (79-60, 6-7) have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (as of Wednesday).
New England Patriots (-7, 47.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Fortenbaugh: The look-ahead line for this game was Patriots -4, which was quickly adjusted following New England's 45-7 blowout win over Cleveland and Atlanta's 43-3 humiliation suffered at Dallas. I believe the current price of Patriots -7 is a bit of an overadjustment, so I see a modicum of value in backing the home 'dog. Not only are underdogs 6-4 ATS on Thursday Night Football this season, but through 10 Thursday contests, the average margin of victory has been just 6.9 points. Home-field advantage on a short week coming off an embarrassing performance is enough to get me on the 'dog at +7 or better.