2021 Roster Review: Cincinnati Reds

83-79 (3rd in Division; 14th in MLB)

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SP Wins: 55 (8th)

RP Wins: 28 (27th)

Saves: 41 (14th)

1+ Save: 10 (Heath Hembree, Mychal Givens 8, Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims 7, Michael Lorenzen 4, Tejay Antone 3, Sean Doolittle, Brad Brach, Josh Osich, Michael Feliz 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Tyler Mahle 210, Luis Castillo 192, Sonny Gray 155, Wade Miley 125)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 7 (Nick Castellanos .309, Jesse Winker .305, Tyler Stephenson .286, Tyler Naquin .270, Jonathan India .269, Joey Votto .266, Kyle Farmer .263)

65+ Runs: 5 (India 98, Castellanos 95, Winker 77, Votto 73, Eugenio Suárez 71)

65+ RBI: 6 (Castellanos 100, Votto 99, Suárez 79, Winker 71, Naquin 70, India 69)

10+ HRs: 9 (Votto 36, Castellanos 34, Suárez 31, Winker 24, India 21, Naquin 19, Farmer 16, Stephenson, Aristides Aquino 10)

5+ SBs: 2 (India 12, Naquin 5)

BEST BUY: Joey Votto

Votto spiked a huge season selling out for power and smashing 36 HR with a .938 OPS in 533 PA. He will be 38 years old next season which is what will keep his price in check and why he is their Best Buy. He is trending around pick-171 in early drafts and I suspect he will remain outside of the Top 150. Even if he doesn’t repeat 2021 – and I doubt he will – this profile feels like a relatively safe .250/30 at CI or UT.

ON THE RISE: Jonathan India

The reigning NL Rookie of the Year had an excellent .269/.376/.459 line with 21 HR and 12 SB in 631 PA. His stock had dipped severely since being drafted 5th overall back in 2018 with his eye being the only thing keeping him from some pretty uninspiring numbers. He walked at a 13% rate in the minors, fueling a .369 OBP sandwiched by an otherwise bland .254 AVG and .410 SLG.

The eye was present in the majors (11% BB%), too, but the key to his breakout was a power surge, resulting in a .190 ISO. I’m not sure I see additional power in 2022, though he should maintain his 20-something pop and push for 100+ runs and even more SBs (15-18). I wonder if winning the Rookie of the Year will raise his early ADP of 104. Anything outside of the Top 100 is a price I will pay, but if starts to surge, I might pullback with the likes of Jake Cronenworth, DJ LeMahieu, and Chris Taylor going right after him.

OFF THE RADAR: Jose Barrero

What am I missing here? Is he not clearly their top shortstop option next year? The 24-year-old was called up in 2020 after only reaching High-A in 2019 and he predictably struggled with a literal 0 wRC+ in 68 PA, but his high minors run this year was fantastic. He had a 135 wRC+ in 180 Double-A PA and jumped to 158 in 200 PA at Triple-A. He got another MLB look and only mustered a 62 wRC+ in 56 PA. I’m not putting a ton into his 124 MLB PA thus far in terms of how much it will impact his opportunity for 2022 because he has the defense to hold the position while they let his bat develop.

Kyle Farmer had a great July (1.147 OPS, 5 HR in 90), but four of his six months were at .630 or worse. His big breakout season yielded a 91 wRC+ and he’s entering his age-31 season. Barrero needs to sharpen his approach a bit, but the power and speed are there to be impactful on the fantasy landscape if he gets a real opportunity.

HOT TAKE: Tyler Stephenson hits 25 HR.

Stephenson had a solid rookie season, posting a 111 wRC+ with 10 HR in 402 PA. He played 23 games at 1B which supplemented his playing time in addition to his timeshare behind the dish with Tucker Barnhart. Barnhart has been traded to Detroit and Stephenson now has the lead role. While he played 132 games last year, he only started 82 and 65 of those came behind the dish.

He should start closer to 90-95 games at catcher this year and could get another 12-15 at 1B/DH for 100-110 starts, pushing his PA total to around 450. But this call isn’t driven by playing time because another 50 on his 2021 total wouldn’t drive such a power jump. He is just scratching the surface of his power. I see a .200+ ISO and a huge breakout season for the 24-year-old catcher.

ICYMI: Lucas Sims looked really sharp in his last 15 appearances: 1.26 ERA, 0.49 WHIP, 50% K, 0% BB in 14.3 IP. He might be ready to run with the closer’s role.

IF THE DH RETURNS: Apart from using it to get guys off their feet like Joey Votto, Tyler Stephenson, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Moustakas, it could create a decent opportunity for Aristides Aquino. He hasn’t done much since that flash in 2019, but the power is still evident.