Atlanta Braves: Too Soon for a Max Fried Contract Extension

As we continue to look at possible extension candidates for the Atlanta Braves this offseason, we look at why it’s too soon for Max Fried. 

The offseason leads to a lot of talks about players who could be extended and the Atlanta Braves several young players that fit this mold.

I already wrote about Dansby Swanson and why I think the Braves should look to extend him.

Now let’s look at Max Fried and the possibility that he gets extended this offseason.

Fried is 27 years old and will turn 28 in January. He’s entering his second year of arbitration and is expected to get a big raise to around $7 million.

The Braves have three more years of control on Fried from 2022-24.

That seems crazy because Fried has already spent parts of five years with the Braves.

In those five seasons, he has a 3.34 ERA in 447 innings with 447 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.230. He finished top five in the NL Cy Young voting in 2020, has won two Gold Gloves, and won his first Silver Slugger in 2021 (possibly the last Silver Slugger for a pitcher).

Fried has also pitched 57.2 innings in the postseason for the Braves and has a 4.06 ERA, 59 strikeouts, and a WHIP of 1.26.

And, of course, there was that outstanding 6 inning shutout performance in Game 6 to clinch the World Series.

But Should the Braves Extend Max Fried

I would say, No.

That answer probably seems odd as I already wrote that I would extend Swanson and Fried is clearly more valuable than him.

But extending starting pitchers is a much riskier business. If you extend a starting pitcher, especially one like Max Fried who will probably cost $20 million a year, and he blows out an elbow — that suddenly becomes a lot of dead money for essentially two years.

Injuries are a part of the game and you could make that argument against extending anyone, but it’s definitely a lot riskier with pitchers.

Fried has had his injury issues and missed time almost every season — mostly just with blisters.

Still, that would give me enough pause to not extend him … now.

He’s thrown 165.2 innings twice in his career now. If he goes out in 2022 and proves he can make 30-plus starts and throw 180-200 innings, then maybe my view on his durability changes.

Plus, he’ll pitch all of 2022 at age 28 and the Braves control him through his age 30 season. How far are you going to extend him into his 30s?

Maybe you see about extending him through his age 32 season. But I doubt Fried would want to do that as his best bet to capitalize on his earnings is to hit free agency after his age 30 season.

The better play here for the Braves might be to try and buy out the rest of his arbitration years before he gets even more expensive.

Fried also isn’t a metric darling with a low Whiff%, chase rate, and fastball spin. But he also doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, and Braves fans know how great of a pitcher he is.

This is a tough one for me as I love Fried, but it also scares me to commit a lot of money long-term to any pitcher. It’s probably best, for now, that the Braves just let things play out for Fried.