Baker Mayfield was pretty good in 2020 for the Browns, in part because he's a good player, but also thanks to Kevin Stefanski's system, which features one of the league's best offensive lines and provides a nice balance of run and pass. There's also that young, physical, fast defense that was only supposed to get better in '21.
But injuries on both sides of the ball -- starting with Mayfield -- have sidetracked a promising start to the 2021 campaign and the Browns, who were 3-1 on Oct. 3 now find themselves 5-5 and in last place in the AFC North. Just so we're clear: This isn't all Mayfield's fault, but he's got one more year on his rookie deal (he'll make more than $18 million in '22) and if the team wants to re-sign him it'll likely cost north of $35 million a year. That's a hard figure to square with how he's played this season, which is a long-winded way of saying: Maybe the Browns will look to the draft for his replacement.
Kenny Pickett has been the "from outta nowhere" story of the college football season, mirroring in some ways what we saw from Zach Wilson and Joe Burrow in previous years. The difference, and it's something we've noted in recent weeks, is that we don't have Pickett with a first-round grade (while Wilson and Burrow were first-rounders in our mind) but that doesn't mean at least one NFL team feels differently, especially when you factor in the economics of a rookie contract versus franchise-QB money.
It's just one of the many storylines to keep an eye on as we move through the pre-draft process.
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Josh Edwards, Chris Trapasso and I do a weekly draft show on YouTube and you can watch this week's episode here
Alright, keep reading to see how all 32 picks unfold.
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One other thing, and this is important: now that we're past the midway point of the season, we're using the 2022 NFL Draft order (via tankathon, with results prior to Monday's game) to determine selections 1-32 below.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
Oregon
• Jr
• 6'5"
/ 258 lbs
This is a familiar spot for Thibodeaux because he's been as good as advertised this season. But there may not be that much difference between the Oregon standout and Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Michigan
• Jr
• 6'7"
/ 268 lbs
The Texans need a QB, and a lot will change this offseason at the position, but with no obvious QB1 worth taking this high, Houston targets Hutchinson, who for us, is 1A. compared to Thibodeaux.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Evan Neal
OL
Alabama
• Jr
• 6'7"
/ 350 lbs
The Jets have to protect Zach Wilson (once he gets healthy) -- this should be the mantra to begin every draft meeting the team has. Neal is an athletic marvel who has excelled at several O-line positions for the Crimson Tide.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Notre Dame
• Jr
• 6'4"
/ 220 lbs
The Jags have invested in defensive backs in recent drafts, though they've already traded 2020 first-rounder CJ Henderson. Either way, the defense remains a concern and Hamilton has a chance to be special.
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From
Miami Dolphins
Round 1 - Pick 5
LSU
• Jr
• 6'0"
/ 190 lbs
The Eagles have three first-round picks, and it sure seems that Jalen Hurts is making a case for why he deserves the job beyond 2021. And if that's the case, it's reasonable to think Philly will bolster its defense early and often. Stingley hasn't played since suffering an injury last month but that will have zero impact on his draft stock.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Ikem Ekwonu
OT
NC State
• Jr
• 6'4"
/ 320 lbs
Daniel Jones has played well in Year 3 but issues along the O-line remain -- to the point that the team may think about using multiple first-round picks to fix the unit. And Ekwonu is one of our favorite players in this draft class. There's talk that he may have to move inside to guard but when you watch him play, he's perfectly suited to be a dominant tackle.
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From
Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 - Pick 7
Nakobe Dean
LB
Georgia
• Jr
• 5'11"
/ 231 lbs
With two of the top offensive tackles already off the board, New York looks to the other side of the ball. Dean plays with the type of urgency and physicality that has been lacking at times in the middle of the Jets' defense. And while Dean is playing on the best defense in the country, don't be fooled -- he's not riding on the coattails of a dominant defensive line -- he's been a huge reason for its success.
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From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 8
Iowa
• Jr
• 6'2"
/ 305 lbs
Linderbaum is one of the best offensive linemen in the country, and he's ever bit the top 10 pick, especially since the Giants lost Nick Gates to injury and his replacement, Billy Price, has struggled.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Matt Corral
QB
Ole Miss
• Soph
• 6'2"
/ 205 lbs
Taylor Heinicke was just about unstoppable on Sunday but we wonder if that has more to do with his uncanny ability to take it to the Bucs than, perhaps, him turning a corner. Either way, the Corral-to-WFT pairing has been a popular one for us in recent mock drafts because there doesn't appear to be a clear-cut franchise QB on the roster.
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From
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 10
Ohio State
• Jr
• 6'0"
/ 192 lbs
If we work from the assumption that Tua Tagovailoa is the future at QB -- and this is a shaky proposition given the reports that the team is interested in Deshaun Watson -- then it makes sense to continue to give him playmakers. Jaylen Waddle is having a solid rookie campaign and with only Waddle and DeVante Parker under contract after the season, adding Wilson would make a lot of sense.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Texas A&M
• Jr
• 6'4"
/ 290 lbs
Leal hasn't been as dominant in '21 as he was in '20 but not only does he easily pass the eye test, he's proven he can take over games against some of the best players in the country. Originally a defensive end, Leal, at 6-foot-4, 290, has the versatility and athleticism to play up and down the line, and that versatility would be welcome in Philly, where the Eagles' defense has been a bottom-third-in-the-league unit, according to Football Outsiders.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Clemson
• Jr
• 6'0"
/ 194 lbs
A.J. Terrell and Isaiah Oliver have been solid in coverage this year but Oliver has battled injuries and he's also in the final year of his deal. Booth could end up being one of the best cornerbacks to come out of Clemson in recent years, and he's proven that time and again during the '21 season.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Kaiir Elam
CB
Florida
• Jr
• 6'1"
/ 191 lbs
The team has already parted ways with 2020 first-rounder Jeff Gladney, and Patrick Peterson is on a one-year deal. Wide receiver could also be an option here but stockpiling defensive backs is never a bad strategy.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Alabama
• Jr
• 6'1"
/ 180 lbs
There are several teams in the market for QBs, and several are still on the board but the Broncos instead target a pass-catcher. Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Daesean Hamilton and Diontae Spencer are all in the final year of their contracts. Williams, who had to transfer from Ohio State to get consistent playing time, is making a legit case that he's WR1 as we head into the final month of the season.
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From
Indianapolis Colts
Round 1 - Pick 15
Purdue
• Jr
• 6'4"
/ 263 lbs
Karlaftis adds another dimension to the defensive line. Injuries and the pandemic saw him play limited snaps in '20 but Karlaftis was nearly impossible to stop in '19 when he recorded 17 TFLs and had 7.5 sacks.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Pittsburgh
• Jr
• 6'3"
/ 220 lbs
This is controversial, we get it. But if the Browns don't want to pay Baker Mayfield north of $35 million a year on a long-term deal, they could look to the draft. Pickett has been lights out this season and has ascended from Day 3 pick to likely hearing his name called in Round 1.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Kenyon Green
OL
Texas A&M
• Jr
• 6'4"
/ 323 lbs
The Bengals opted to take Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell and it appears to have been the right decision, but they still need to make protecting Joe Burrow a priority. Green can play either tackle or guard and he has the ability to be a Day 1 starter.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Auburn
• Jr
• 5'11"
/ 190 lbs
As the off-field issues mount, the Raiders have struggled on the field. The team released 2020 first-round CB Damon Arnette earlier this season and needs to restock the secondary. McCreary has been very good for the Tigers and he's done it against some of the best wide receivers in the country.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Devin Lloyd
LB
Utah
• Jr
• 6'3"
/ 235 lbs
Lloyd is a twitchy, sideline-to-sideline player who fits the mold of off-ball linebackers we've seen coming into the league the last 7-8 years, and in Carolina he'd make an already fast defense even quicker to the ball.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Jahan Dotson
WR
Penn State
• Jr
• 5'11"
/ 182 lbs
Dotson has been electric this season for the Nittany Lions, and he threatens defenses at all three levels. He's not going to break a lot of tackles but that assumes defenders are able to get their hands on him; he's as fast as he is elusive, and a legit home run threat every time he touches the ball, which sounds like something Justin Herbert would love in L.A.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Nevada
• 6'4"
/ 215 lbs
How healthy is Strong's knee? With a clean bill of health he'd be in the running for our QB1, but that will be the lingering question as we go through the draft process.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Drake London
WR
USC
• Jr
• 6'4"
/ 213 lbs
London, one of the few bright spots in a disappointing USC season, is sidelined with a fractured ankle. And while he won't run a 4.3 when healthy, London is a high-point-catch machine who can take over games; he'd be a welcome addition in New England where Mac Jones is already making a name for himself.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Washington
• Fr
• 6'7"
/ 328 lbs
The O-line has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks but Orlando Brown, Mike Remmers and Andrew Wylie are all in the final year of their current deals. Kirkland has anchored the Huskies' offensive line and has a chance to be a first-round talent.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Cincinnati
• Jr
• 6'3"
/ 200 lbs
Carlton Davis and Richard Sherman will be free agents after the season and no CB currently on the roster is signed beyond the '22 season. Gardner, meanwhile, is a long, press corner who fits Todd Bowles' system.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Mississippi State
• Jr
• 6'5"
/ 311 lbs
Dan Moore Jr. has been a pleasant surprise at times for the Steelers but Cross is a high-upside athletic offensive tackle who is having a strong season for Mississippi State.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Central Michigan
• Jr
• 6'6"
/ 303 lbs
Raimann is originally from Austria and moved from tight end to left tackle after the 2019 season, but you wouldn't know it to watch him play. He might be the most athletic O-lineman in the entire class, and he's just scratching the surface on his abilities.
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 27
Chris Olave
WR
Ohio State
• Jr
• 6'0"
/ 187 lbs
Ultimately, the Lions may end up moving around the draft board to target a QB (assuming they don't land one in free agency) but since we're not doing trades here, they take Olave 26 picks after getting Thibodeaux. As it stands, only Quintez Cephus and Amon-Ra St. Brown are under contract after this season.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Hill is part of a Wolverines defense that could end up seeing three players go in Round 1 next spring. He's underrated nationally but watch him play and it becomes clear pretty quickly that he's in the running for the best safety in the class after Hamilton.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Washington
• Jr
• 5'11"
/ 193 lbs
Even though McDuffie plays cornerback, and plays primarily outside, we get Tyrann Mathieu vibes when we watch him. We love him as a slot corner who serves as an enforcer in run support and locks down short and intermediate routes, though he has been balling out on the outside for the Huskies this season.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Jordan Davis
DL
Georgia
• Jr
• 6'6"
/ 336 lbs
Davis has consistently been a one-man wrecking crew for Georgia this season and he'll likely go much higher than this even if he doesn't offer much as a pass-rusher. He's a pocket-collapser which, on some level, transcends the play call.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
South Carolina
• Jr
• 6'4"
/ 258 lbs
The Titans' defense has turned a corner, and we all witnessed it together against the Rams in Week 9. Denico Autry, Jeffery Simmons and Harold Landry all registered sacks vs. Matthew Stafford, but there's always room for more pass-rushers. Enagbare is a twitched-up athlete who flashes every week, and will only get better with more reps and added muscle.
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Round 1 - Pick 32
Arkansas
• Jr
• 6'2"
/ 225 lbs
At 6-foot-3, 230 pounds, Burks is a Grown Man. He has all the tools to eventually be a WR1, and in the meantime, he can flourish in Davante Adams' wake.
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