Mastrodonato: For Red Sox rotation, Justin Verlander a more intriguing option than Eduardo Rodriguez

Sometime this week and no later than Wednesday evening, the Red Sox will learn if Eduardo Rodriguez has accepted his qualifying offer of one year, $18.4 million, and will thus take up about 10% of the team’s payroll in 2022.

Let that sink in.

On a Red Sox team that still has a handful of star players, the possibility exists that their No. 3 or No. 4 starter, one who had a 4.75 ERA in 2021 and a career 4.16 ERA, would be the fourth-highest paid player on the roster.

Even for a big-market team, that seems extreme. And while the Sox looked at this decision as a no-brainer (if Rodriguez declines and signs elsewhere, they’ll receive a draft pick just before the third round), they also run the risk of him accepting the offer and bringing their payroll way too close to the luxury tax threshold for comfort.

Now, if the threshold doesn’t matter and the Sox plan on spending freely this winter regardless — which they should — then sure, Rodriguez accepting the offer and returning to Boston on a salary meant to average those of the best 125 players in baseball isn’t a bad thing.

He’s more talented than the 4.75 ERA he posted this season, and the Red Sox feel strongly that his high strikeout rate was a better indicator than all those runs he allowed. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said last week he thought the Sox’ defense failed Rodriguez at times during the 2021 season. It remains unclear if the defense will be upgraded heading into 2022.

Bloom also said he’s negotiating with Rodriguez on a deal that would keep him in Boston longer than one year.

“If it lines up for everybody,” Bloom said. “It’s fair to expect that is something we’re going to explore simultaneously.”

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Rodriguez will receive $70 million over five years if he declines the offer and tests free agency.

How about spending that money on Justin Verlander, who will be more than 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery and entering his age-39 season with a brand new elbow? The caveat is that Verlander was also issued a qualifying offer, so the Red Sox would forfeit a draft pick at the end of the second round.

The future Hall of Famer is fresh, having thrown just six innings since 2019, when he won the Cy Young Award with a 2.58 ERA and 300 strikeouts in 223 innings at 36 years old.

Age is just a number when it comes to elite pitchers, especially those who have learned how to reinvent themselves later in their career. Velocity hasn’t been an issue for Verlander, who reportedly hit 97 mph in a workout last week.

If you had to bet on one player on a short-term contract for around $20 million a year, it’s hard to argue Rodriguez is a better choice than Verlander.

If you’re choosing Rodriguez because you need reliable, consistent innings, that’s not exactly him. His performance has fluctuated wildly over his career. He made a habit of getting hurt in his first few years. He missed the entire 2020 season with myocarditis, a condition that needs continued monitoring. And while he surprised a lot of people by staying healthy all year in 2021, reliable is not a word that comes to mind.

If you’re choosing Rodriguez because he has the most upside, that’s not him, either. He was a solid No. 2 starter-type in 2019, when he won 19 games with a 3.81 ERA. He also led the league in walks. He’s been more of a No. 3 or No. 4 starter for most of his career.

What you get with Rodriguez is familiarity. Alex Cora is like a father to him, Xander Bogaerts is like a brother and Christian Vazquez has been behind the plate for 72% of his major league career.

He represents semi-reliable innings with semi-decent upside. But teams will fall in love with his advanced metrics and it’s fair to assume he’ll get more money than he’ll end up being worth.

The Sox need innings, there’s no question. But they might be better off adding a few pitchers with that money and piecing it together with relievers while getting Cora some more bullpen options to work with.

Or go after Verlander, who could give the Sox the scariest one-two-three in baseball if he, Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi are pitching to their abilities.

Imagine that rotation in a playoff series. Scary.

This isn’t to say Rodriguez is a bad pitcher, not a good fit in Boston or anything like that. He’s been a valuable piece to this roster, as he has proven in the postseason.

He’s a charismatic guy who got scolded for pointing to his imaginary watch after retiring Carlos Correa in the ’21 American League Championship Series and threw his glove onto the mound in a fit after allowing a homer to Yasiel Puig in the ’18 World Series.

If he’s back in Boston next year, the Sox will be better for it.

But this is a team that unquestionably needs to find additional pitching talent. And if paying Rodriguez stops them from paying someone better, perhaps it’s not the best use of their resources.